This will be a long post, buckle up.
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The inevitable B1G+SEC separation. It's becoming more and more clear that the B1G and SEC see themselves as a notch above the rest of the Power Conferences. In fact, the Titan Two have snubbed their noses at Project Rudy and a bunch of other attempts by leaders of the Big XII, ACC, and Pac-Whatever to realign FBS football.
Quite honestly, you can't blame them. If you look at any Top 10 list of the College Football Elite, they're virtually all B1G or SEC teams. Categories like All-Time Wins, Bowl Game Appearances, National Championships, Conference Titles, NFL Draft Picks, and Heisman Winners are all dominated by a handful of teams: Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, USC, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas, Alabama, Tennessee, and so on. The B1G+SEC represent an embarrassment of riches. In fact, if you go back to 1990, just eight national titles have been won by teams currently outside the B1G+SEC. And no surprise, those four teams -- Notre Dame, Florida State, Miami, and Clemson -- are the other NCAA powerhouses not currently in the B1G or SEC.
With that being said, it seems rather likely that at some point, the B1G and SEC will grab the Four Horsemen and a few other teams before cutting ties with the rest of FBS and forming their own AAA Minor League. We know TV executives are interested in selling a top-tier product, and that does not include games like Duke-Wake Forest or Kansas-Baylor.
This post is my attempt at projecting what a new world of Top Tier college football will look like.
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The first question to solve is the number of teams. Combined, the B1G (18) and SEC (16) have 34 teams. There have been projections and mappings that show 60, 72, 84, or 100 teams, but I'm drawing a hard line at 40. That's it. Why not 56, 60, 72, or some other multiple of 4 or 6 that divides cleanly into conferences and divisions? Well, to be honest, it's a quality control issue. The Four Horsemen are shoo-ins. How do you pass up FSU or Notre Dame? But once you get past those teams, you've really delved into the squishy middle of teams like Pitt, WVU, Stanford, TCU, and a bunch of good-but-not-elite teams. Adding 12 more "good-ish" teams really does nothing for the Super League. There's no extra value to be derived from glomming on Boston College or Oklahoma State. In fact, the final two teams really don't bring a ton of financial value to the table - they mostly just help even out divisions.
So who ARE the final two teams? Colorado and North Carolina.
But what about Pitt? Isn't Virginia Tech a better team than Vanderbilt or Northwestern? Yep. They totally are. But like it or not, the stark reality is that life is sometimes about luck. Mississippi State probably can't keep up with Stanford historically, but they had the good fortune to be in the SEC. Rutgers got into the B1G. And I don't see the B1G or SEC cutting teams.
But... Colorado? Tar Heels? Both are historically relevant, play on a similar historical level to the other contenders (Stanford, TCU), and they also bring a geographic balance to the Super League. Remember, this is about selling TV games to networks. Both teams have decent fanbases, tend to attract national audiences, and have established rivalries with other teams in the Super League.
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With teams settled, it's time to move onto divisions. In trying to model more closely to the NFL, the Super League will adopt a similar alignment of 8 divisions with 5 teams each. However, unlike the NFL, there will no longer be competing leagues (AFC/NFC) but rather a single league of 8 divisions. This helps preserve one of college football's best traditions - regional geography. Just look at how the Giants & Eagles - vs- Patriots & Bills play in two different conferences. In college, those teams would all play annually.
Without further ado, here is the alignment of teams:
These divisions preserve regional rivalries and are mostly balanced, competitively. One of the pitfalls most realignment projects tend to fall into is trying to tweak divisions, pods, or conferences so that they are balanced today. But football is cyclical. Yes, the Northeast Division looks loaded now - OSU, PSU, Michigan - but give it time and things change. The Atlantic Division looks a bit weaker - UK, NC, SC, Tenn, and Vandy - but after 15 years? One of those teams is going to rise up and consistently make the playoffs.
Is your biggest rival in another division? Notably, you may see Michigan and Michigan State separated, which feels like a crime. But don't worry, we're moving right into scheduling.
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Teams will play a 16 game schedule, spread over 18-20 weeks. Pushing the season back to start around Mid-August means that there are roughly 20 weeks until Christmas. The regular season will conclude before Christmas, giving players and coaches time for rest until the post-season starts in January.
The regular season will follow a 4-5-5-2 schedule, meaning that each team plays as follows:
Here's some examples to walk through the schedule:
Example A: Nebraska
At the conclusion of the regular season, postseason play begins by selecting the teams. 16 teams are seeded into a single-elimination style bracket, with the eight divisional champs taking seeds #1-8 and the remaining eight slots going to At-Large teams, regardless of division.
To help illustrate the concept, I'm leaning on current FBS rankings as of Nov 2024.
