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Questions for Native and Coronavirus discussion Thread

jmcsundance

Recruit
I have nothing of significance to offer but am thankful for this thread. Anecdotally, a long time ago in the Jurassic Period I was involved with immunological oncology research at one of the world's great research institutions. I was a minnow among the great whales who were at the forefront of what you may now know about histocompatibility, T-Cells and B-Cells, etc. It was a fascinating time. I mention it here because when the great scientific research minds dig deep, they deliver.

We'll get through this. We always have and we always will.
 

FeelLikeAStranger

How are ya now?
20 Year Member
Plan on at least 1-2 weeks more before supply of testing materials begins to catch up with demand, especially instruments and extraction kits. Tests are rolling out, but labs are out of RNA extractions kits for the CDC assay. QIAGEN has already sold twice as many RNA kits as they did all last year-truly staggering-and has dramatically ramped production. As different EUA’s are approved, it reduces the demand for some of the individual products in high demand. It’s a rationing situation across the board until manufacturing catches up, and the “hottest” areas are getting priority. So, here in the midwest...we’ll be waiting as the virus continues to spread without detection. Minnesota stopped their drive up sites because they are backlogged. Iowa is ramping up, but they have only been running about 50 a day max.

The entire biotech industry is trying to fill the void in a very short time, but the available inventory was finite.

We hit the 10000 infection mark this week just as I predicted. Now, will we see 100,000 by mid April? I still believe so. Testing volume is going to explode within 2 weeks and there will be a huge amount of positives as all the people who have been denied a test finally get one.
 

HuskerGene

A work in progress
10 Year Member
Plan on at least 1-2 weeks more before supply of testing materials begins to catch up with demand, especially instruments and extraction kits. Tests are rolling out, but labs are out of RNA extractions kits for the CDC assay. QIAGEN has already sold twice as many RNA kits as they did all last year-truly staggering-and has dramatically ramped production. As different EUA’s are approved, it reduces the demand for some of the individual products in high demand. It’s a rationing situation across the board until manufacturing catches up, and the “hottest” areas are getting priority. So, here in the midwest...we’ll be waiting as the virus continues to spread without detection. Minnesota stopped their drive up sites because they are backlogged. Iowa is ramping up, but they have only been running about 50 a day max.

The entire biotech industry is trying to fill the void in a very short time, but the available inventory was finite.

We hit the 10000 infection mark this week just as I predicted. Now, will we see 100,000 by mid April? I still believe so. Testing volume is going to explode within 2 weeks and there will be a huge amount of positives as all the people who have been denied a test finally get one.
This can be viewed as good news because even as confirmed cases rise the death toll will remain at the same level. This will lower the mortality rate from 3-4 % to maybe 1% or lower. Maybe not as bad of a killer as once believed.

But still a killer.
 

FeelLikeAStranger

How are ya now?
20 Year Member
This can be viewed as good news because even as confirmed cases rise the death toll will remain at the same level. This will lower the mortality rate from 3-4 % to maybe 1% or lower. Maybe not as bad of a killer as once believed.

But still a killer.

Does mortality rate really mean anything if you are sampling only a very small portion of the infected population, and/or are missing related deaths due to non-detection?

If 1,000,000 are infected and the mortality rate is 1%

Is that better than 500,000 at 2% with 500,000 undetected

How about 100,000 with a 10% mortality rate and 900,000 undetected?

With something unknown, unless you are sampling a large portion of the potentially infected population, essentially testing everyone, then mortality rates are artificial.

The only real “good news” is that you are testing and thus identifying and treating a higher % of the infected population and also identifying more uninfected. I don’t think “mortality rate” without context, really should give anyone hope or pause until we know more.

South Korea will probably give us a good estimate at some point as they are outpacing the rest of the world in testing their population.
 
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Red Crawdad

Varsity
10 Year Member
This can be viewed as good news because even as confirmed cases rise the death toll will remain at the same level. This will lower the mortality rate from 3-4 % to maybe 1% or lower. Maybe not as bad of a killer as once believed.

But still a killer.

We almost get too fixated on the mortality rate, especially when comparing it to the flu. For the flu, vaccinations and built in immunity from previous infections means that more people will not develop an infection, and therefore there is some herd immunity. If the flu infected everyone in the US, even with a predicted 0.1% mortality rate you're looking at 330,000 deaths. Last flu season, we had ~35,000 deaths. This means the percentage of the population was relatively low.

For the coronavirus, there is no herd immunity established, so the virus will spread much more easily. So even if the mortality rate was equivalent to the flu, the death toll will still be much higher. As seen from other countries, the rate seems to be higher.

Fingers crossed on the drug trials. Even they aren't 100% effective, any little bit will help immensely.
 

Native

ToungeInCheek since 2010
Staff member
10 Year Member
We almost get too fixated on the mortality rate, especially when comparing it to the flu. For the flu, vaccinations and built in immunity from previous infections means that more people will not develop an infection, and therefore there is some herd immunity. If the flu infected everyone in the US, even with a predicted 0.1% mortality rate you're looking at 330,000 deaths. Last flu season, we had ~35,000 deaths. This means the percentage of the population was relatively low.

