As
@cthusker said above, what in the past year makes you believe that the B1G prioritizes football?
You're leaving out Ga Tech, who is rumored to have been contacted by the B1G in conjunction with other ACC teams to join when Maryland and Rutgers came in. The B1G worships prestige and tradition, and they believe that the money will follow whenever the prestige and tradition are grown. Ga Tech offers world class academics and a football heritage that rivals all but the bluest blue-bloods, even if their glory days are a century ago. Having the team where Heisman coached means a lot, in the same way that adding Rutgers ("the birthplace of college football") probably meant more than most of us understood at the time.
With that said, Virginia, UNC, and Duke are also attractive for the same reasons, though their football heritage doesn't come close to Ga Tech's. It was rumored that Virginia and UNC were also approached by the B1G, but that both had complications due to in-state politicians who didn't want to see Va Tech left high and dry by VA or the NC schools left high and dry by UNC. I don't think that I ever heard anything about Duke, but it was discussed that Coach K would fight it with all his worth; he's also retiring next year.
Missouri would make a more natural fit in the B1G than in the SEC, and the B1G has approached them multiple times over the decades to gauge their interest in joining. I wouldn't rule them out, especially if some other pieces were moving, such as Texas and/or Oklahoma moving to the SEC and/or Kansas moving to the B1G. Missouri has the snobbish academic side that would much rather be associated with the B1G than the SEC, and it's not as though their sports programs are on the verge of prominence in the SEC. They're not set in stone.
Texas can go wherever it wants, and it has been in that position since the early 90s. Both the PAC and the B1G approached Texas as far back as the 90s about possibly joining. Texas seems to just want to be reminded from time to time that they're still attractive, but then they prefer being the biggest fish in a small pond rather than making any changes that would lessen their relative prestige. If they join another conference, I'd assume that it's because Oklahoma made the move first. If not, they'll be content to continue to add Texas schools to the rump of the Big 12 as needed to keep the zombie going. Without Oklahoma, I don't think it works.
I absolutely believe that the B1G would strongly consider Kansas over Oklahoma due to academic prestige. The Jayhawks basketball team doesn't hurt, and the contiguous B1G footprint really is "a thing." Iowa State over Notre Dame, on the other hand, is nonsense. Notre Dame will likely have a standing offer to join the B1G for the remainder of my lifetime.
See 2020.
Don't bet on the AAU aspect going away, but it's not crazy to consider that some Power 5 schools may re-evaluate what they want their sports programs to be relative to their academics. Wisconsin and Cal would be two programs that I believe would be most likely to make a University of Chicago/Ivy League sort of shift if anybody else were to do it. When public dollars have to be diverted from a university to fund their sports programs, and those universities are run by administrators who worship at the altar of elitist academic prestige,... yeah, it could happen.
If anybody wants to research this, this is a factor worth considering when looking at which direction schools will go in the future. Nebraska will make decisions around its football program both because of the state's culture and because it's a cash cow, but how many other public universities are in Wisconsin's boat of requiring tax payer funding to keep their sports programs afloat? It could also be a factor for private schools that don't have enough endowments built up that are earmarked towards athletics. Vanderbilt actually has a recruiting advantage in baseball as a private institution with endowments falling out of pockets. Ditto for Stanford. Others aren't so fortunate.
This is a great way to look at their individual decision-making processes. Texas would likely choose controlling their own TV network over some additional money, and it doesn't hurt that their endowments are in the stratosphere. Clemson would likely be willing to change if other pieces were moving, but otherwise they're not going to kill their golden goose. Oklahoma is the school that clearly has a lot to gain from making a change, but it has to be within certain parameters. If Texas were opposed to a change, but Oklahoma wanted to move, I'd assume that they'd join the SEC as that would allow them to be in the SEC West with Texas A&M, which keeps Texas recruiting in play.
I'm not convinced that the B1G would accept Oklahoma apart from being part of a group of teams coming in. First, the contiguous footprint matters. Second, the non-AAU membership matters. Third, the reputation of occasionally violating NCAA rules matters. If Kansas and/or Missouri were joining the B1G, I could easily see Oklahoma as a package deal. More likely, Oklahoma would be seen as the connection to adding Texas to keep the contiguity factor going. I think that OK fits more in the SEC in almost every way.
I agree with you except that I'd add that now it's not so much tied to "TV markets" as it is to "viewers" in general. The future of revenue in broadcasting college sports is going to be on digital platforms, and those aren't dependent upon traditional TV markets. How many people reading this have already both cut the cable and ditched the dish to watch Nebraska football through YouTube TV or similar? I have, and I'm not going back. Nobody else is either. TV will continue to be a money maker as a legacy media, but the future is in individual online subscriptions, which is why NBC is investing so heavily in "The Peacock Network." This trend will help those fan bases that are the most loyal, through thick and thin, versus those who have traditionally dominated large urban TV markets. In other words, the future of subscriptions makes Nebraska increasingly attractive, and it makes USC (for example) less so.
I agree with you, and I think that Kansas basketball likely adds a lot of national followers who would become subscribers to online conference platforms. It would be targeting a different but committed national demographic. UNC & Duke would do likewise.
I agree that if the B1G administrators continue to slit their own athletic throats, things will get shaken up in a hurry. Ohio State would be the university most likely to be the driving force for the shake-up, but Nebraska would likely be moving in the same direction as would Penn State. Everybody else would be less predictable.