One and done for Football

[Middle-aged_Ball_Coach]

Gotta wonder how many NFL teams really want to draft a 19 or 20 year old kid. Given how many players jump into the transfer portal these days (not happy with coaches, homesick, whatever...) I'd think even the most desperate teams would want to see a sustained record of high level performance/dedication. Not to mention the one hit wonders who seem to have an unlimited ceiling early on but quickly level out for some reason.

I mostly agree, but you have to take a step back and ask yourself what you'd do if you were a GM in this situation: It's the last round, and I can either take the "safe" pick who is unlikely to move the needle, or I could draft that 19-year-old phenom out of Oklahoma named "Adrian Peterson" who just rushed for 1,925 yards as a true freshman. Do you think someone would have been willing to take a chance on Herschel Walker after his freshman year? Is it too much of a stretch to say that guys like Adrian Peterson, Marcus Dupree, and Earl Campbell might have been drafted straight out of high school? They were all incredibly highly recruited, and Dupree (apparently) was already getting paid.

It's one thing to argue that the rule change would hurt a lot of folks who go pro before they're ready, even if they are drafted, and that's a reasonable perspective. It's not the same, though, as saying that there wouldn't be any interest from the NFL side.

 

[anotherdumbprediction]

Said it before. I wish all NFL teams had an 18-22 year old team where they paid the kids $200k. I would be fine with an Andy Means type guy playing corner for DONU instead of the semi-pro league colleges are rolling out on Saturdays now.

 

[TrblShtr]

Coach, looking at the players you listed as examples (all running backs) makes me consider what positions are most and least likely to be represented in a potential one-n-done draft. Offensively, RB, WR and occassionally QB seem like they'd get some looks, while lineman wouldn't get a sniff. On defense I can't see anyone beyond an edge rusher, even corner backs with exception physical talent would get rolled up by pro receivers taking advantage of immature technique. Also, I do see how this might tend to favor late-round project-type players over early-round franchise hopefuls. Throwing a first round contract at a 19 year-old would take a huge leap of faith, having that weigh on the salary cap while waiting for the youngster's voice to change.

 

[coherbie]

I remember reading a Sports Illustrated article awhile back about how ~80% of retired NFL players go bankrupt within 3 years of their career ending. Often due to poor financial decisions, entourage/failed relationships siphoning off money & an overall failure to have a career plan for life after football.

Proposals like this one and done scenario make me believe that percentage could actually increase :O O: ...which is sad :Thumbsdown2:

 

[Middle-aged_Ball_Coach]

I remember reading a Sports Illustrated article awhile back about how ~80% of retired NFL players go bankrupt within 3 years of their career ending. Often due to poor financial decisions, entourage/failed relationships siphoning off money & an overall failure to have a career plan for life after football.

Proposals like this one and done scenario make me believe that percentage could actually increase :O O: ...which is sad :Thumbsdown2:

I don't remember the exact numbers because it's been a few years, but I used to have a graph that showed the percentages of people who ended up bankrupt, divorced, and/or committed suicide, and all of the things that American kids dream of doing are near the top of the list. First round draft picks in all sports (including soccer in Britain) have something like double the odds of ending up killing themselves versus a natural end to their life with wealth and still married to their first wife. It's the same for lottery winners, music stars, movie stars, et al. When you add in substance abuse, it gets much more bleak.

 

[Middle-aged_Ball_Coach]

Coach, looking at the players you listed as examples (all running backs) makes me consider what positions are most and least likely to be represented in a potential one-n-done draft. Offensively, RB, WR and occassionally QB seem like they'd get some looks, while lineman wouldn't get a sniff. On defense I can't see anyone beyond an edge rusher, even corner backs with exception physical talent would get rolled up by pro receivers taking advantage of immature technique. Also, I do see how this might tend to favor late-round project-type players over early-round franchise hopefuls. Throwing a first round contract at a 19 year-old would take a huge leap of faith, having that weigh on the salary cap while waiting for the youngster's voice to change.

Yeah, I think that that's all fair. There's a very rare exception that comes along, like an Orlando Pace, who could have gone pro earlier, but very, very few. It's the speed & skill positions where a guy could pan out, but they would very rarely merit a first round pick. If Derek Stingley from LSU had entered the draft, someone would have taken him, even though he's only a freshman CB. He has the speed, size, and skills, and he was already great at the college level.

 

[wcbsas]

I think Harabaugh's proposal is reasonable, fair and appropriate.

Stop the arbitrary 3 year rule ... if the athlete can play in the NFL at age 20 - let them.

Take Jonathan Taylor as an example ... requiring him for 3 years to stay in college is a disservice because he adds extra miles to his body that the NFL is unwilling to pay for ... to me ... release the constraints - if Zion Williamson or Jonathan Taylor or Trevor Lawrence want to go ... then go. Provide support and counseling and advisors to clearly guide these people in their decision making.

To me though ... I am lukewarm about the safety net allowing them to return. If you want to investigate the possibility then do so ... but if you ultimately declare for the draft and don't get drafted then that's the chance you take. College football and basketball will survive and truthfully I think will become better because you remove the kids who are only in it to get to the next level. You remove (maybe) some of the money demands from the college sport and move it to where it should be in the professionals.

 

[TrblShtr]

I'm learning some good stuff here. I don't follow many teams closely so I appreciate your insights into the potential of players who resemble those you've used as examples.

 

[BuccaneeredHusker]

Listening to Sports Nightly their view was that Harbaugh's main motivation was OSU losing some of their talent early, thus giving Harbaugh a better chance of beating them.

Might balance up talent levels a little across the top 20. Alabama and Ohio State might not be so full the 5stars falling
out of the cupboard.

 

[Brodeboy87]

I will put that speech up there with the 94' Orange Bowl speech from Dr. Tom...very cool