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I don't always agree with you, but I think you are spot on with that statement. I don't see NU shelling out $3 million for a new coach. It's too risky, and there is no guarantee that $3 million will get you a better coach than $2 million will, or even $1.5 million.
I think what is being overlooked is the conference switch - there are several coaches probably desirous of the chance to coach in one of the nation's best basketball conferences.