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Nebraska at Illinois Gameday Weather Forecast -- Final Update Saturday at 4:30PM, Page 2, Post #20
- Thread starter HuskerWeatherman
- Start date
January.
I really don’t like you right now.
Thanks again, @HuskerWeatherman
Another update ....
It's really a mixed message, unfortunately.
At 10AM, it's 76 degrees and humid in Champaign. Partly cloudy skies. South wind at 10 MPH. There's an area of light to moderate rain showers not far to the west, over Central Illinois this morning. While a few rain drop could sneak into Champaign over the next couple of hours, most or all of that precipitation should fade. Temperature this afternoon will likely top out over 80.
Here's the concern: There's a good chances a line of showers and thunderstorms (some heavy/strong) will develop over Western Illinois the middle of this afternoon -- then track eastward. About half the computer models diminish or completely dissipate the precipitation before it reaches Champaign, as it runs into an area that is still under the influence of high pressure. The other half of the models hold the precipitation together as it moves into Champaign -- somewhere around the time of kickoff (plus or minus an hour). Yes, good chance any rain that does reach Champaign (if it does) will include thunderstorms (lightning).
A weather model I rely on quite a bit for Texas forecasting is not at all kind for the game this evening. It suggests multiple hours of showers and thunderstorms.
If I take everything into account, it's truly a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms in Champaign, between 6PM and midnight. But if I were to hedge on one side, I'd say the chances are a bit greater than 50%. The Central Illinois National Weather Service office has a 30% chance beginning at 5PM. I can say it's about a 100% chance for much of Western and Northern Illinois -- so again, the question is how much that precipitation will hold together as it moves into East-Central IL later today/tonight.
I'm not certain if I'll have a chance to update later, but if I do, I will.
It's really a mixed message, unfortunately.
At 10AM, it's 76 degrees and humid in Champaign. Partly cloudy skies. South wind at 10 MPH. There's an area of light to moderate rain showers not far to the west, over Central Illinois this morning. While a few rain drop could sneak into Champaign over the next couple of hours, most or all of that precipitation should fade. Temperature this afternoon will likely top out over 80.
Here's the concern: There's a good chances a line of showers and thunderstorms (some heavy/strong) will develop over Western Illinois the middle of this afternoon -- then track eastward. About half the computer models diminish or completely dissipate the precipitation before it reaches Champaign, as it runs into an area that is still under the influence of high pressure. The other half of the models hold the precipitation together as it moves into Champaign -- somewhere around the time of kickoff (plus or minus an hour). Yes, good chance any rain that does reach Champaign (if it does) will include thunderstorms (lightning).
A weather model I rely on quite a bit for Texas forecasting is not at all kind for the game this evening. It suggests multiple hours of showers and thunderstorms.
If I take everything into account, it's truly a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms in Champaign, between 6PM and midnight. But if I were to hedge on one side, I'd say the chances are a bit greater than 50%. The Central Illinois National Weather Service office has a 30% chance beginning at 5PM. I can say it's about a 100% chance for much of Western and Northern Illinois -- so again, the question is how much that precipitation will hold together as it moves into East-Central IL later today/tonight.
I'm not certain if I'll have a chance to update later, but if I do, I will.
Final Update at 4:30PM Saturday.
It's currently 83 in Champaign and a bit windy. South wind 20-25 MPH. The wind will still be a bit of a factor at kickoff but will diminish some during the game.
Thus far today, showers and thunderstorms have been common in North and Western Illinois. As they moved into Central Illinois, they've generally weakened under the influence of relatively higher pressure. I think that will hold to form for the next several hours. Yes, it's possible a scattered shower or thunderstorm could make it into Champaign at any point, I think the keyword is scattered -- meaning it's very unlikely to be a large area of continuous showers and thunderstorms if it does rain at all. It would probably also weaken. I should note, however, there are some signs that the shower and thunderstorm activity may increase after 10PM.
At any one point between now and 10PM, rain chances are in the 30% probability. Increasing to 40% between 10 PM and midnight. Over 40% after midnight.
It's going to be something to keep an eye on this evening because I simply can't rule out some sort of rain sneaking into Champaign during the game. But my final call is that it's somewhere between my "very little worry" from the past couple of days to "omg, this doesn't look good" over the past 18 hours. There are rain chances -- they aren't large chances but they aren't zero. But as mentioned several times, the worst will be over Northern and Western Illinois.
It's currently 83 in Champaign and a bit windy. South wind 20-25 MPH. The wind will still be a bit of a factor at kickoff but will diminish some during the game.
Thus far today, showers and thunderstorms have been common in North and Western Illinois. As they moved into Central Illinois, they've generally weakened under the influence of relatively higher pressure. I think that will hold to form for the next several hours. Yes, it's possible a scattered shower or thunderstorm could make it into Champaign at any point, I think the keyword is scattered -- meaning it's very unlikely to be a large area of continuous showers and thunderstorms if it does rain at all. It would probably also weaken. I should note, however, there are some signs that the shower and thunderstorm activity may increase after 10PM.
At any one point between now and 10PM, rain chances are in the 30% probability. Increasing to 40% between 10 PM and midnight. Over 40% after midnight.
It's going to be something to keep an eye on this evening because I simply can't rule out some sort of rain sneaking into Champaign during the game. But my final call is that it's somewhere between my "very little worry" from the past couple of days to "omg, this doesn't look good" over the past 18 hours. There are rain chances -- they aren't large chances but they aren't zero. But as mentioned several times, the worst will be over Northern and Western Illinois.
