No I stick by what I said. His schpeil will run thin after a while.
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Predicting 8 or less wins
- Thread starter Rednu
- Start date
I imagine that if he has a nice year or two, some major programs are going to be interested in him. But the Big Ten $$$ complicates things. Someone would have to really be willing to shell out the cash. I thought for sure that Jeff B would go home to Louisville this past offseason. Didn't happen.
Just from what I have read, we have a lot of potential depth, just not proven depth. But like many pessimists, I have heard about a lot of good things in August the last few years. Now, like most on this site, I want proof. And no more disappointment in December.
Having said that, I believe by the second half of the season, even with some unforeseen injuries, we will have some proven depth. And the team in November, will be better than the team in August. But I still want proof.
As for the number of wins and losses, I also believe some of the BIG West will be better, which will have a major affect on the end result.
Having said that, I believe by the second half of the season, even with some unforeseen injuries, we will have some proven depth. And the team in November, will be better than the team in August. But I still want proof.
As for the number of wins and losses, I also believe some of the BIG West will be better, which will have a major affect on the end result.
I am guessing you know something. All the reports I have read are:
- RB situation has a lot of versatility. Mills a strong runner.
- OL I can agree with you. Doesn't seem bad but no amazing reports either
- LBs agree with question marks
- QB depth? How many teams do you know with tried and tested QB depth? We have a lot of value in QB room
- Secondary a ?? Everything I have heard was this could be the strength of the defense and that is saying something.
We are young in many areas but don't underestimate the talent on this team.
Massey needs to put the crack pipe down and step away! I hope they enjoy eating a lot of crow at seasons end........... Honestly believe their W's and L's are laughable.....
I agree. Massy is a computer. Data in Data out. Junk in Junk out. All they have to base their predictions on is the results of previous years. Like any computer they will start updating on a stronger basis any new information from this season. Any game performances that we do that exceed their present measurables or measurables by our future opponents will have a drastic effect on those predictions. Utilizing our first 6 games of last year into any formula is likely to flaw the data.
I looked at it terms of each game and what is the liklihood of winning. We will win some toss up games and likely lose some too. Here is how I came up with 8 wins:
| Current Season Prediction | |
| % chanc | |
| Winning | |
| South Alabama | 0.95 |
| Colorado | 0.7 |
| Northern IL | 0.95 |
| IL | 0.8 |
| tOSU | 0.3 |
| Northwestern | 0.6 |
| Minnesota | 0.5 |
| Indiana | 0.8 |
| Purdue | 0.6 |
| Wisconsin | 0.5 |
| Maryland | 0.7 |
| Iowa | 0.6 |
| Total | 8 |
Especially killer Terps !!!
Anyho, I had read Massey's COMPOSITE rankings, week by week
https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm
Right now ...... (26 rankings so far; eventually built to +100 rankings)
- tOSU .... #4
- Michigan .... #8
- PSU .... #12
- Iowa .... #16
- Wisconsin .... #26
- MSU .... #27
- NW .... #30
- Gophers .... #38
- Huskers .... #51. Massey only, #45, see https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/ncaa-d1/ratings
- Purdue .... #55, Indy .... #64, Terps .... #73, Illinois .... #99, Rutgers .... #108
The Worst: https://sites.google.com/site/cslratings/home/division-1-fbs
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And yet you have us favored in 9 games with two games a toss up. If we split the toss up games that is 10. It appears to me you are saying we are going to lose a bunch of games we are favored in and thus underachieving.
always a 1st timeWell, OSU was by far the best team we faced in the 2nd half, so showing that we stretched with them as far as we did showed a lot. But it's also true any 8 win season has lots of wins against mediocre teams in it. Have to give the team credit for bringing home the easier wins as well. Only have to compare to the first half to see those can't be taken for granted.
What I'm really trying to say, HWM, is that my reasons for predicting 8 wins are way better than your reasons (and Thill's by the way) for predicting 8 wins. I'm going to bookmark this page so when we finish 8-4 I can say, "See, I was right."
I agree with you on LB's and RB's, however the OL is much bigger, stronger, more mature etc. Big reason to be optimistic about them. And QB depth? That's really not questionable. You have AM, Vedral, who started for Frost to start the 2016 season at UCF, Bunch who has experience, and then Luke McCaffrey is going to be a stud. QB is not a concern if I'm being honest. And the secondary should be much improved this year. We get Bootle, Jackson, and Williams back. That's also not even considering the rise of Cam Taylor either. Expect big improvements from the OL and secondary.
I don't see why so many people are penciling a loss to the Gophers. The Huskers blasted them last year. Are people expecting a huge step back on offense or defense? Maybe expecting a huge leap forward for Minnesota?
EDIT: Add to the fact that was the first win for an 0-6 team. They were just learning how to win. I wouldn't be surprised by another big win this season.
EDIT: Add to the fact that was the first win for an 0-6 team. They were just learning how to win. I wouldn't be surprised by another big win this season.
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That's one way to read what he said; another would be that he's saying that we're likely to lose some games if we're only given a 60% chance to win (or less), and we play a bunch of them. You could have an entire season where you're favored to win by 51% yet easily end up with a losing record if the games truly are close to 50-50. It seems like you and others keep thinking that Nebraska being favored to win should be chalked up as a win. Yes, we should beat South Alabama and Northern Illinois, but there are 10 other games on the schedule where our opponent has at least a 1/5 chance to win (at worst) up to our having a 3/10 chance of beating OSU. The math says that Colorado (.70) and Ohio State (.30) should equal one win and one loss. Ditto for Minnesota (.50) and Wisconsin (.50). That puts us at 4-2. The remaining four games roughly average out to winning 4 and losing 2.
Of course, that's all math, and it doesn't directly predict the real world.
I'd personally put our chances against OSU at slightly better than 50/50, but I also think that it's roughly the same odds that we lose one of the three games with Illinois, Indiana, and Maryland. If we can split the games between Iowa and Wisconsin, we're at 4-2. Add in two wins against South Alabama and Northern Illinois, and we're at 6-2. The problem is that we'll barely be favored for the remaining 4 games. I think that we'll beat Colorado, but I think that we'll lose to either Northwestern or Purdue, so we're at 8-3. I think that the game with Minnesota, which will likely be close to even as far as odds, will determine whether or not we finish 8-4 or 9-3. There are too many injuries and unexpected things to happen between now and then to say, one way or the other. Apparently, I'm not alone as most oddsmakers are putting our over/under at 8.5.
