College football as we know it is done and over with. With the portal, nil, rule changes, rising tuition and conference realignment, i think it’s the end of the sport. the playoff decision was just another nail in the coffin. my bet is we have only 4 more years before schools drop out in droves.
There are a few different paths of conversation relating to 'Big time college football' that kind of get folded into one.
First, the changes to the 'amateur' status of the game, NIL, transfer portal, etc. are all things I don't like, but are here and not going anywhere. These things have fundamentally changed the way programs recruit and manage rosters. It's likely overall a financial betterment for the players and certainly gives them more freedom and earning ability, which was kind of the whole point of Keller's suit that started NIL and the creation of the Transfer Portal. I don't disagree that the athletes are part of a huge money making endeavor and likely deserve or have earned the right to profit from their roles in it. Millions of dollars in addition to a full scholarship? Eh. That could be debated, but again some form of it is here to stay.
Conference realignment is another one I just kind of shrug about now. I enjoyed the system I grew up with. Big 10, Big 8, Pac 8, SWC, SEC, ACC and the bowl system. It wasn't perfect, but it worked most years. It's been in constant flux now since the SWC dissolved and I think change is now the new norm. I do think we'll end up with the two big 'Super Confernces' in the B1G and the SEC and the rest of what was P5 will be fighting over the scraps. Again, money driven. TV deal driven.
On the tuition end of things, I don't think that has anything to do with athletics, especially not with football. Tuition is a problem as a standalone discussion and is driven by a lot of factors, greed being one of them. Academia is a multi billion dollar industry, not just a means of educating our young people and I don't align athletics or football with that.
To your last point, I think we end up with the two 'Super Conferences' and maybe a third the combined strengths of what's left of the Big 12 and the ACC at one level, and everything else that is currently part of FBS football taking a step down because they won't be invited. Their costs and income will likely decrease and they should be able to operate at a lesser capacity similar to how FCS works now. Again, more change.
We aren't going to lose football as a whole. It just won't look anything like it does today.