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FSU Lawsuit Will Likely End the ACC

DuckTownHusker

DuckTownHusker

Blackshirt Sith Lord
10 Year Member
It's looking more and more like FSU will completely dismantle the ACC if when they leave.

Long story short - the Seminoles ARE the main TV draw for the ACC, and the upcoming Grant Of Rights Extension hangs on the ACC being able to put forth a viable TV product to ESPN.

In other words, if FSU leaves ESPN will likely lowball the ACC even further (no 'Noles games), meaning that FSU's departure will very much create a domino effect of teams like UNC, Clemson, Miami, etc., all jumping ship. Those who can afford to find new homes will, but there's a pretty good chance that some of the teams like Wake Forest, etc., get left behind much like Oregon State and Washington State after the Pac-12 Exodus.

www.tomahawknation.com

Florida State’s amended lawsuit shows university is prepared to break ACC in fight for survival

If Florida State leaves the ACC, it will cause the conference to implode like the PAC-12
www.tomahawknation.com www.tomahawknation.com
 
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The NCAA, as we knew it, is done. A new super league (or two) is around the corner. I predict the Big 10 and SEC will break off together and go their own way, and the Big 12 and ACC will do the same. Eventually, the champs of those two leagues will play each other for the college Super Bowl.

The bigger question is, what governance is there for the vast majority of college programs that are not in the super leagues - the smaller D1, D2, and D3 programs?
 
There's a good guy on Twitter that's been all over this for years. He's been saying FSU is going to leave the ACC and the ACC will either fold or go the Big12 way, which is to say irrelevant. He's been pushing a Power 2 conference for 3'ish years and he's been mostly dead on so far.

He's very plugged in on the B1G side and the rest he says he picks up from his sources and research.
 
WestTexasHusker said:
The NCAA, as we knew it, is done. A new super league (or two) is around the corner. I predict the Big 10 and SEC will break off together and go their own way, and the Big 12 and ACC will do the same. Eventually, the champs of those two leagues will play each other for the college Super Bowl.

The bigger question is, what governance is there for the vast majority of college programs that are not in the super leagues - the smaller D1, D2, and D3 programs?
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The Big 12 and ACC will eventually become a minor league, they aren't going to be in the playoffs at all in the next 10 years. It will be all B1G and SEC schools. B1G likely to get to 20 schools and SEC 16, maybe 18. The only lone school out of those two conferences will be ND.
 


NU_Alum said:
The Big 12 and ACC will eventually become a minor league, they aren't going to be in the playoffs at all in the next 10 years. It will be all B1G and SEC schools. B1G likely to get to 20 schools and SEC 16, maybe 18. The only lone school out of those two conferences will be ND.
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Could be. If that's the case, it won't be "all B1G and SEC schools" in the playoffs. It will be a small subset of those conferences, and the same teams every year. I don't see a national viewership for only 35 or so college programs, with only 5 or 6 of those being able to spend like drunk billionaires, but time will tell.
 
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It's not the FSU is the top dog in the conference as far as TV sets, that's probably UNC. It's that if FSU leaves, it gives an out to Clemson to leave as well, which means that UNC and NC State and Miami will follow.

The best thing to happen for the overall health of college football and basketball is for the Big 12 take a majority of those schools, and we have 3 superconferences instead of 2. What will probably happen is the SEC and Big 10 will split the biggest ACC schools and the rest will end up in the American. Sigh.
 
NU_Alum said:
There's a good guy on Twitter that's been all over this for years. He's been saying FSU is going to leave the ACC and the ACC will either fold or go the Big12 way, which is to say irrelevant. He's been pushing a Power 2 conference for 3'ish years and he's been mostly dead on so far.

He's very plugged in on the B1G side and the rest he says he picks up from his sources and research.
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The Big 12 is still quite relevant in Big 12 country, BTW. Lots of good football. Even without UT and OU, the Big 12 owns the W/Ls versus the B1G over the last decade. If it wasn't for Iowa State's annual egg, the disparity would be pretty big.
 
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goodnterribles said:
It's not the FSU is the top dog in the conference as far as TV sets, that's probably UNC. It's that if FSU leaves, it gives an out to Clemson to leave as well, which means that UNC and NC State and Miami will follow.

The best thing to happen for the overall health of college football and basketball is for the Big 12 take a majority of those schools, and we have 3 superconferences instead of 2. What will probably happen is the SEC and Big 10 will split the biggest ACC schools and the rest will end up in the American. Sigh.
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UNC is the B1G's top target according to a few people that seem to know what they're talking about. FSU is #2. Miami and Clemson are next but even those are only maybe takes for either the B1G or SEC.

I suspect FSU and UNC end up in the B1G. Miami and Clemson go to the SEC and the everyone else dies off by early 2030's. By dies off I mean, they start their own little league that is much more the CFB of old. Players stay longer, aren't paid jack, but the level of talent is low too.
 
NU_Alum said:
UNC is the B1G's top target according to a few people that seem to know what they're talking about. FSU is #2. Miami and Clemson are next but even those are only maybe takes for either the B1G or SEC.

