All Big 10
5 Year Member
I think there is a concern in Vegas that DONU will eventually have a let down. This seems like a ga.e tailor .ade for that.The line on this game confuses me.
First, for the first time in several years, Nebraska has actually done well ATS this season.
Typically, Vegas will adjust for trends like that. I tend to think Vegas could have set the line at NU -6.5 to -7.5 range, and they would have gotten closer to equal money on both sides (which is their goal). But instead, they opened at -3 and it's about -4 on average currently (meaning, the early money has come in on Nebraska).
Just the eyeball test tells me Nebraska should win by 10+. So why is the spread so low? I'm sure some of that is based on recent history between the two teams. And that we are 0-3 on the road this season. But still, there's little doubt Nebraska is an improved team -- and I think there's doubt Minnesota can say the same.
Anyhow, whenever I see a line that seems misguided, I think Vegas knows what they are doing. There's a psychological red flag to this line. I find it worrisome because it defies what I consider logical reason.
I haven't bet in many years. And even if I did, I wouldn't bet on Nebraska games. But it seems so clear to me Nebraska should cover -3.5 to -4. So if I was forced to bet, that's the way I would go. But due to the red flag this line is sending me, I'd actually completely avoid it.