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Oklahoma / B1G Deal?

RedSaidTed

Red Shirt
If football was the primary driver for the Big Ten expanding, they would have never added Rutgers and Maryland. It's much more about expanding their footprint into significant TV markets (in those cases, NYC and DC). Given that, Duke, UNC, and Georgia Tech would be quite attractive to the Big Ten.
Correct. It’s all about the TV money and the TV money is all about the TV markets. Nebraska for example brings value not because of the modest local market but because the Huskers have a loyal national following. Notre Dame is similar in that they have a huge national following but they also own the Chicago market. Any program added to the B1G would have to bring TV viewers or they wouldn’t be invited. Oklahoma would meet that criterium in that they bring the OK markets and the Dallas area as well as their national following. But Oklahoma isn’t going anywhere without OK State. The state politicians will never allow it. I think it’s more likely that Texas and Oklahoma flex the muscles and get what they want from their TV partners than they leave the B12, but anything is possible I guess.
 

Frosty1980

Scout Team
2 Year Member
I don’t think it will ever happen but damn it would be cool. Nebraska vs Oklahoma and Michigan vs Ohio St the day after thanksgiving. That would be awesome. Plus Nebraska hates Texas! In the same division they would develop a nice rivalry. However we would never go undefeated again.
 

nems

Wubba Lubba Dub Dub
15 Year Member
I have long thought that if the BIGXII still has a $$ hole, which makes them ripe for the picking. From the BIG10 perspective, I think UT and Kansas would be the likely duo to pick off. The West/East alignment would shake out nice, with a pack of Central Time zone teams from Madison to Austin.
 

Frosty1980

Scout Team
2 Year Member
I have long thought that if the BIGXII still has a $$ hole, which makes them ripe for the picking. From the BIG10 perspective, I think UT and Kansas would be the likely duo to pick off. The West/East alignment would shake out nice, with a pack of Central Time zone teams from Madison to Austin.
I think Kansas would be a great fit and piss Missouri off!
 

Middle-aged_Ball_Coach

Eternal Chairman of the Defense Commission
2 Year Member
On a human level, sure, I like the idea of prestigious colleges all belonging to some elite membership club. But with stuff like NIL, players' unions and collective bargaining coming down the pike, the Big Ten would be foolhardy to keep clutching their AAU pearls while the other conferences pass them by.

As @cthusker said above, what in the past year makes you believe that the B1G prioritizes football?

The ACC offers 2-3 targets of any interest: Virginia and UNC/Duke. UVA would preserve the contiguous footprint of the conference but the Cavaliers are a non-factor in football, really. The have some impressive basketball and lacrosse teams but this is always about football.

You're leaving out Ga Tech, who is rumored to have been contacted by the B1G in conjunction with other ACC teams to join when Maryland and Rutgers came in. The B1G worships prestige and tradition, and they believe that the money will follow whenever the prestige and tradition are grown. Ga Tech offers world class academics and a football heritage that rivals all but the bluest blue-bloods, even if their glory days are a century ago. Having the team where Heisman coached means a lot, in the same way that adding Rutgers ("the birthplace of college football") probably meant more than most of us understood at the time.

With that said, Virginia, UNC, and Duke are also attractive for the same reasons, though their football heritage doesn't come close to Ga Tech's. It was rumored that Virginia and UNC were also approached by the B1G, but that both had complications due to in-state politicians who didn't want to see Va Tech left high and dry by VA or the NC schools left high and dry by UNC. I don't think that I ever heard anything about Duke, but it was discussed that Coach K would fight it with all his worth; he's also retiring next year.

Mizzou might be tempted but it would have to be some two-step tango where we also pull in Kansas and get the Husker-Jayhawk-Tiger triangle happening again.

Missouri would make a more natural fit in the B1G than in the SEC, and the B1G has approached them multiple times over the decades to gauge their interest in joining. I wouldn't rule them out, especially if some other pieces were moving, such as Texas and/or Oklahoma moving to the SEC and/or Kansas moving to the B1G. Missouri has the snobbish academic side that would much rather be associated with the B1G than the SEC, and it's not as though their sports programs are on the verge of prominence in the SEC. They're not set in stone.

