I still take questions, but hard to have concrete answers as we deal with a public policy nightmare.
1. Still true that the majority of adults will get COVID sooner or later? I recall early estimates of 80%.
It would seem to me that barring a vaccine, and the degree to which the infection in the community that a high percentage will become infected. 80% makes sense if you go back and look at herd immunity modeling. Basically there are enough immune people that are blocking spread of the infection by not becoming sick themselves they prevent the spread of disease once the population is nearly saturated. All of this depends on the development of "durable immunity" or lasting protection, whether that comes from a vaccine or natural infection. Unfortunately that hasn't been determined at this point. My GUESS is that the natural infection is potent enough to be leading to lasting immunity, however, mild cases may not achieve that. Science on that topic is still unresolved at this point.
2. I've believed that – if contracting COVID is inevitable – getting it later is preferable to getting it sooner. Is that a productive assumption?
Interesting proposition and answer potentially differs if you are thinking on an individual level or a societal one. I can come up with arguments/examples both pro and con. Early infection, got it done with and over. Maybe immune. Thats nice. Medical care still working out treatment protocols and societal fears are high. Society, wants the slow infection, less taxing on healthcare system, though I believe we are pretty well ramped upon on goods/supply front.(ventilators are able to be distributed to hot spots). Example, from influenza (1918 pandemic), later was bad, after 15 or so generations, or passages through individuals, host adaptation was maximized and disease much more devastating. Personally, given the mutation rates and mechanisms of replication, SARS-CoV-2 is much less likely to do this and the mutations this far with the recent uptick aren't quite the same as with the 2nd wave of the great influenza. So basically, if know going to catch it, it is 6 of one and a half dozen of another on the timing.
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