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Numbers Nightmare

Husker In Oklahoma said:
Like I said, it stretches back to Pelini, and Riley. In general, yes, it can’t be tolerated. I’m guessing Adrian won’t have that luxury at Kansas State this year with Kleiman. Frosts record at worst is flipped to 29-15 without all the nonsense.
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You evidently didn't read the post if you are referencing Adrian and his luxury at Kansas State. It was pretty clear that AM was clearly out performing relative to the supporting cast. The real question is why there wasn't a shorter leash on the other problems. We will see if the new staff can do anything to change that as SF and previous staff had zero luck.
 

HuskerWeatherman said:
Nebraska may very well turn things around this year -- but as I've argued previously, what happened last year will have little to do with it. So many new faces in '22 -- coaches and players combined, it might be as much turnover as I can remember.

Nebraska is ranked 13th in the Big Ten in returning production (94th nationally).

247sports.com

Big Ten football: Teams ranked by returning production for 2022 season

...
247sports.com 247sports.com
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Well I remember the days when Oklahoma St was not very good. My brother is an OSU alumn. He used to say the good news is we have most of our guys coming back, the bad news is we have most of our guys coming back.

Fresh start may be the best answer.
 
Ringo said:
Well I remember the days when Oklahoma St was not very good. My brother is an OSU alumn. He used to say the good news is we have most of our guys coming back, the bad news is we have most of our guys coming back.

Fresh start may be the best answer.
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I think no experience is better than bad experience. You can spend time teaching instead of correcting.
 



HuskerWeatherman said:
Definitely an outlier.

I did enjoy the article, as I appreciate a thorough analysis. Thanks for sharing it.

As @Redleg mentioned, turnovers and penalties are not included in the metric used to measure Nebraska's "luck."

I don't know what I did with the link I found this in (don't think it's in the article you linked) ... but I read that in Nebraska's single score losses since 2018 (Frost era), we are -20 on turnover margin.

If a team is talented enough to make games close but still find a way to lose, it's likely due to mistakes (turnovers, penalties, play calling, clock management, etc.). Also, it doesn't appear the metric takes into account special teams (correct me if I'm wrong). Obviously, special teams hurt us frequently. Heck, it cost us a win over Michigan State.

If Nebraska hopes to turn more losses into wins, it's going to be due to limiting the number of times we shoot ourselves in the foot. A more disciplined team will win more games.

This is from the current Athlon college football preview (paper version):


View attachment 84733
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Agreed. Turnovers, penalties and special teams are key reasons why last year was such an outlier.
 
Hville said:
You evidently didn't read the post if you are referencing Adrian and his luxury at Kansas State. It was pretty clear that AM was clearly out performing relative to the supporting cast. The real question is why there wasn't a shorter leash on the other problems. We will see if the new staff can do anything to change that as SF and previous staff had zero luck.
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How exactly is that pretty clear? For 4 years, AM did some really great things, and some really terrible things.
 
goodnterribles said:
How exactly is that pretty clear? For 4 years, AM did some really great things, and some really terrible things.
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That was the thing with AM. He is a very talented guy that made a ton of good and great plays. Especially with his feet. The problem was the timing of the mistakes and the bad plays. He missed some open receivers at crucial times in the OU loss. The fumble against Michigan at crunch time that just can't happen, etc. etc.
I will take less running production from the QB spot this year if we can increase passing efficiency and finish more drives in the end zone.

How many times did we see a team that moved the ball pretty well but didn't finish often enough over the past 4 years? Obviously that was not all on 2AM, but he was part of it. That's why I like the fact that our new QB had 24 TD passes last season. I think Mickey will upgrade the play of the WR's. Guys have to get open. Guys have to block. QB's have to make plays when you need them the most. An established running game can help him. Finish drives. Win.
 
Ringo said:
That was the thing with AM. He is a very talented guy that made a ton of good and great plays. Especially with his feet. The problem was the timing of the mistakes and the bad plays. He missed some open receivers at crucial times in the OU loss. The fumble against Michigan at crunch time that just can't happen, etc. etc.
I will take less running production from the QB spot this year if we can increase passing efficiency and finish more drives in the end zone.

How many times did we see a team that moved the ball pretty well but didn't finish often enough over the past 4 years? Obviously that was not all on 2AM, but he was part of it. That's why I like the fact that our new QB had 24 TD passes last season. I think Mickey will upgrade the play of the WR's. Guys have to get open. Guys have to block. QB's have to make plays when you need them the most. An established running game can help him. Finish drives. Win.
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His immense talent kept us in games against teams like OU, OSU, Michigan, etc, although in every case he failed to execute down the stretch (he wasn't the only one). However, it's his performances against Illinois, Minnesota, Purdue, Wisconsin, year after year that are the headscratchers. He's far from the only person who deserves blame for the losses, it was on every player and coach. But some still find him to be blameless, and that he is going to magically show up in Manhattan, KS and be a different qb. I honestly hope he kills it next year, I just don't think it will happen unless Kleimann has him handing the ball off most of the time.
 




goodnterribles said:
How exactly is that pretty clear? For 4 years, AM did some really great things, and some really terrible things.
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AM2 48 games ..... "12 for good, 36 for bad"

Shutterstock_5885343an.jpg
 
goodnterribles said:
His immense talent kept us in games against teams like OU, OSU, Michigan, etc, although in every case he failed to execute down the stretch (he wasn't the only one). However, it's his performances against Illinois, Minnesota, Purdue, Wisconsin, year after year that are the headscratchers. He's far from the only person who deserves blame for the losses, it was on every player and coach. But some still find him to be blameless, and that he is going to magically show up in Manhattan, KS and be a different qb. I honestly hope he kills it next year, I just don't think it will happen unless Kleimann has him handing the ball off most of the time.
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I'm a bit ambivalent regarding AM. I hope he does well but I'm glad he didn't come back. I've a gut feeling he'll go out with a wimper. Who knows, maybe they can figure out how to take advantage of his strengths and avoid his weaknesses, something they never could seem figure out here.
 



goodnterribles said:
Of course it is
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However, when you look at his 2021 season stats, he was actually pretty good. He saw career highs in Expected Points Added per Play, CPOE, PFF grade and the QB Composite score. He certainly didn’t play like a QB on a 3 win team. We can go even further by breaking down one of these metrics that can actually serve as a QB post game win probability metric: ESPN’s QBR.
 
Hville said:
However, when you look at his 2021 season stats, he was actually pretty good. He saw career highs in Expected Points Added per Play, CPOE, PFF grade and the QB Composite score. He certainly didn’t play like a QB on a 3 win team. We can go even further by breaking down one of these metrics that can actually serve as a QB post game win probability metric: ESPN’s QBR.
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And yet, when the team needed him to make a play to win, it never happened. And that is the crux of the issue. At some point, great quarterbacks make plays when the game is on the line.
 

goodnterribles said:
And yet, when the team needed him to make a play to win, it never happened. And that is the crux of the issue. At some point, great quarterbacks make plays when the game is on the line.
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Maybe the team didn’t take advantage of all the plays he did make. Pretty much all the facts point to him making most all of the offensive plays.
 
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