Texas could. The Longhorns are literally the only remaining AAU member in the country that makes a tiny bit of sense geographically (not really) and are nationally relevant, and offer fertile recruiting ground.

Texas can go wherever it wants, and it has been in that position since the early 90s. Both the PAC and the B1G approached Texas as far back as the 90s about possibly joining. Texas seems to just want to be reminded from time to time that they're still attractive, but then they prefer being the biggest fish in a small pond rather than making any changes that would lessen their relative prestige. If they join another conference, I'd assume that it's because Oklahoma made the move first. If not, they'll be content to continue to add Texas schools to the rump of the Big 12 as needed to keep the zombie going. Without Oklahoma, I don't think it works.

So, basically Texas. Texas is the lone AAU member who could work in the Big Ten. And after all that, I'm supposed to believe that the Big Ten would patently reject Oklahoma (or Notre Dame, for that matter) if they wanted to join the conference? "Sure, we'll take Kansas over Oklahoma. We'll take Iowa State over Notre Dame..."

I absolutely believe that the B1G would strongly consider Kansas over Oklahoma due to academic prestige. The Jayhawks basketball team doesn't hurt, and the contiguous B1G footprint really is "a thing." Iowa State over Notre Dame, on the other hand, is nonsense. Notre Dame will likely have a standing offer to join the B1G for the remainder of my lifetime.

It makes no sense.

See 2020.

Once conference realignment spins up again, AAU Membership as a prerequisite for Big Ten membership is about to go flying out the window. Or if Kevin Warren sticks to his academic guns, don't be surprised when NU, along with Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Iowa and Wisconsin bail out for better football climates in a new conference or league.

Don't bet on the AAU aspect going away, but it's not crazy to consider that some Power 5 schools may re-evaluate what they want their sports programs to be relative to their academics. Wisconsin and Cal would be two programs that I believe would be most likely to make a University of Chicago/Ivy League sort of shift if anybody else were to do it. When public dollars have to be diverted from a university to fund their sports programs, and those universities are run by administrators who worship at the altar of elitist academic prestige,... yeah, it could happen.

It can get pretty circular, too. Nebraska actually makes so much money off athletics that they sponsor "non-athletic scholarships" for kids who are not athletes (just general UNL students) using athletic money.

If anybody wants to research this, this is a factor worth considering when looking at which direction schools will go in the future. Nebraska will make decisions around its football program both because of the state's culture and because it's a cash cow, but how many other public universities are in Wisconsin's boat of requiring tax payer funding to keep their sports programs afloat? It could also be a factor for private schools that don't have enough endowments built up that are earmarked towards athletics. Vanderbilt actually has a recruiting advantage in baseball as a private institution with endowments falling out of pockets. Ditto for Stanford. Others aren't so fortunate.

OU, Texas, & Clemson are the 3 in a position where they are currently getting underpaid, relative to what they'd be able to command in other situations.

This is a great way to look at their individual decision-making processes. Texas would likely choose controlling their own TV network over some additional money, and it doesn't hurt that their endowments are in the stratosphere. Clemson would likely be willing to change if other pieces were moving, but otherwise they're not going to kill their golden goose. Oklahoma is the school that clearly has a lot to gain from making a change, but it has to be within certain parameters. If Texas were opposed to a change, but Oklahoma wanted to move, I'd assume that they'd join the SEC as that would allow them to be in the SEC West with Texas A&M, which keeps Texas recruiting in play.

B1G & SEC would both almost assuredly accept them as an individual free agent... but what about if OU wants to bring along Texas, OK State, or has some other demands? SEC fits a little bit better geographically (already having A&M, Mizzou, & Ark), as well as having several other alphas that would probably be better suited to take on/control Texas, and by taking 2 schools like that, would be a 16 team superconference in prime position to pave their own NIL path, as well as negotiate a premium broadcast deal.

I'm not convinced that the B1G would accept Oklahoma apart from being part of a group of teams coming in. First, the contiguous footprint matters. Second, the non-AAU membership matters. Third, the reputation of occasionally violating NCAA rules matters. If Kansas and/or Missouri were joining the B1G, I could easily see Oklahoma as a package deal. More likely, Oklahoma would be seen as the connection to adding Texas to keep the contiguity factor going. I think that OK fits more in the SEC in almost every way.

