I agree OU looks like the key player in a lot of potential future movement (whether conference realignment or TV deals).
When you look at the per school money that TV revenue pays (https://forum.huskermax.com/threads...turning-to-the-old-big-12.124253/post-5004592), OU, Texas, & Clemson are the 3 in a position where they are currently getting underpaid, relative to what they'd be able to command in other situations.
However, Texas gets 15 million a year from their Longhorn Network, and while Clemson has been reputable for quite some time, it's only the last 10 years that they've been at the top, and are not a historic blueblood on the same level as the others - they seem to be happy being a bigger fish in a smaller pond, which is a partial key to their success, IMO.
OU is the big time school that checks pretty much all the boxes, their AD has been vocal on multiple occasions about TV/conference issues, and their TV partner is squeezing them while showing little interest in extending their deal. I'd pretty much bet the farm that OU is actively planning/discussing future moves that ensure either a better TV deal to remain, or finding a new home.
B1G & SEC would both almost assuredly accept them as an individual free agent... but what about if OU wants to bring along Texas, OK State, or has some other demands? SEC fits a little bit better geographically (already having A&M, Mizzou, & Ark), as well as having several other alphas that would probably be better suited to take on/control Texas, and by taking 2 schools like that, would be a 16 team superconference in prime position to pave their own NIL path, as well as negotiate a premium broadcast deal.
Zillions of moving pieces, but IMO a better than far-fetched chance that there's some movement along those lines in the next couple of years.
It would be outside of the geographical footprint, but I'm wondering if TCU and Baylor might be the most valuable of the Big 12 leftovers.
Those 2 leave and we’re down to the power 4. No way the Big12 can call itself a “Power” conference. Super conferences are imminent.Really hard to see the Big Twelve as a viable major conference without them, and I highly doubt there are any schools they could attract that would change that.
So there'll be 8 other teams furiously figuring out whether they can morph into a viable mid-tier or basketball conference, or else look for marginally-fitting homes in one of the other major conferences.