Teams begin playoffs in January, with four rounds of games until a National Champion is crowned. The first round games are held at the home stadium of the higher-ranked team. The 6 games of the quarterfinal and semifinals are held at the NYD6 Bowl locations - Rose, Orange, Fiesta, Sugar, Cotton, and Peach.
The bracket generates a LOT of compelling matchups. A first round rematch in the Hoosier State between Indiana and Notre Dame feels like a massive stakes game. Unranked Iowa representing the Heartland Division gets a massive challenge out of the gate when they host #3 Georgia (At-Large). Will the Bulldogs steamroll the Hawkeyes, or does a frosty Iowa City January make this another 7-6 Iowa punt-fest? If the Bulldogs prevail, there's a potential matchup with rival Clemson should the Tigers manage a first round upset in Eugene. And in the middle of the bracket there's a potential Horn-Aggie battle coming should the Texas teams win their opening round.
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So that's it. That's the concept.
I'm sure this will draw a lot of intrigue, and let's be frank - it's HuskerMax - so it'll draw a bunch of old timers yelling at the clouds about the Big 8. But CFB is about to evolve massively and I see this as a potential flavor of our sport that feels good. It feels watchable and gives a lot of preference to rival games, which this sport is built on.
-------------------------------------------
The inevitable B1G+SEC separation. It's becoming more and more clear that the B1G and SEC see themselves as a notch above the rest of the Power Conferences. In fact, the Titan Two have snubbed their noses at Project Rudy and a bunch of other attempts by leaders of the Big XII, ACC, and Pac-Whatever to realign FBS football.
Quite honestly, you can't blame them. If you look at any Top 10 list of the College Football Elite, they're virtually all B1G or SEC teams. Categories like All-Time Wins, Bowl Game Appearances, National Championships, Conference Titles, NFL Draft Picks, and Heisman Winners are all dominated by a handful of teams: Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, USC, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas, Alabama, Tennessee, and so on. The B1G+SEC represent an embarrassment of riches. In fact, if you go back to 1990, just eight national titles have been won by teams currently outside the B1G+SEC. And no surprise, those four teams -- Notre Dame, Florida State, Miami, and Clemson -- are the other NCAA powerhouses not currently in the B1G or SEC.
With that being said, it seems rather likely that at some point, the B1G and SEC will grab the Four Horsemen and a few other teams before cutting ties with the rest of FBS and forming their own AAA Minor League. We know TV executives are interested in selling a top-tier product, and that does not include games like Duke-Wake Forest or Kansas-Baylor.
This post is my attempt at projecting what a new world of Top Tier college football will look like.
-------------------------------------------
The first question to solve is the number of teams. Combined, the B1G (18) and SEC (16) have 34 teams. There have been projections and mappings that show 60, 72, 84, or 100 teams, but I'm drawing a hard line at 40. That's it. Why not 56, 60, 72, or some other multiple of 4 or 6 that divides cleanly into conferences and divisions? Well, to be honest, it's a quality control issue. The Four Horsemen are shoo-ins. How do you pass up FSU or Notre Dame? But once you get past those teams, you've really delved into the squishy middle of teams like Pitt, WVU, Stanford, TCU, and a bunch of good-but-not-elite teams. Adding 12 more "good-ish" teams really does nothing for the Super League. There's no extra value to be derived from glomming on Boston College or Oklahoma State. In fact, the final two teams really don't bring a ton of financial value to the table - they mostly just help even out divisions.
So who ARE the final two teams? Colorado and North Carolina.
But what about Pitt? Isn't Virginia Tech a better team than Vanderbilt or Northwestern? Yep. They totally are. But like it or not, the stark reality is that life is sometimes about luck. Mississippi State probably can't keep up with Stanford historically, but they had the good fortune to be in the SEC. Rutgers got into the B1G. And I don't see the B1G or SEC cutting teams.
But... Colorado? Tar Heels? Both are historically relevant, play on a similar historical level to the other contenders (Stanford, TCU), and they also bring a geographic balance to the Super League. Remember, this is about selling TV games to networks. Both teams have decent fanbases, tend to attract national audiences, and have established rivalries with other teams in the Super League.
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With teams settled, it's time to move onto divisions. In trying to model more closely to the NFL, the Super League will adopt a similar alignment of 8 divisions with 5 teams each. However, unlike the NFL, there will no longer be competing leagues (AFC/NFC) but rather a single league of 8 divisions. This helps preserve one of college football's best traditions - regional geography. Just look at how the Giants & Eagles - vs- Patriots & Bills play in two different conferences. In college, those teams would all play annually.
Without further ado, here is the alignment of teams:
These divisions preserve regional rivalries and are mostly balanced, competitively. One of the pitfalls most realignment projects tend to fall into is trying to tweak divisions, pods, or conferences so that they are balanced today. But football is cyclical. Yes, the Northeast Division looks loaded now - OSU, PSU, Michigan - but give it time and things change. The Atlantic Division looks a bit weaker - UK, NC, SC, Tenn, and Vandy - but after 15 years? One of those teams is going to rise up and consistently make the playoffs.