If football was the primary driver for the Big Ten expanding, they would have never added Rutgers and Maryland. It's much more about expanding their footprint into significant TV markets (in those cases, NYC and DC). Given that, Duke, UNC, and Georgia Tech would be quite attractive to the Big Ten.

I agree with you except that I'd add that now it's not so much tied to "TV markets" as it is to "viewers" in general. The future of revenue in broadcasting college sports is going to be on digital platforms, and those aren't dependent upon traditional TV markets. How many people reading this have already both cut the cable and ditched the dish to watch Nebraska football through YouTube TV or similar? I have, and I'm not going back. Nobody else is either. TV will continue to be a money maker as a legacy media, but the future is in individual online subscriptions, which is why NBC is investing so heavily in "The Peacock Network." This trend will help those fan bases that are the most loyal, through thick and thin, versus those who have traditionally dominated large urban TV markets. In other words, the future of subscriptions makes Nebraska increasingly attractive, and it makes USC (for example) less so.

If talking BIG expansion, the school I'm intrigued in is Kansas. Kansas brings nothing to the football side, but brings a top 5 basketball brand. Basketball isn't the driver football is, but their addition would add valuable "inventory" and could draw eyeballs to the BTN during the football offseason. Plus, Kansas City would be the 10th largest media market in the direct BIG footprint (if you count NYC, DC, and Philly in the footprint).

I agree with you, and I think that Kansas basketball likely adds a lot of national followers who would become subscribers to online conference platforms. It would be targeting a different but committed national demographic. UNC & Duke would do likewise.

And if they can't see what's coming, Nebraska - and their powerful football brand - will leave.

I suspect OSU, UM, PSU and others would follow suit. Any of the B1G snobs who want to poo-poo the new football reality can become the next University of Chicago.

I agree that if the B1G administrators continue to slit their own athletic throats, things will get shaken up in a hurry. Ohio State would be the university most likely to be the driving force for the shake-up, but Nebraska would likely be moving in the same direction as would Penn State. Everybody else would be less predictable.
 
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MiniDisk

Run game... Whats that?
for those that think Oklahoma would not move without OKST, dont bet on that. the dynamics of a larger conference don't really play well with the fan base. does anyone really care that we dont play everyone in the eastern division every year? nope.. conferences need to ensure that their teams in both divisions have ties to each other so routinely playing each other is important. as confrences sit now we go what 2 years per rotation? imagine adding another 4 teams (2ea per division). now that goes to 4 years, kids graduate in 4 years typically and nowadays you see kids doing it in 3, imagine being in a conference and never playing one of the major teams like michigan or ohio st.

what i do see is single team additions with special rivalry guarantees. we saw this in the re-work of the 2020 conference schedule and i can easily seeing OU say, "Kev, we want to join the B1G, but we have 2 things we need. We need to maintain our Red River rivalry early in the season, and we need to ensure our late season bedlam matchup stays intact." i think the B1G accommodates them since Kev wants to have early conference games anyhow. move a late season conf game to week 1 frees up bedlam rivalry. on the red river rivalry, B1G will want this game to stay and will make adjustments to suit. national tv audience.

And yes. lets not forget if OK would join the B1G they would be in the west division. and you all know what that means. OK vs NEB Black Friday! Sorry Iowa, but your second fiddle just like OK vs OKST.


based on game exposure look at what an OU addition would look like.

ok vs neb - national - yearly
ok vs iowa - regional - yearly
ok vs wis - regional - yearly
ok vs mich - national - rotation
ok vs osu - national - rotation
ok vs psu - national - rotation

ok vs Texas - national - yearly
ok vs okst - regional - yearly

don't forget that CBS loses SEC at the end of 2023, so there could be a no re-alignments. you could see Big 12 finally get its act together on revenue sharing and jump to CBS where they really only showed the 2:30 games. CBS also loves basketball and Big 12 would be a good fit. Of course this would be contingent on CBS sports Execs not being cheap. i mean really you let the SEC first game pick go?

who knows what will happen in the future, i just dont see super duper conferences. B1G got punished for that in baseball with playing a conf only schedule. they rarely got any teams getting ranked this year in baseball and not having any outside influence to determine their pecking order certainly will be a consideration.


i think ive rambled enough...
 
