Did we take a step back? I don't know, and won't know until we see action on the field. One thing that has been mentioned a LOT over the past few years deals with 2AM's ability to win, especially in crunch time. There is a perception that he is lacking in that ability, so I decided to take a look at it.
I'll start this by saying that I've been a big 2AM fan. I think he's a tremendous athlete, wonderful spokesperson, and great role model. His pure athleticism put us into great position to win many games. Unfortunately, there were some shortcomings that resulted in a lot of losses. Was it all on 2AM? Or was it due to coaching, play calling, o-line, lack of a running game, receivers not getting open, poor ST play that put the O in bad field position or bad overall game position, or defensive issues? I don't know, and arguments can be made for all of it.
With that said, however, I decided to look at 2AM's play late in games. I started by trying to define "clutch" play as a late-game drive where the team needed a score to tie or take the lead, but as I went through the games, I began to recall those games/situations (I know, it was painful) and felt there were many more "clutch" type situations during the fourth quarter where a drive for a score was "clutch": when we needed a score to extend a fragile lead, or when a score was needed to put us in position to possibly pull off the win. For example, there were many games where we entered the fourth quarter tied, or really close, so a drive for a score, even early in the quarter was crucial. Therefore, rather than an objective set of criteria (e.g., limited time remaining, one-score differential, etc.), I went with a subjective set of criteria based on whether the NU drive was crucial: if we needed a score or drive to make it competitive, tie it, take the lead, win it, or ice the game.
I'll caveat my results by saying I don't give a 100% guarantee on all of the numbers. I went through the play-by-play of every game from 2018-2021. I think I have everything correct, but may have missed an attempt, completion, or something. Additionally, I did not calculate the times 2AM did something great with his feet. This exercise was simply to look at overall performance, and passing proficiency.
Overall: 2AM was 14-24 overall, a 36.8% win percentage. In those 38 games, there were 23 with "clutch" situations in the fourth quarter (again, my subjective assessment where NU was either in need of a score to either put them in position to be competitive, tie, take the lead, or extend a tight lead). That means we were in close, suspenseful games in the fourth quarter 60.5% of the time (that's a lot of close games). As the starter, 2AM was 4-19 in those close games, for a 17.4% win percentage. And, those four wins were against MSU (7-6 final record) in 2018, IL (6-7) in 2019, and Purdue (2-4) and Rutgers (3-6) in 2020.
Overtime Games and Turnovers: One disturbing thing I found (and we all knew and carried that feeling in our gut during clutch times) was that OT and TOs were not good for 2AM and NU. There have been three OT games during the 2AM/SF era, and we are 0-3 in OT games. Two were lost because of INTs (NW in 2018 and MSU in 2021) and the other ended when 2AM took a 7-yard sack (NEVER take a sack, just throw it away) on 3rd and 9 against CO in 2019 (making it a 48-yard FG attempt that was missed).
Turnovers plagued 2AM for his entire career. I know others have mentioned his NCAA leading stats regarding fumbles, but both INTs and fumbles seemed to come at the wrong time. In those 23 games with "clutch" situations, 11 games (including the two OT games mentioned above) involved at least one 2AM turnover (INT or fumble) on a "clutch" drive. That's a game-killing 4th quarter turnover in almost half of the close games (47.8% of the time). You can't win many close games with a late TO.
QB Passing Stats: For his career at NU, 2AM was 670-1055 for 45 TDs and 30 INTs. That gives him an overall completion percentage of 63.5%, TDs on 4.3% of attempts, INTs on 2.8% of throws, and a TD-to-INT ratio of 1.5. In "clutch" 4th quarter drives, he was 127-215 for 5 TDs and 11 INTs. That's a "clutch" completion percentage of 59.1% (a little worse than overall, but not much of a difference), TDs on only 2.3% of attempts (almost half his overall TD rate), INTs on 5.1% (much higher INT rate), and a TD-to-INT ratio of 0.45. That TD-to-INT ratio is very drastic. He threw more than twice as many INTs as TDs in 4th quarter "clutch" situations.
Again, I was a big 2AM fan. I felt he put is position to win games (sometimes single-handedly), and he was a wonderful young man, representing the university very well, and he gave everything he had. But, this information puts stats behind some of the feelings many of us had during crunch time in games. As I said before, it obviously wasn't all on him. Blame for poor performances can be given to many. I was somewhat torn when I heard he was going to transfer, but ultimately thought it was the best thing for him, SF, and Nebraska.