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Non-Conference Schedules

Cornhuskers7 said:
My point is even if you beat them and beat them easily, I don't think there are a lot of people looking at those as "quality wins". If we don't get credit much more credit for beating them than beating a cupcake, why take on the risk. I'd rather play really tough teams, if we are going to take on the risk. Schools like the Academys and Memphis can be frisky every now and then, but they don't the respect on name recognition because there is volatility there. By the time people recognize them as actually being good that season, they've already written us off for being bad for losing to them.
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Understood but computer formulas as well as rankings such as Sagarin/Massey/Colleys do use strength of schedule systems that to a degree ignore the name on the front of the jersey.

Beating a 9-3 Navy will carry weight as opposed to a 9-3 North Dakota.

I understand what a loss means but SOS is proving to be a factor in deciding upon CFP participants and with a larger field in play the margins become smaller.
 
wcbsas said:
Understood but computer formulas as well as rankings such as Sagarin/Massey/Colleys do use strength of schedule systems that to a degree ignore the name on the front of the jersey.

Beating a 9-3 Navy will carry weight as opposed to a 9-3 North Dakota.

I understand what a loss means but SOS is proving to be a factor in deciding upon CFP participants and with a larger field in play the margins become smaller.
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To a certain extent, this is like us arguing what steakhouse is best when we only have enough money to go eat fast food. We haven't gone into the postseason ranked in the top 12 since 2001 (closest we got was 2010 when we were 17th).

However, if we do move back toward being a playoff caliber team or if the playoff expands to 24 teams (which we still have a ways to reach), I don't expect SOS to be a massive factor for us in the first place. SOS within the B1G/SEC is orders of magnitude stronger than ACC/Big XII/Notre Dame. Last season of the top 26 teams in SOS, only two came from outside the B1G/SEC. The other two were Syracuse (19th) and Miami (7th). Nebraska ranked second to last in the B1G, but was still 42nd nationally. Our in-conference schedule was significantly more hospitable than most years. Even still there were only 9 teams that ranked ahead of us outside the B1G/SEC.

The first factor of reaching the playoff is wins. If you don't have those, it doesn't matter what style points you have or your strength of schedule. Wisconsin had the toughest SOS in the nation last year and did anyone give them credit for that? Nope, because they didn't win. Most years, 10 wins is going to be the bar for a team like Nebraska. In years with more parity, maybe you can squeak in with 9 wins and a super tough schedule. For Nebraska, this means you need to pretty much win all your non-conference games or you are going to end up having to upset one or more of the top dogs in the B1G, all while not slipping up to the "easier" teams in conference play.

In 2021, we had the 10th toughest SOS and while we played OU our other two non-cons were Fordham and Buffalo. In 2024, we had the 15th toughest SOS and played CU and then Northern Iowa and UTEP. A lot of our SOS is dependent on in conference schedule draw. Most years, if we finish with a record good enough to be in the conversation for the CFP, we will have had to have picked up some quality wins in conference. Right now, there is a much higher probability of tougher non-con games hurting us than helping us.

If non-conference strength starts becoming more of a driving factor for us, I'd still argue we should just play another power conference team, rather than scheduling a top-tier G5 team. Yes, a 9-3 Navy team gives you a better rating than a 9-3 North Dakota, but a 7-5 Virginia Tech team might give you a better bump than either of those other two. Again, it's balancing risk/reward.
 
TFrazier said:
However, it can be incredibly difficult to stop their run based offenses. Just look at all of the teams that have lost or struggled against teams like Army. Unfortunately, very high risk and little reward by playing/beating them.
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Air Force?
 
HuskerBrotha said:
Agreed! Last year, I saw this graphic that had the Top 25 winningest programs (I think NU was 8th), and the only team in the Top 25 that NU has never played was Navy. I found that hard to believe, but they have never played each other (I was also surprised to see that Navy was in the Top 25 for most wins). I know that Notre Dame plays at least one of the Military Academies each year but I'd love to watch NU take on Army, Navy, Air Force, VMI, the Citadel, etc.
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I would have guessed Army over Navy. Good thing I'm not a bettin' man.
 
TFrazier said:
However, it can be incredibly difficult to stop their run based offenses. Just look at all of the teams that have lost or struggled against teams like Army. Unfortunately, very high risk and little reward by playing/beating them.
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Army took a good OU team to OT in 2018 in Norman. OU was extremely lucky to win that game. TOP was lopsided. Army held the ball.
 
Cornhuskers7 said:
If non-conference strength starts becoming more of a driving factor for us, I'd still argue we should just play another power conference team, rather than scheduling a top-tier G5 team. Yes, a 9-3 Navy team gives you a better rating than a 9-3 North Dakota, but a 7-5 Virginia Tech team might give you a better bump than either of those other two. Again, it's balancing risk/reward.
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Yes a 7-5 VTech win is better than a 9-3 Navy win. But my case/argument is that Navy/Air Force/Army or teams like that … will be the second of our 3 non-conference games.