Is your biggest rival in another division? Notably, you may see Michigan and Michigan State separated, which feels like a crime. But don't worry, we're moving right into scheduling.
-------------------------------------------
Teams will play a 16 game schedule, spread over 18-20 weeks. Pushing the season back to start around Mid-August means that there are roughly 20 weeks until Christmas. The regular season will conclude before Christmas, giving players and coaches time for rest until the post-season starts in January.
The regular season will follow a 4-5-5-2 schedule, meaning that each team plays as follows:
- The 4 other teams in their Home Division
- 5 teams from "Division A"
- 5 teams from "Division B"
- 2 more rivals or other teams
- Year 1: Division A and Division B
- Year 2: Division B and Division C
- Year 3: Division C and Division D
- Year 4: Division D and Division E
Here's some examples to walk through the schedule:
Example A: Nebraska
- Nebraska competes in the Heartland Division, and so they play Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Northwestern annually.
- This year, the Heartland Division has drawn the Gulf Coast Division, so they will play Ole Miss, Miss State, Alabama, Auburn, and LSU. Next year the Gulf Coast Division will rotate off the schedule and be replaced with the Pacific Division.
- This year, the Heartland Division has also drawn the Northeast Division, so they will play Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Maryland, and Rutgers. Next year, the Northeast Division will remain on the schedule and games will occur at the other team's stadium.
- Nebraska fills out their schedule with games against Colorado and Oklahoma. Next year, when the Pacific Division is on the schedule, Nebraska will play Colorado in divisional play. This schedule slot can be used to schedule another team such as Mizzou, Texas, or Notre Dame.
- MSU competes in the Central Division, and so they play Notre Dame, Indiana, Purdue, and Illinois annually.
- This year, the Central Division has drawn the Pacific Division, so they will play Washington, Oregon, Colorado, UCLA, and USC. Next year the Pacific Division will rotate off the schedule and be replaced with the Southwest Division.
- This year, the Central Division has also drawn the Southeast Division, so they will play FSU, Florida, Miami, Clemson and Georgia. Next year, the Southeast Division will remain on the schedule and games will occur at the other team's stadium.
- MSU fills out their schedule with games against Michigan and Penn State. Next year, the Northeastern Division is not on the schedule, so they keep both Michigan and Penn State scheduled as rivals.
- Alabama competes in the Gulf Coast and so they play Ole Miss, Miss State, Auburn, and LSU annually.
- This year, the Gulf Coast Division has drawn the Northeast Division, so they will play Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Maryland, and Rutgers. Next year the Northeast Division will rotate off the schedule and be replaced with the Central Division.
- This year, the Gulf Coast Division has also drawn the Pacific Division, so they will play Washington, Oregon, Colorado, UCLA, and USC. Next year, the Pacific Division will remain on the schedule and games will occur at the other team's stadium.
- Alabama fills out their schedule with games against Tennessee and Florida. Next year, neither the Southeast Division or Atlantic Division is on the schedule, so they opt to keep both Tennessee and Florida on the schedule as rivals.
At the conclusion of the regular season, postseason play begins by selecting the teams. 16 teams are seeded into a single-elimination style bracket, with the eight divisional champs taking seeds #1-8 and the remaining eight slots going to At-Large teams, regardless of division.
To help illustrate the concept, I'm leaning on current FBS rankings as of Nov 2024.
Teams begin playoffs in January, with four rounds of games until a National Champion is crowned. The first round games are held at the home stadium of the higher-ranked team. The 6 games of the quarterfinal and semifinals are held at the NYD6 Bowl locations - Rose, Orange, Fiesta, Sugar, Cotton, and Peach.
The bracket generates a LOT of compelling matchups. A first round rematch in the Hoosier State between Indiana and Notre Dame feels like a massive stakes game. Unranked Iowa representing the Heartland Division gets a massive challenge out of the gate when they host #3 Georgia (At-Large). Will the Bulldogs steamroll the Hawkeyes, or does a frosty Iowa City January make this another 7-6 Iowa punt-fest? If the Bulldogs prevail, there's a potential matchup with rival Clemson should the Tigers manage a first round upset in Eugene. And in the middle of the bracket there's a potential Horn-Aggie battle coming should the Texas teams win their opening round.
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So that's it. That's the concept.
I'm sure this will draw a lot of intrigue, and let's be frank - it's HuskerMax - so it'll draw a bunch of old timers yelling at the clouds about the Big 8. But CFB is about to evolve massively and I see this as a potential flavor of our sport that feels good. It feels watchable and gives a lot of preference to rival games, which this sport is built on.
