1-2 ATS last week leaves me at 13-10-1 on the year ATS. I hate that we are rapidly approaching .500 so I will be extra careful with these picks!
Before we go too far about the picks. I was fortunate enough to be in attendance for the MU/LSU game. What a tremendous experience this was! A goal-line stand to win the game was just amazing to watch. For years, MU has managed to break my heart more often than not in that situation but this was fantastic.
Let's start out talking about MIZZOU (+4) vs. Kentucky tomorrow. Kentucky has won five in a row in this series although that might deserve at least an asterisk. Mizzou fans recall the series of blown calls that handed Kentucky the game two years ago. A bogus defensive pass interference penalty followed by a horrible missed OPI handed Kentucky the game. In 2017, Kentucky should have been issued a defensive delay of game penalty when Josh Allen purposely knocked the ball out of J'Mon Moore's hands as MU was driving for what would have been the winning score. Instead, the incompetent refs allowed the clock to basically run out.
The refs were disciplined either publicly or quietly for incompetence after the 2017 and 2018 games. But last year Kentucky dominated a Mizzou team that didn't appear to want to be playing football in the rain by running over the Tigers.
Kentucky has some old school SEC toughness on both lines and I was surprised and impressed with how they dispatched Tennessee last week very easily. Despite some bad turnovers and dumb mistakes at times the Kentucky lines have been good. Meanwhile, Mizzou is a little less proven in the trenches but the 0/10 third down performance by LSU last week is very encouraging.
The line has moved down considerably in the last 24 hours. I lean MU here but I feel we have lost some line value so I am going to all this detail to not make an official pick on this game. I'm cautiously optimistic as I think we have a real winner at QB in Bazelak but I can't put this as an official pick.
On to other games.
South Carolina at LSU (-6) - So here is a game that will actually affect how I view the MU game a little later on Saturday. I THINK LSU is better than they appeared against Mizzou and MSU this year. A lot of experts are suggesting we take South Carolina and the points. I am taking the opposite approach. MU's innovative offense caught LSU completely flat-footed and this is a great chance to "buy low" on the Tigers.
LSU is the pick. They win by 17
I get great feedback on these picks from my Nebraska friends and I will try to make some Big Ten picks this year but I can't pick games when I really don't know much of what to expect. I am going to make one exception though.
I could look foolish but I still feel like Michigan is a bit overrated and I can take a solid Minnesota team at home getting points. Yeah, I'm in. I will take MINNESOTA (+3.5)
For a number of reasons I would love to see Kansas State destroy ku tomorrow but I think the offense has taken a step back with the Thompson injury and this is going to be the game you get ku's best effort.
I can't believe I am doing this but I will take ku (+20) in this one. So sadly I am picking AGAINST K-STATE!
You never know when Tennessee will get momentum and when they will trend badly in the other direction. Well they are trending badly now and playing Alabama isn't a cure for that. This may be cheating but I may have gotten ALABAMA -21 so I am going to use that as the line here!
Finally, I feel the week off should have done TEXAS TECH (+3) a lot of good and I'm just not that impressed with West Virginia. As bad as the Red Raiders looked against Iowa State, I like for them to bounce back and win against WVU here with a substantial home field advantage.
That's all for this week. Good luck to your (non Wildcat) team!
Before we go too far about the picks. I was fortunate enough to be in attendance for the MU/LSU game. What a tremendous experience this was! A goal-line stand to win the game was just amazing to watch. For years, MU has managed to break my heart more often than not in that situation but this was fantastic.
Let's start out talking about MIZZOU (+4) vs. Kentucky tomorrow. Kentucky has won five in a row in this series although that might deserve at least an asterisk. Mizzou fans recall the series of blown calls that handed Kentucky the game two years ago. A bogus defensive pass interference penalty followed by a horrible missed OPI handed Kentucky the game. In 2017, Kentucky should have been issued a defensive delay of game penalty when Josh Allen purposely knocked the ball out of J'Mon Moore's hands as MU was driving for what would have been the winning score. Instead, the incompetent refs allowed the clock to basically run out.
The refs were disciplined either publicly or quietly for incompetence after the 2017 and 2018 games. But last year Kentucky dominated a Mizzou team that didn't appear to want to be playing football in the rain by running over the Tigers.
Kentucky has some old school SEC toughness on both lines and I was surprised and impressed with how they dispatched Tennessee last week very easily. Despite some bad turnovers and dumb mistakes at times the Kentucky lines have been good. Meanwhile, Mizzou is a little less proven in the trenches but the 0/10 third down performance by LSU last week is very encouraging.
The line has moved down considerably in the last 24 hours. I lean MU here but I feel we have lost some line value so I am going to all this detail to not make an official pick on this game. I'm cautiously optimistic as I think we have a real winner at QB in Bazelak but I can't put this as an official pick.
On to other games.
South Carolina at LSU (-6) - So here is a game that will actually affect how I view the MU game a little later on Saturday. I THINK LSU is better than they appeared against Mizzou and MSU this year. A lot of experts are suggesting we take South Carolina and the points. I am taking the opposite approach. MU's innovative offense caught LSU completely flat-footed and this is a great chance to "buy low" on the Tigers.
LSU is the pick. They win by 17
I get great feedback on these picks from my Nebraska friends and I will try to make some Big Ten picks this year but I can't pick games when I really don't know much of what to expect. I am going to make one exception though.
I could look foolish but I still feel like Michigan is a bit overrated and I can take a solid Minnesota team at home getting points. Yeah, I'm in. I will take MINNESOTA (+3.5)
For a number of reasons I would love to see Kansas State destroy ku tomorrow but I think the offense has taken a step back with the Thompson injury and this is going to be the game you get ku's best effort.
I can't believe I am doing this but I will take ku (+20) in this one. So sadly I am picking AGAINST K-STATE!
You never know when Tennessee will get momentum and when they will trend badly in the other direction. Well they are trending badly now and playing Alabama isn't a cure for that. This may be cheating but I may have gotten ALABAMA -21 so I am going to use that as the line here!
Finally, I feel the week off should have done TEXAS TECH (+3) a lot of good and I'm just not that impressed with West Virginia. As bad as the Red Raiders looked against Iowa State, I like for them to bounce back and win against WVU here with a substantial home field advantage.
That's all for this week. Good luck to your (non Wildcat) team!