For the coronavirus, there is no herd immunity established, so the virus will spread much more easily. So even if the mortality rate was equivalent to the flu, the death toll will still be much higher. As seen from other countries, the rate seems to be higher.

Fingers crossed on the drug trials. Even they aren't 100% effective, any little bit will help immensely.

I added a herd immunity post to the other thread (#25) , was something I had been meaning to do. Anti-vaxxers baffle me when they claim herd immunity not real. It can be mathematically modeled, observed, etc.... I don't get them and their ignorance.
 
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Huskerthom

All Big 10
5 Year Member
I added a herd immunity post to the other thread (#25) , was something I had been meaning to do. Anti-vaxxers baffle me when they claim herd immunity not real. It can be mathematically modeled, observed, etc.... I don't get them and their ignorance.
Many Antivaxxers are that way because of a personal tragedy. A girl I went to school with swears her kid is now severely handicapped (mentally) because of vaccinations. Those folks are more understandable then the rich Moms that think their kids are above it.
 

Native

ToungeInCheek since 2010
Staff member
10 Year Member
Many Antivaxxers are that way because of a personal tragedy. A girl I went to school with swears her kid is now severely handicapped (mentally) because of vaccinations. Those folks are more understandable then the rich Moms that think their kids are above it.

Animated GIF


Maybe @Mack The Shark IS onto something. 'Cause I am not going to go down the antivaxx path. :)

Basically Native is the smartest ****** on the board.
 
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FeelLikeAStranger

How are ya now?
20 Year Member

This is really informative on testing numbers.

Look at the total vs. in the last week by state.

Most states did the bulk of their tests in the last week.

Many states are lagging badly,

Very, very small numbers getting tested yet, but these numbers will explode in the next two weeks. The tests are finally getting out there and key high throughput reference labs (Quest, LabCorp) where everyone sends samples to, have EUA. But, key components still rationed, especially outside of current hot zones. (See Fauci’s comments today.) More EUA’s by the day and more companies, and other state labs are validating LDT’s. It’s been a g

So far, per this tracker, only 150,000 total tests, not sure how many of those were last week. I wish they had that number totaled, and also had graphs with slider bars so you could check dates, but this is great info.

We’ll be able to test millions a week within 2 weeks, so thankfully the gate-keeping who can get tested will end and we can test as many people as possible until we get a handle on the spread, and then start REtesting people to determine they are no longer shedding virus.

Some #’s I’ve seen on co-infections (Italy, I think) showed that around 20% COVID+ cases had secondary infections like FluA, pneumonia, RSV, etc..
Current guidelines in many states won’t test for COVID if they find other bacterial or viral first. Those folks would be the worst if they also had both, and many anecdotal stories out there of just that. APHL’s guidelines today, I think, addressed this crucial need.
 
D

Deleted member 3889

Guest

This is really informative on testing numbers.

Look at the total vs. in the last week by state.

Most states did the bulk of their tests in the last week.

Many states are lagging badly,

Very, very small numbers getting tested yet, but these numbers will explode in the next two weeks. The tests are finally getting out there and key high throughput reference labs (Quest, LabCorp) where everyone sends samples to, have EUA. But, key components still rationed, especially outside of current hot zones. (See Fauci’s comments today.) More EUA’s by the day and more companies, and other state labs are validating LDT’s. It’s been a g

So far, per this tracker, only 150,000 total tests, not sure how many of those were last week. I wish they had that number totaled, and also had graphs with slider bars so you could check dates, but this is great info.

We’ll be able to test millions a week within 2 weeks, so thankfully the gate-keeping who can get tested will end and we can test as many people as possible until we get a handle on the spread, and then start REtesting people to determine they are no longer shedding virus.

Some #’s I’ve seen on co-infections (Italy, I think) showed that around 20% COVID+ cases had secondary infections like FluA, pneumonia, RSV, etc..
Current guidelines in many states won’t test for COVID if they find other bacterial or viral first. Those folks would be the worst if they also had both, and many anecdotal stories out there of just that. APHL’s guidelines today, I think, addressed this crucial need.

Have you been tracking what's going on in NYC? Some are predicting 100% hospital capacity as early as next week. It sounds like they're on the verge of running out of ventilators and hospital beds.

 

Oracle of Lincoln

Junior Varsity
5 Year Member
Have you been tracking what's going on in NYC? Some are predicting 100% hospital capacity as early as next week. It sounds like they're on the verge of running out of ventilators and hospital beds.

Truly tragic for NYC today and it’s only going to worsen.
 

Nehunter88

Varsity
5 Year Member
I guess I'm having a hard time understanding the importance of testing everyone, or almost everyone.

I can have a healthy person sitting in line at a drive thru test, they test negative. Problem is if they have been around anyone the previous 14 days, they could have been exposed and end up being positive two or three days after getting their negative test. Which means they have a false sense of security and may go out and spread the virus.

So the only way the test does a healthy person any good, is if they've been isolated for 14 days before getting the test, and if that was the case, they don't need the test they should be negative because they've been isolated for 14 days. To me testing healthy people just because they want a test is a waste of a test.

