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Losing My Religion

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Oregon has talent oozing out of every pore in their system. They have been a top 10 recruiting team for years. They get more top 150 players in one year than we get in 5-10 years. They get 5-10 players drafted every year.

Our roster is lucky to get one or two players drafted per year. We are lucky to get a day 1 player drafted.

Jimmy's and Joe's not X's and O's.

Our geography and lack of credibility as an elite program are the two biggest hindrances our program faces. Our revolving door coaching staff and constantly changing systems is close behind.

If we finish above .500, I'll consider myself pleasantly surprised.
They had Nike NIL before we ever heard of NIL!
 
Oregon has talent oozing out of every pore in their system. They have been a top 10 recruiting team for years. They get more top 150 players in one year than we get in 5-10 years. They get 5-10 players drafted every year.

Our roster is lucky to get one or two players drafted per year. We are lucky to get a day 1 player drafted.

Jimmy's and Joe's not X's and O's.

Our geography and lack of credibility as an elite program are the two biggest hindrances our program faces. Our revolving door coaching staff and constantly changing systems is close behind.

If we finish above .500, I'll consider myself pleasantly surprised.
So you’re saying a top 25 roster shouldnt expect more than 6 wins? Ok gotcha. Oregon isn’t unbeatable. NU should compete against them. They aren’t chopped liver. Indiana beat them twice last year, with only 6, 4* players on its roster. Location is BS excuse. Nebraska constantly does less with more.
 
Losing your religion is fine.
Just don't lose your faith or sovereignty.
It's a game, played by teenager's.
And the "religion" ( college football) is changing.
So is it's relevance, in my world
I don't support Bad Religion, unless it's the punk band from California.
Fan since the 90's.
 
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So you’re saying a top 25 roster shouldnt expect more than 6 wins? Ok gotcha. Oregon isn’t unbeatable. NU should compete against them. They aren’t chopped liver. Indiana beat them twice last year, with only 6, 4* players on its roster. Location is BS excuse. Nebraska constantly does less with more.

We definitely don't develop players well. Part of that is our revolving door coaching staff and constantly changing offensive and defensive schemes. I highly question the ability of the recruiting services to predict anything outside of the top 10 recruiting classes. As I posted previously, here is the breakdown of All American and NFL draft picks by high school stars. We overwhelmingly get 3 star guys out of high school. Only 1 out of 19 three star players get drafted. only 1 out of 200 becomes a first round pick. We get a few four stars a year and almost never any 5 start players. Contrast that with Oregon who gets 10-20 4 and 5 star prospects a year.

Indiana rebuilt 70% of their starting roster. They were smart enough and had the funds to find those 2 and 3 star guys who proved they could play at a high level in college and brought them in through the transfer portal. They have 3 player threatening first round pick status. It's not a coincidence.

We recruit roughly at the level of a mid-tier big 10 program. Mostly 3 star who, as shown below, are mostly a crapshoot who usually don't become stars. Iowa and Wisconsin (before they blew themselves up) succeeded in part by having continuity and consistency in vision. We just keep blowing things up and trying to start over. Wisconsin is getting a taste of how that goes.

Reality is that the best players don't want to go to Nebraska. A big part of it is geography, but guys want to win and we haven't won anything in a generation. I had hoped NIL might entice some guys to come to Lincoln, but to this point it hasn't made a material difference.

We are in the bottom half of the big 10 in terms of producing NFL talent. Yeah, some of that is our sorry player development driven in no small part by a lack of continuity.

Every reasonable metric says we are mid tier big 10 team.

Prospect RatingPopulation (Annual)All-American RateNFL Draft Rate1st Round Draft Rate
5-Star~32–35~33% – 38%63% – 71%~34%
4-Star~300–350~10% – 12%22% – 25%~3.8%
3-Star~1,800–2,000~1% – 2%6% – 7%~0.4%
 
Every reasonable metric says we are mid tier big 10 team.
Barely.
Here's a list of average conference wins per team since we joined in 2011 (I left out the west coast teams because they've only been in the conference for two years.)
big ten.png

We are at the bottom of the middle third. We've had 5 .500+ seasons in 15 years, 4 of them occurred in the first four years (Bo's last 4 seasons and Riley's 2nd.) None Nine straight years of sub .500 in conference games. We've got a long haul to get back to respectable.
 
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We definitely don't develop players well. Part of that is our revolving door coaching staff and constantly changing offensive and defensive schemes. I highly question the ability of the recruiting services to predict anything outside of the top 10 recruiting classes. As I posted previously, here is the breakdown of All American and NFL draft picks by high school stars. We overwhelmingly get 3 star guys out of high school. Only 1 out of 19 three star players get drafted. only 1 out of 200 becomes a first round pick. We get a few four stars a year and almost never any 5 start players. Contrast that with Oregon who gets 10-20 4 and 5 star prospects a year.

