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Coronavirus Status Updates

According to the Nebraska website the "cases" are positive "tests".

So, it would appear that if an individual tested positive more than once it would be included as more than one positive "case".

But as with all of this Covid, there is no definition of "case" or "test" on the website that I can find. :)

This is what I've been thinking. So it's possible 21,717 positive cases or tests in Nebraska, may mean only 10,000 people actually had or have the virus.

Which then means the positive percentage may be way off.

You test 3 negative people, and one positive person 3 times, and you end up with a 50% positive rate when it should be 25%.
 
It looks likd Palm Beach County schools may start out with online learning. My wife has had COVID for three weeks. Body aches, fatigue, loss of appetite and sore throat. Glad she doesn’t have the severe symptoms. Looks like this week is much better for her. So far I have tested negative and the kids are ok. When she started out with the sore throat she immediately quarantined. She also has been wearing a mask around home as well. Kids have had to put up with some of my cooking.
 
None of these places have the case rates we have, nor the focus on individual rights versus social responsibility that we have here. I do not know what the risk is here, but using other countries as models when our country has continually been an outlier seems overly optimistic to me, especially given that increased testing is not behind the rise we are seeing right now. You claim it is less risky for teachers to be working now than other essential workers, based on what? Many changes in work place practices have occurred to protect other essential workers; I am working every day and masks are mandatory, there are no f2f meetings, we are tested every week, all air is single pass, there is no recirculated air in the facility and 90% of the staff works from home. I also believe children are at higher risk for becoming infected than someone getting hit by lightning. The odds of being struck by lightning in a given year is ~1/1,222,000.

Much in the article below and others I've read support much of what you say, but as they point out data is scarce and it is situation dependent. What I have seen proposed for some schools has been essentially nothing - no masks, no social distancing between students, no barriers, and we in no way have the virus under any sort of control. I just think there is a lot more risk than you are giving credit for if for no other reason than the scarcity of data.


None of those places tested as much as we did (some small countries did, but we're leading all big countries now on a per capita testing basis). We're catching cases that have ALWAYS existed in the outbreaks, but have not been caught due to more pressing concerns.

If you block out NY (complete and utter ineptitude in their response) our case fatality rate is quite good, particularly given that we had a about 50K people who survived the last 2 flu seasons who wouldn't normally have survived. In particular our fatalities look even better when we look at all cause deaths as a factor of the actuarial expectations - as a country we're at 105 (100 is the expected norm) and most states outside of the northeast are lower than expected.

NY would have had by far the highest testing numbers but they were only testing the people who were ending up in the hospital at that point. Japan deliberately avoided testing asymptomatic people because they knew a panic like this would cause more problems than it solved.

Even worse, evidence is coming out that a good part of the testing percentages is coming from facilities that aren't reporting negatives (see the Orlando Health System news, for instance)

Hospitalization rates continue to plummet as a ratio of cases (5.8% from a much, much higher rate in the NE - of course the hot spot states now aren't infecting nursing home residents deliberately either)

Sure the data's scarce, but as I said before IF teachers are essential (and I'm starting to doubt they are), they should be teaching if they don't have an underlying condition. As is, looking at the LA teachers demands, we'd probably be better off starting over completely
 



This is what I've been thinking. So it's possible 21,717 positive cases or tests in Nebraska, may mean only 10,000 people actually had or have the virus.

Which then means the positive percentage may be way off.

You test 3 negative people, and one positive person 3 times, and you end up with a 50% positive rate when it should be 25%.

I have read/heard on several occasions that the amount of infections from Covid-19 may be as high as 10-12 times more than the actual positive tests collected. So you are correct, the data is likely way off, but in both directions.

All 330 million people in the country will certainly not get tested- but the virus won't care. I can remember reading months ago someone predicting 40-60% of the population would get it at some point, not sure how that number was arrived at but that is a lot of people if it happens. Even if the "true" infection number is ten times the confirmed cases, that is roughly 30-35 million which would be about 10-12% of the population, far from 40-60% but still pretty high.
 
I have read/heard on several occasions that the amount of infections from Covid-19 may be as high as 10-12 times more than the actual positive tests collected. So you are correct, the data is likely way off, but in both directions.

All 330 million people in the country will certainly not get tested- but the virus won't care. I can remember reading months ago someone predicting 40-60% of the population would get it at some point, not sure how that number was arrived at but that is a lot of people if it happens. Even if the "true" infection number is ten times the confirmed cases, that is roughly 30-35 million which would be about 10-12% of the population, far from 40-60% but still pretty high.

Good points. We really don't know just how big the denominator really is in this case. It's definitely much higher than earlier testing could have shown and is likely much higher than even the testing we are doing know can reflect accurately.

But, there is also a question of just how many people are susceptible to it. I see a lot of math working off of the idea that every one of our 330 million get it and then this many people will die.

Yet, even in the worst case scenarios we haven't seen that kind of infection rates. My guess has been that it's going to hit and infect somewhere around 20-25% of the population with many of them not knowing it (and depending on the intensity/duration of the exposure). I suspect that some of that has to do with this:

 



It looks likd Palm Beach County schools may start out with online learning. My wife has had COVID for three weeks. Body aches, fatigue, loss of appetite and sore throat. Glad she doesn’t have the severe symptoms. Looks like this week is much better for her. So far I have tested negative and the kids are ok. When she started out with the sore throat she immediately quarantined. She also has been wearing a mask around home as well. Kids have had to put up with some of my cooking.

I am sorry to here about your wife. Hang in there. She is in our prayers
 




This is pretty good news, and if I'm not mistaken, jives with how the Moderna vaccine is supposed to promote a response:


summary: T-cell response from COVID-SARS (aka SARS) still active 17 years later, and of some use against SARS CoV2. This is different from antibody response, which does fall off pretty quickly.
 
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