Yes wins are important and we are not there yet but we are talking about a schedule that gets this team to the playoffs. Last year NU had the 37th best strength of schedule. The SOS depends on large part our conference schedule. Sometimes you play tOSU and Oregon and sometimes you do not. A decent non-conference schedule assures that even in weak years your SOS will be good enough.
 
wcbsas said:
Yes a 7-5 VTech win is better than a 9-3 Navy win. But my case/argument is that Navy/Air Force/Army or teams like that … will be the second of our 3 non-conference games.

Yes wins are important and we are not there yet but we are talking about a schedule that gets this team to the playoffs. Last year NU had the 37th best strength of schedule. The SOS depends on large part our conference schedule. Sometimes you play tOSU and Oregon and sometimes you do not. A decent non-conference schedule assures that even in weak years your SOS will be good enough.
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My point is that the current parity of the B1G makes it where even in a bad season, your SOS is going to have you competitive with most. Last year was a weaker conference schedule for us, and as I noted we were well ahead in SOS of teams outside our conference or the SEC.

I think if you are going to schedule one of those type of teams you're talking about as a second non-con, you only do that if the first non-con you schedule isn't great, too. Personally, I think we have more to gain by playing one really great team in non-con (SEC team or a top tier ACC/Big XII) than scheduling a team like Cincinnati and an Academy.

Looking back at risk-reward, I'd prefer we play a team that gives us a large reward if we beat them. If Nebraska pulls off an upset of a team like Ole Miss or Miami, that's something that earns you bonus points with the committee. Beyond the SOS metric itself, beating one of the Academys or a really good Memphis/Coastal Carolina type isn't going to move the needle a lot. I also think the penalty of losing to one of those top tier teams is less than if we lose to a really good G5 team. Yes, you are more likely to lose to the G5 team, but I don't think the pros outweigh the cons. Doesn't mean we need to be playing a bunch of FCS teams, but I don't think we need to make our climb any more difficult than it already is. I think this is especially true with playoff expansion. If Nebraska can just get to 10 wins, they're going to have a great shot of making the playoff.
 
Cornhuskers7 said:
My point is that the current parity of the B1G makes it where even in a bad season, your SOS is going to have you competitive with most. Last year was a weaker conference schedule for us, and as I noted we were well ahead in SOS of teams outside our conference or the SEC.

I think if you are going to schedule one of those type of teams you're talking about as a second non-con, you only do that if the first non-con you schedule isn't great, too. Personally, I think we have more to gain by playing one really great team in non-con (SEC team or a top tier ACC/Big XII) than scheduling a team like Cincinnati and an Academy.

Looking back at risk-reward, I'd prefer we play a team that gives us a large reward if we beat them. If Nebraska pulls off an upset of a team like Ole Miss or Miami, that's something that earns you bonus points with the committee. Beyond the SOS metric itself, beating one of the Academys or a really good Memphis/Coastal Carolina type isn't going to move the needle a lot. I also think the penalty of losing to one of those top tier teams is less than if we lose to a really good G5 team. Yes, you are more likely to lose to the G5 team, but I don't think the pros outweigh the cons. Doesn't mean we need to be playing a bunch of FCS teams, but I don't think we need to make our climb any more difficult than it already is. I think this is especially true with playoff expansion. If Nebraska can just get to 10 wins, they're going to have a great shot of making the playoff.
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I hear you.

We are also speaking about a fanciful future where NU might be capable of beating a Miami Fl or Ole Miss or Tennessee. We still gotta get better.

Much of my argument is rooted in the belief that an expanded CFP will require good SOS to differentiate between other similar teams. Once you get above/beyond 12 teams you’re going to have a plethora of 9-3 and 8-4 teams vying against each other. Being in the B1G will help but we will also be going up against other B1G teams and a bunch of SEC teams.
 
wcbsas said:
I hear you.

We are also speaking about a fanciful future where NU might be capable of beating a Miami Fl or Ole Miss or Tennessee. We still gotta get better.

Much of my argument is rooted in the belief that an expanded CFP will require good SOS to differentiate between other similar teams. Once you get above/beyond 12 teams you’re going to have a plethora of 9-3 and 8-4 teams vying against each other. Being in the B1G will help but we will also be going up against other B1G teams and a bunch of SEC teams.
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I think a lot of it is dependent on what other teams/conferences end up doing. Until we see other programs start going out of their way to schedule tougher, I don't expect us to. We are just now hitting the point where the SEC is playing a ninth conference game to catch up to us. With how many toss up and difficult games we have in conference play, I like having at least two non-con wins to lean on. As mentioned in early posts, I think it's also good from a depth building standpoint to have a few of those easier games, too.
 
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