I suspect FSU and UNC end up in the B1G. Miami and Clemson go to the SEC and the everyone else dies off by early 2030's. By dies off I mean, they start their own little league that is much more the CFB of old. Players stay longer, aren't paid jack, but the level of talent is low too.
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I've lived in NC since 1984, and this really makes me sad. ACC basketball has been a close second to NU football for me for a long time. The ACC tournament was one of the greatest sporting events held in the country, sometimes even more important than the NCAA tournament. It's already been bastardized over the years because of expansion, so instead of Friday-Sunday, it's become Tuesday-Saturday, and last year they decided that not everyone will even get into the conference tournament.
That being said, an ACC without UNC or NC State is ridiculous. And if the leadership really wanted to, they could do whatever they want with football, and leave the old conferences alone for all other sports. The Big East reformed with the Catholic schools for basketball only, I don't know why everyone else can't do the same.
 
goodnterribles said:
I've lived in NC since 1984, and this really makes me sad. ACC basketball has been a close second to NU football for me for a long time. The ACC tournament was one of the greatest sporting events held in the country, sometimes even more important than the NCAA tournament. It's already been bastardized over the years because of expansion, so instead of Friday-Sunday, it's become Tuesday-Saturday, and last year they decided that not everyone will even get into the conference tournament.
That being said, an ACC without UNC or NC State is ridiculous. And if the leadership really wanted to, they could do whatever they want with football, and leave the old conferences alone for all other sports. The Big East reformed with the Catholic schools for basketball only, I don't know why everyone else can't do the same.
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I could see basketball getting it's own "league" that's outside of the P2 but honestly I think that's going to be hard. The money that the P2 will be getting will allow them to pay players/coaches more money, have better facilities, etc... I would expect that to apply to basketball for sure.
 


WestTexasHusker said:
The NCAA, as we knew it, is done. A new super league (or two) is around the corner. I predict the Big 10 and SEC will break off together and go their own way, and the Big 12 and ACC will do the same. Eventually, the champs of those two leagues will play each other for the college Super Bowl.

The bigger question is, what governance is there for the vast majority of college programs that are not in the super leagues - the smaller D1, D2, and D3 programs?
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If Clemson FSU , Miami and either UNC or VaTech leave for football. ACC best bet may be to become a BBall conference alla Big East.
 
goodnterribles said:
I've lived in NC since 1984, and this really makes me sad. ACC basketball has been a close second to NU football for me for a long time. The ACC tournament was one of the greatest sporting events held in the country, sometimes even more important than the NCAA tournament. It's already been bastardized over the years because of expansion, so instead of Friday-Sunday, it's become Tuesday-Saturday, and last year they decided that not everyone will even get into the conference tournament.
That being said, an ACC without UNC or NC State is ridiculous. And if the leadership really wanted to, they could do whatever they want with football, and leave the old conferences alone for all other sports. The Big East reformed with the Catholic schools for basketball only, I don't know why everyone else can't do the same.
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I'm not quite so bearish on the ACC. There will be 64 to 70 teams that play big boy ball. The B1G and SEC, by themselves, do not possess a national audience to make the numbers work. Arizona, K-State, Utah, Texas Tech, Baylor, and Louisville alums and fans are not suddenly going to become Nebraska fans. It doesn't work that way.

One thing that is true: There are only 6 to 8 programs in this country that can spend like drunk billionaires and basically buy themselves a pro team every year. And none of them are in the ACC or Big 12. The list is short: Texas, A&M, Stanford (if they choose to play), Notre Date (ditto), Ohio State, and Michigan. UW and Oregon could possibly be on that list, but iffy. So essentially, we have a 6-8 team league, and then everyone else. Nebraska isn't even sniffing tier 2. Sobering reality.
 
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WestTexasHusker said:
I'm not quite so bearish on the ACC. There will be 64 to 70 teams that play big boy ball. The B1G and SEC, by themselves, do not possess a national audience to make the numbers work. Arizona, K-State, Utah, Texas Tech, Baylor, and Louisville alums and fans are not suddenly going to become Nebraska fans. It doesn't work that way.

One thing that is true: There are only 6 to 8 programs in this country that can spend like drunk billionaires and basically buy themselves a pro team every year. And none of them are in the ACC or Big 12. The list is short: Texas, A&M, Stanford (if they choose to play), Notre Date (ditto), Ohio State, and Michigan. UW and Oregon could possibly be on that list, but iffy. So essentially, we have a 6-8 team league, and then everyone else. Nebraska isn't even sniffing tier 2. Sobering reality.
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Those schools you mentioned (Louisville's KSU's, etc...) don't account for anything tv ratings wise.


Remove CO as they were a 1/maybe 2 year wonder with Deion for tv. purposes. If FSU and Clemson leave the ACC, it would be the top 48 or so of the top 55 most watched games were B1G or SEC. 4 are ND and 5 are CO. Yes there is some overlap, but the point is that virtually no one is going to watch the Big12 or ACC games. No one is really watching the Big 12 now.



2022 numbers. TCU is the first non-B1G/SEC team outside of ND and Clemson/FSU to crack the list and they're at 13 (which isn't bad). Then Ok. State at 24. TCU likely won't rank that high again as they had a crazy good year in 2022. If that's accurate, there was exactly 1 Big12/ACC school (again, presuming FSU/Clemson/UNC leave) in the top 25. KSU and them rank with the Indiana's.
 
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