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PAC 12 meltdown

The PAC needs to stay together and vital. As college football fans, we should all be concerned about raiding and disabling other conferences. College football will not be the same if major college football sheds 50 programs. Huge loss for the phenomenon of college football.
 
Colorado special called board meeting this Wednesday. More PAC 12 dominos may be falling.

RESOLVED that the Board of Regents go into executive session. As permitted by section 24-6-402 (3), Colorado Revised Statutes, the board will discuss the following matter as announced and pursuant to the subsection as listed below:
- (a)(II), Legal advice on a specific matter - athletics update on PAC 12


 
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Ate lunch with a friend of mine today who has a close tie to the Big 12. Picked up a few nuggets that may or may not be factual.

- There are no done deals but CU is likely to go to the Big 12.

- There are supposedly concerns by ESPN and/or FOX re: the media $$ value of Utah. Ironically, they are the Pac 12 champ. Yet they might not get an invitation.

- Arizona may get an invitation, ASU may not.

Take all of this for what it’s worth; probably a nickel.
 
I wish the B1G would throw KU a bone and bring them into the conference. It would be huge for BB. I did undergrad at NU and grad at KU. It allows me to go from GBR in the fall to Rock Chalk Jayhawk in the winter!
It’s also the fastest path for the B10 to win a title in NCAA hoops.
 



And Utah and ASU are reaching out to say they aren’t going to the Big 12. So maybe the four corners talk is overblown?

If you look at what they are saying, they want to stay together if the terms are right. That isn’t new. And the AZ president goes on to state that AZ would fit fine with the Big 12. He’s hedging.

Nothing has really changed in 6 months; the PAC 12 still has no media deal. The best number they’ve gotten so far is $22 million per school from ESPN and Amazon. That number is before production costs of the streaming portion, which is estimated at $5-7 million per school. So the PAC 12 net per school current sits at $15-17 million.

The Big 12 has a mostly linear deal with Fox and ESPN, at $31.7 million per school, including production costs.

The PAC is hoping for some Hail Mary to get them to $31.7 million like the Big 12. That’s not going to happen. And even if it did, you can deduct $5-7 million for production costs of the streaming piece, which will be more than half of the deal. ESPN is only offering 1 game per week.

So…the PAC presidents are patiently waiting for the final deal. And waiting. And waiting. The problem is, there’s no better deal to be had, as all of the networks have a full inventory of games now. That’s why things have gone silent.

If and when the PAC gets a “best and final” deal…

- how much less, net, will it be compared to the Big 12? Unless something really weird happens, it will be $5 million less per year minimum, and likely $10 million less.

- more importantly, how much of the content will be streaming? Barring another network getting back into the bidding (highly unlikely), 50-75% of PAC games will be streaming. I guarantee you that the PAC presidents and ADs aren’t going to go for that, and the AZ president said as much.

- finally, even by some miracle the deal was “as good” as the Big 12, will Oregon and Washington sign a fresh new GOR for 5 or 6 years? Nope.

Brett Yormark is patiently waiting. Leadership matters.
 
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If you look at what they are saying, they want to stay together if the terms are right. That isn’t new. And the AZ president goes on to state that AZ would fit fine with the Big 12. He’s hedging.

Nothing has really changed in 6 months; the PAC 12 still has no media deal. The best number they’ve gotten so far is $22 million per school from ESPN and Amazon. That number is before production costs of the streaming portion, which is estimated at $5-7 million per school. So the PAC 12 net per school current sits at $15-17 million.

The Big 12 has a mostly linear deal with Fox and ESPN, at $31.7 million per school, including production costs.

The PAC is hoping for some Hail Mary to get them to $31.7 million like the Big 12. That’s not going to happen. And even if it did, you can deduct $5-7 million for production costs of the streaming piece, which will be more than half of the deal. ESPN is only offering 1 game per week.

So…the PAC presidents are patiently waiting for the final deal. And waiting. And waiting. The problem is, there’s no better deal to be had, as all of the networks have a full inventory of games now. That’s why things have gone silent.

If and when the PAC gets a “best and final” deal…

- how much less, net, will it be compared to the Big 12? Unless something really weird happens, it will be $5 million less per year minimum, and likely $10 million less.

- more importantly, how much of the content will be streaming? Barring another network getting back into the bidding (highly unlikely), 50-75% of PAC games will be streaming. I guarantee you that the PAC presidents and ADs aren’t going to go for that, and the AZ president said as much.

- finally, even by some miracle the deal was “as good” as the Big 12, will Oregon and Washington sign a fresh new GOR for 5 or 6 years? Nope.

Brett Yormark is patiently waiting. Leadership matters.
Even at 30 million, contrast that with 70. then over 7 years, likely north of a qtr billion. Our new facilities were around 160 million, plus coaching pay, larger/complete staffs.
You are mired into falling behind fast
 



Wonder how its going to play when these teams start going to municipalities/states for handouts?

Ha! I don’t think you’ll see tax entities paying for sports programs.

The Big 10, Big 12, and Pac 12 are the conferences that I keep up with. There’s a leadership void in both the Big 10 and Pac 10, but the Big 10 can get away with it; the Pac 12 cannot.

Brett Yormark’s strategy is to gain a few more schools in order to better leverage the media in the future. And if he can get more schools, he can pull that off. The Big 12 will never approach the Big 10 in media dollars - the eyeballs aren’t there. But that isn’t a new challenge - there has been a huge difference between the two conferences for many years.

But the Big 12 is in good hands right now. Brett Yormark is playing chess; George Kliavkoff is playing checkers. The smart Pac programs will pick up their stakes and move in order to better secure their long term futures.

That being said, at a certain point, there are diminishing returns on more and more money. You can only have so many nutritionists and analysts. It still comes down to talent, and there is talent a-plenty in Big 12 country to be competitive from now on, provided that adequate NIL funds are in place, and solid facilities.
 
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Ha! I don’t think you’ll see tax entities paying for sports programs.

The Big 10, Big 12, and Pac 12 are the conferences that I keep up with. There’s a leadership void in both the Big 10 and Pac 10, but the Big 10 can get away with it; the Pac 12 cannot.

Brett Yormark’s strategy is to gain a few more schools in order to better leverage the media in the future. And if he can get more schools, he can pull that off. The Big 12 will never approach the Big 10 in media dollars - the eyeballs aren’t there. But that isn’t a new challenge - there has been a huge difference between the two conferences for many years.

But the Big 12 is in good hands right now. Brett Yormark is playing chess; George Kliavkoff is playing checkers. The smart Pac programs will pick up their stakes and move in order to better secure their long term futures.

That being said, at a certain point, there are diminishing returns on more and more money. You can only have so many nutritionists and analysts. It still comes down to talent, and there is talent a-plenty in Big 12 country to be competitive from now on, provided that adequate NIL funds are in place, and solid facilities.
Things get old,wear out, new/better turfs/facilities/machines/more efficient etc.
They cost,monies. Short term, they'll hold their own, but recruits like these things, sometimes its simply superior must haves.

Over time,have and have nots
 

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