We can look at Nebraska's numbers, they test only the high risk. People that have traveled out of the state, been around someone who has traveled out of the state, been around someone who is positive. From the news conference yesterday out of 800 tests they have had 38 positives, or just under 5%. So testing only high risk people still less then 5% are positive. There is no reason to think that percentage will be higher if you test healthy people that just want a test, in fact it should go down.

Will the number of positive cases go up, sure it will, but it won't change the percentages. In the end staying home is far more important then getting a test. If you test positive for influenza A or B, the best thing to do is go home and not spread it around, the exact same advice works for Covid 19. The test may tell you which one you have, but at a time when tests are in short supply, and the treatment is the same, why not keep testing those that need it and not healthy people.
 

Huskerthom

All Big 10
5 Year Member

This is really informative on testing numbers.

Look at the total vs. in the last week by state.

Most states did the bulk of their tests in the last week.

Many states are lagging badly,

Very, very small numbers getting tested yet, but these numbers will explode in the next two weeks. The tests are finally getting out there and key high throughput reference labs (Quest, LabCorp) where everyone sends samples to, have EUA. But, key components still rationed, especially outside of current hot zones. (See Fauci’s comments today.) More EUA’s by the day and more companies, and other state labs are validating LDT’s. It’s been a g

So far, per this tracker, only 150,000 total tests, not sure how many of those were last week. I wish they had that number totaled, and also had graphs with slider bars so you could check dates, but this is great info.

We’ll be able to test millions a week within 2 weeks, so thankfully the gate-keeping who can get tested will end and we can test as many people as possible until we get a handle on the spread, and then start REtesting people to determine they are no longer shedding virus.

Some #’s I’ve seen on co-infections (Italy, I think) showed that around 20% COVID+ cases had secondary infections like FluA, pneumonia, RSV, etc..
Current guidelines in many states won’t test for COVID if they find other bacterial or viral first. Those folks would be the worst if they also had both, and many anecdotal stories out there of just that. APHL’s guidelines today, I think, addressed this crucial need.
This is definitely showing that the move over the last 100 years away from rural living and towards city living does not help protecting against the spread of disease. Well over half are in 4 states with very large cities. Small towns are already meeting the definition of social distancing. When is the last time you went to a cafe in Brady or Odessa or any of the other 100 towns in NE and there was more than 5 or ten people? Church and county fairs are pretty much the only time you see large gatherings in small towns.
 

Californication

Varsity
15 Year Member
Plan on at least 1-2 weeks more before supply of testing materials begins to catch up with demand, especially instruments and extraction kits. Tests are rolling out, but labs are out of RNA extractions kits for the CDC assay. QIAGEN has already sold twice as many RNA kits as they did all last year-truly staggering-and has dramatically ramped production. As different EUA’s are approved, it reduces the demand for some of the individual products in high demand. It’s a rationing situation across the board until manufacturing catches up, and the “hottest” areas are getting priority. So, here in the midwest...we’ll be waiting as the virus continues to spread without detection. Minnesota stopped their drive up sites because they are backlogged. Iowa is ramping up, but they have only been running about 50 a day max.

The entire biotech industry is trying to fill the void in a very short time, but the available inventory was finite.

We hit the 10000 infection mark this week just as I predicted. Now, will we see 100,000 by mid April? I still believe so. Testing volume is going to explode within 2 weeks and there will be a huge amount of positives as all the people who have been denied a test finally get one.
with the lack of physical distancing I am seeing in some areas, not just the lack of testing but lack of sense is going to drive the numbers up over the next month. All those kids in Florida are walking time bombs when they go home because they clearly do not believe this is real.
 
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Californication

Varsity
15 Year Member
I guess I'm having a hard time understanding the importance of testing everyone, or almost everyone.

I can have a healthy person sitting in line at a drive thru test, they test negative. Problem is if they have been around anyone the previous 14 days, they could have been exposed and end up being positive two or three days after getting their negative test. Which means they have a false sense of security and may go out and spread the virus.

So the only way the test does a healthy person any good, is if they've been isolated for 14 days before getting the test, and if that was the case, they don't need the test they should be negative because they've been isolated for 14 days. To me testing healthy people just because they want a test is a waste of a test.

We can look at Nebraska's numbers, they test only the high risk. People that have traveled out of the state, been around someone who has traveled out of the state, been around someone who is positive. From the news conference yesterday out of 800 tests they have had 38 positives, or just under 5%. So testing only high risk people still less then 5% are positive. There is no reason to think that percentage will be higher if you test healthy people that just want a test, in fact it should go down.

Will the number of positive cases go up, sure it will, but it won't change the percentages. In the end staying home is far more important then getting a test. If you test positive for influenza A or B, the best thing to do is go home and not spread it around, the exact same advice works for Covid 19. The test may tell you which one you have, but at a time when tests are in short supply, and the treatment is the same, why not keep testing those that need it and not healthy people.
In South Kirea, they tested everyone, and any positives resulted in tracing contacts and isolating those contacted people. Not 100% effective, but definitely flattened the curve. That might have worked early, but will not work now in my opinion. people truly should be self isolating and maintaining a physical distance barrier.
 
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