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MiniDisk

Run game... Whats that?
How many people reading this have already both cut the cable and ditched the dish to watch Nebraska football through YouTube TV or similar? I have, and I'm not going back. Nobody else is either.
i dropped cable after the football season but i will get it back up so i can use my cable cards to record the games and save them forever. i got every husker football game since 2009 on a Harddrive. :)
 

Huskerfan69

Scout Team
As @cthusker said above, what in the past year makes you believe that the B1G prioritizes football?



You're leaving out Ga Tech, who is rumored to have been contacted by the B1G in conjunction with other ACC teams to join when Maryland and Rutgers came in. The B1G worships prestige and tradition, and they believe that the money will follow whenever the prestige and tradition are grown. Ga Tech offers world class academics and a football heritage that rivals all but the bluest blue-bloods, even if their glory days are a century ago. Having the team where Heisman coached means a lot, in the same way that adding Rutgers ("the birthplace of college football") probably meant more than most of us understood at the time.

With that said, Virginia, UNC, and Duke are also attractive for the same reasons, though their football heritage doesn't come close to Ga Tech's. It was rumored that Virginia and UNC were also approached by the B1G, but that both had complications due to in-state politicians who didn't want to see Va Tech left high and dry by VA or the NC schools left high and dry by UNC. I don't think that I ever heard anything about Duke, but it was discussed that Coach K would fight it with all his worth; he's also retiring next year.



Missouri would make a more natural fit in the B1G than in the SEC, and the B1G has approached them multiple times over the decades to gauge their interest in joining. I wouldn't rule them out, especially if some other pieces were moving, such as Texas and/or Oklahoma moving to the SEC and/or Kansas moving to the B1G. Missouri has the snobbish academic side that would much rather be associated with the B1G than the SEC, and it's not as though their sports programs are on the verge of prominence in the SEC. They're not set in stone.



Texas can go wherever it wants, and it has been in that position since the early 90s. Both the PAC and the B1G approached Texas as far back as the 90s about possibly joining. Texas seems to just want to be reminded from time to time that they're still attractive, but then they prefer being the biggest fish in a small pond rather than making any changes that would lessen their relative prestige. If they join another conference, I'd assume that it's because Oklahoma made the move first. If not, they'll be content to continue to add Texas schools to the rump of the Big 12 as needed to keep the zombie going. Without Oklahoma, I don't think it works.



I absolutely believe that the B1G would strongly consider Kansas over Oklahoma due to academic prestige. The Jayhawks basketball team doesn't hurt, and the contiguous B1G footprint really is "a thing." Iowa State over Notre Dame, on the other hand, is nonsense. Notre Dame will likely have a standing offer to join the B1G for the remainder of my lifetime.



See 2020.



Don't bet on the AAU aspect going away, but it's not crazy to consider that some Power 5 schools may re-evaluate what they want their sports programs to be relative to their academics. Wisconsin and Cal would be two programs that I believe would be most likely to make a University of Chicago/Ivy League sort of shift if anybody else were to do it. When public dollars have to be diverted from a university to fund their sports programs, and those universities are run by administrators who worship at the altar of elitist academic prestige,... yeah, it could happen.



If anybody wants to research this, this is a factor worth considering when looking at which direction schools will go in the future. Nebraska will make decisions around its football program both because of the state's culture and because it's a cash cow, but how many other public universities are in Wisconsin's boat of requiring tax payer funding to keep their sports programs afloat? It could also be a factor for private schools that don't have enough endowments built up that are earmarked towards athletics. Vanderbilt actually has a recruiting advantage in baseball as a private institution with endowments falling out of pockets. Ditto for Stanford. Others aren't so fortunate.



This is a great way to look at their individual decision-making processes. Texas would likely choose controlling their own TV network over some additional money, and it doesn't hurt that their endowments are in the stratosphere. Clemson would likely be willing to change if other pieces were moving, but otherwise they're not going to kill their golden goose. Oklahoma is the school that clearly has a lot to gain from making a change, but it has to be within certain parameters. If Texas were opposed to a change, but Oklahoma wanted to move, I'd assume that they'd join the SEC as that would allow them to be in the SEC West with Texas A&M, which keeps Texas recruiting in play.