Indiana rebuilt 70% of their starting roster. They were smart enough and had the funds to find those 2 and 3 star guys who proved they could play at a high level in college and brought them in through the transfer portal. They have 3 player threatening first round pick status. It's not a coincidence.

We recruit roughly at the level of a mid-tier big 10 program. Mostly 3 star who, as shown below, are mostly a crapshoot who usually don't become stars. Iowa and Wisconsin (before they blew themselves up) succeeded in part by having continuity and consistency in vision. We just keep blowing things up and trying to start over. Wisconsin is getting a taste of how that goes.

Reality is that the best players don't want to go to Nebraska. A big part of it is geography, but guys want to win and we haven't won anything in a generation. I had hoped NIL might entice some guys to come to Lincoln, but to this point it hasn't made a material difference.

We are in the bottom half of the big 10 in terms of producing NFL talent. Yeah, some of that is our sorry player development driven in no small part by a lack of continuity.

Every reasonable metric says we are mid tier big 10 team.


Prospect RatingPopulation (Annual)All-American RateNFL Draft Rate1st Round Draft Rate
5-Star~32–35~33% – 38%63% – 71%~34%
4-Star~300–350~10% – 12%22% – 25%~3.8%
3-Star~1,800–2,000~1% – 2%6% – 7%~0.4%
Unfortunately, in today’s world, player development means that you have created a more valuable commodity on the open market who is either going to demand more money or move on. That’s why I question whether player development is even important anymore. It really boils down to how much money you have.
 
Barely.
Here's a list of average conference wins per team since we joined in 2011 (I left out the west coast teams because they've only been in the conference for two years.)
View attachment 124409
We are at the bottom of the middle third. We've had 5 .500+ seasons in 15 years, 4 of them occurred in the first four years (Bo's last 4 seasons and Riley's 2nd.) None straight years of sub .500 in conference games. We've got a long haul to get back to respectable.
I was probably being generous calling us a mid-tier program. I think we have traditionally recruited as a mid tier program but I'm not sure how much that matters in 2026 with the portal
 
I lived in Nebraska during the '90s, but could never afford to get to a game. Managed to get to a handful of games in the intervening years after leaving Nebraska, a couple of times in Lincoln, and a couple of times when they traveled.

Finally returned to Nebraska in 2021, and finally at a place in life where I could afford season tickets, which still felt like acquiring a Holy Grail when I made the plunge to get them for the 2023 season. I don't think I have missed a single home game since then. I live only 45 minutes away from the stadium.

Last year, at the USC game, was the first time that I questioned the investment. Season tickets, with the donation, are not cheap. I don't have to travel too far, but it is still expensive to do all of the things, and it basically consumes an entire day even as a local, it is a physical and emotional investment, takes a couple of days to recover from. The team did not put out a product that made it worth attending, and for the first time I felt like seriously reconsidering if the investment was worth it. Sitting there in the stands with one of my sons, thinking about any of the variety of other things we could have done that day that would have given us better memories. I don't mind the team losing a game, I mind when the effort is mediocre, like why are any of us bothering to pay and come watch this when I could have just had it on at home.

Then we ended the home series by getting stomped by Iowa, another mediocre product game. I used to look upon people leaving the stadium early with a little contempt, but on that day, we joined them. I had never left a game early before.

I renewed my season tickets for this fall, but I'm not going to lie, it isn't going to take very many additional events where I feel like product is not worth the expense, and I will be done. Not saying I will never go to a game again, but I would pick and choose. Sitting in my climate controlled home with access to the fridge and the beer and the comfy recliner -- for no additional money -- is pretty appealing.

We are coming up on 20 years of this year is going to be the year where we return to competitive relevance, it's an awfully long time to keep getting rugpulled. It sure does not help that the players come and go, and we are no longer in a college environment with commitments and longevity that promotes investment in the players and their stories.

So I guess I wrote this very long essay just to say that I get where you are coming from.
You must be my lost twin. Almost identical story, except I did give them up this year.

I’ll go to a game or two, but watching a team with no identity and less interest in the game than me is not fun.
 
I believe our basketball team showed that our fans would positively respond when Nebraska puts a winning program on the floor. Look how our fans attended all our home games and the NCAA tournament run. Our major problem with our football program is CLEARLY lack of success imo. Who wants to watch endless loses to teams like IA? Then get pounded by the big names like Michigan, OSU, USC, OR. and now IND? That clearly sucks and it’s hard to watch even on TV let alone going to games. How about the fan support of our Volleyball program... as good as anywhere in the country. Sadly our football program clearly has SUCKED in boxcar letters most of the last 25 years. What happens now with millions of dollars deciding who gets most of the best players is another issue.... Start winning and Nebraska fan enthusiasm will greatly improve imo...
 
That is happening all across college football…not just at Nebraska.

Yep. With the top 10 money programs gathering the developed talent. Rinse, lather, and repeat.

It's not about your tradition, conference, or fan support anymore. It's about who your billionaire sugar daddy is.
 
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