I get a kick out of people saying it's too early to tell, then saying it's a two-man race that Armstrong has already won. I will concede that apparently Bush and Armstrong are in the lead, but I bet the coaches haven't given up on the other two. And here's why: Not only can a lot happen the rest of of Spring, guys who are willing to put in the time, can show major improvement between the end of Spring practice and the beginning of Fall practice.
I believe so much of what's going on is mental. Everyone is learning a new offense, which evens the playing field quite a bit, though Armstrong's game experience, even in a different offense, does give him the edge. However, because it's mental, the other qbs can make up a lot of ground after Spring practice by learning the offense better and working on the flaws in their games, as pointed out to them by Langsdorf and Riley. Come the start of Fall practice the coaches will give huge points to those two areas. The player who learns the offense the best, and the player who shows the most improvement on his individual flaws. Given everything we've been able to read, that might indicate that Armstrong is in the lead, and is likely to give it up to Bush by the opening game.
Concerning the confidence issue, I've seen kids go both ways. They never get over it and disappear. Or some light goes on and years later you read the story about the summer something clicked or something someone's dad or grandmother or coach said that turned it around.