I'm not convinced that the B1G would accept Oklahoma apart from being part of a group of teams coming in. First, the contiguous footprint matters. Second, the non-AAU membership matters. Third, the reputation of occasionally violating NCAA rules matters. If Kansas and/or Missouri were joining the B1G, I could easily see Oklahoma as a package deal. More likely, Oklahoma would be seen as the connection to adding Texas to keep the contiguity factor going. I think that OK fits more in the SEC in almost every way.



I agree with you except that I'd add that now it's not so much tied to "TV markets" as it is to "viewers" in general. The future of revenue in broadcasting college sports is going to be on digital platforms, and those aren't dependent upon traditional TV markets. How many people reading this have already both cut the cable and ditched the dish to watch Nebraska football through YouTube TV or similar? I have, and I'm not going back. Nobody else is either. TV will continue to be a money maker as a legacy media, but the future is in individual online subscriptions, which is why NBC is investing so heavily in "The Peacock Network." This trend will help those fan bases that are the most loyal, through thick and thin, versus those who have traditionally dominated large urban TV markets. In other words, the future of subscriptions makes Nebraska increasingly attractive, and it makes USC (for example) less so.



I agree with you, and I think that Kansas basketball likely adds a lot of national followers who would become subscribers to online conference platforms. It would be targeting a different but committed national demographic. UNC & Duke would do likewise.



I agree that if the B1G administrators continue to slit their own athletic throats, things will get shaken up in a hurry. Ohio State would be the university most likely to be the driving force for the shake-up, but Nebraska would likely be moving in the same direction as would Penn State. Everybody else would be less predictable.

damn, that is some serious quote usage
 

Cisco

Recruit
5 Year Member
Past behavior is a pretty good predictor of future behavior. Oklahoma chose to align with Texas and the Texas schools in the past. Texas has flirted twice, once very closely, with the Pac 12. I think it's more likely they look westward if they ever seriously contemplate a conference switch.
 

Middle-aged_Ball_Coach

Eternal Chairman of the Defense Commission
2 Year Member
Past behavior is a pretty good predictor of future behavior. Oklahoma chose to align with Texas and the Texas schools in the past. Texas has flirted twice, once very closely, with the Pac 12. I think it's more likely they look westward if they ever seriously contemplate a conference switch.

I agree that Texas would most likely look westward, but I don't agree that Oklahoma would follow. I think that the most likely scenario is that Texas carves out some sort of special arrangement with the PAC so that they never or rarely have to play Utah yet walk around with a BSD as though they're USC ... except "Texas." Oklahoma most naturally fits in the SEC. Everything about Oklahoma fits in the SEC: academics aren't that important; cheating is sometimes okay; football is everything as long as you're winning. The PAC is actually a lot more like the B1G than any other conference, and Oklahoma has very little to offer them as far as academics. Texas, on the other hand, would get wined and dined like the high dollar whore that they are.
 

johnrr6

Lucky!
5 Year Member
Dunno…I could see Texas and OU jumping elsewhere… probably not SEC..too scary and brutal for them…they would want to feel they could dominate quickly.

if the money was just soooo much better….

Big 12 ain’t really helping them and the “Longhorn network” has lost a ton of luster…

Big 10 or PAC 12 seems the logical choice given the unlikelyhood.

they would have to retool entirely for the BiG…no way that brand of ball would hold up in the BiG IMHO.

But what do I know….
 
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Cisco

Recruit
5 Year Member
I agree that Texas would most likely look westward, but I don't agree that Oklahoma would follow. I think that the most likely scenario is that Texas carves out some sort of special arrangement with the PAC so that they never or rarely have to play Utah yet walk around with a BSD as though they're USC ... except "Texas." Oklahoma most naturally fits in the SEC. Everything about Oklahoma fits in the SEC: academics aren't that important; cheating is sometimes okay; football is everything as long as you're winning. The PAC is actually a lot more like the B1G than any other conference, and Oklahoma has very little to offer them as far as academics. Texas, on the other hand, would get wined and dined like the high dollar whore that they are.

They wanted Oklahoma the last time around. OU will stay with Texas, if not for the rivalry, at least for continued exposure in the state of Texas to the degree they have now. It's their lifeblood.

Oklahoma to the Big Ten is unlikely. SEC would be more likely but the Pac 12 would definitely take OU with Texas.
 
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