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MizzouRah's Picks Week III

MizzouRah

Scout Team
15 Year Member
The ATS picks are off to a solid start this year so hopefully, we can keep the winning ways going in week three. I was 5-2 ATS last week which puts the picks at 10-6 on the season. I traveled over to Columbia last weekend but with the 11 AM game, I was able to watch quite a bit of football.

This week I am staying at home and breaking in my YouTube TV and the plan is to have three streams going at once! So I finally will get completely immersed in college football. I'm afraid that YouTube TV does not have the SEC Alternate Channel so I will have to decide whether to go to a bar or just listen to the internet feed and watch the replay. First world problems and all that. Anyway, there are some intriguing games so let's take a look at them!

As for MIZZOU, I was obviously very pleased with the performance against West Virginia. I really believe the Wyoming performance was going to prove to be outside of the norm and there is still hope for a strong season.

It's unusual to see a line against an FCS opponent out this early in the week but I am seeing MU -34 points. That seems a little low but apparently, SEMO has become a very good team at the FCS level. Still, I hope and expect the question of whether MU covers or not to rely on the backups for MU and the overall level of play late in the game for SEMO (which I have no way of predicting). So it's a NO BET on the MIZZOU game this week.

Florida (-8) at Kentucky - Terry Wilson's injury is a set back for UK but I don't anticipate a huge dropoff with the backup QB. I feel as though Florida has enough problems on offense and Kentucky has enough back on defense that I need to take the points here. I don't expect an outright upset but KENTUCKY IS THE PICK.

Washington State (-9) at Houston - I realize they have played weak competition but I believe in Mike Leach at the Washington State offense. I just don't want to get on the wrong side of this momentum and I don't expect the long trip to affect the Cougs that much as they face several of those in the Pac 12 most years.

WASHINGTON STATE IS THE PICK 44-28

Kansas State (+7.5) at Mississippi State - The 'Cats have really looked fantastic these first two weeks although the competition has been weak. I feel the coaching change has put a jolt of energy into this program and the overall execution has been tremendous.

HOWEVER, I was at the MSU vs K-State game last year. Mississippi State was much bigger, faster, and more athletic overall. If K-State even covers here I will be extremely impressed because I know what I saw in person.

MISSISSIPPI STATE is the pick here 37-16

North Carolina State (-6.5) is a road favorite over West Virginia. I know that Mizzou dominated the Mountaineers completely last week. The stats were really overwhelming but I am going to give some credit to the home team here for playing well. This is one of those games where it feels like Vegas is daring us to play on NC State. When they do that I always want to go the other way.

WEST VIRGINIA is the pick they lose 26-24

I'm kind of fading Florida this year because I think they will have more struggles on offense than most folks expect. Still, I think they are a very good team. Arkansas (-10) meanwhile is NOT a good team. Colorado State isn't good either but I certainly expect them to be competitive against a poor offensive team. I might consider a small money line bet here but either way, COLORADO STATE is the pick as I get to take ten points.

Iowa (-2) has obviously been super impressive in their first two games. I don't really worry so much about Iowa State struggling early in the season so this isn't really bet against ISU as much as it is a bet on Iowa. I'm looking at a few analytic based rankings and they tend to really like Iowa (they love Mizzou which may make me think highly of them!) and I see no reason to disagree. I hate to lay points in a game that is almost always close but I'll do it here.

IOWA is the pick - they win 20-13

I had to sweat BYU a bit last week as they came back to tie the game late which put the ATS result in doubt but I should have known they would ride that momentum to beat Tennessee. I think the backup QB for USC obviously looked fantastic but now he has to go into the game as a starter which may be more difficult and I like the fight this BYU team displayed and even though the score didn't show it they weren't that outclassed against Utah. Give me the home dog (+4) here.

BYU IS THE PICK.

Sorry if I didn't get to your favorite game but these are the games that jump out at me early. Feel free to comment with games you might like!

That's all for this week! Good luck to your (non-Redhawk) team!
 

Red Reign

Husker Immortal
10 Year Member
As always thanks!

K-State with a great young coach Chris Klieman plucked from North Dakota State might surprise a few folks. Great hire
 

MizzouRah

Scout Team
15 Year Member
I'm very impressed with him as I deal with some folks who work with him but are behind the scenes. He treats them very well when some coaches do not. I think he will do really well but watching that game last year the difference in the overall athleticism was pretty substantial.
 

Ellis Boyd Redding

Travel Squad
5 Year Member
MizzouRah I’ll be at the game in Columbia this weekend for Parents Weekend. Too bad you aren’t going or I’d let you know my tailgate plans. Only problem is Mizzou and Nebraska are both night games so I’ll have to DVR the Huskers.
 

One Hit Wonder

Recruit
2 Year Member
I went conservative again and stayed with only 2 bets. Ohio St to cover and the over on No. Ill/Utah. I'm 4-0 so i will play a few extra this weekend with the free money.

I was thinking the opposite and like Florida. Same with NC State but I dont like either game to bet as of now. Your other picks are intriguing and I need to do some research.

I like a number of games. N. Carolina (+3), Alabama (-25 1/2), Michigan St (-13 1/2), Ohio St (-16), UCF (-7) and many others.
 
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Pops

I have squandered my resistance
10 Year Member
Took Iowa and Washington state as well.

Thought about the K state game but felt like I was diving into the unknown.
Thanks
 

MizzouRah

Scout Team
15 Year Member
MizzouRah I’ll be at the game in Columbia this weekend for Parents Weekend. Too bad you aren’t going or I’d let you know my tailgate plans. Only problem is Mizzou and Nebraska are both night games so I’ll have to DVR the Huskers.
Have fun. I think they have done a really nice job with the concerts in front of the Hearnes Center before games, I think it's Ozark Mountain Daredevils this week which is actually cool to me. Generally, Sterk has done a good job of making the events more of a happening and I think the beer sales are going well in terms of very few irresponsible people.

I was actually in a suite last week so I didn't see the difference (I am far from a high roller but I have a rich friend of a friend who sells me tickets to one game a year so I can take my Dad to a game, it's the only way he can attend).
 

Cardinal

Blackshirt
10 Year Member
Rah,

My sheet's top two picks:

Colorado St over Arkansas by 10; in a high scoring game: 48-38. "Ram D is leaky, but Ark has not the ability to take advantage;" 48-38

Maryland over Temple by 24; home game for Temple but really more of a neutral field at Philly Eagles' Lincoln Financial Field, plenty of tix allowing a lot of Maryland fans to make the short trip; revenge game; Temple graduated their two best players on each side of the ball from last year. 38-14

Two of their next four picks contradict yours: they have ISU over Iowa 27-19 (extra week to prepare; raucous crowd; four year revenge); and USC by 14 over BYU (a game I am not going to play; I don't trust SC yet) (sheet says "breakthrough" for USC last week; let down by BYU after 2 OTs vs Tennessee)
 
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