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Coronavirus Status Updates

HuskerSuperGenius

Recruit
5 Year Member
CDC updates their guidelines about spread of Covid via "droplets.

Now believe that spread is by aerosolized small particles rather than large droplets, making masks used by public valueless since they cannot stop this aerosols or the even smaller virus itself.

Further more, the aerosols have been found to travel more than six feet, making "social distancing" an ineffective practice as well.

Now back to our regularly scheduled programing where we were living our lives normally.......:)

 

Nehunter88

Red Shirt
5 Year Member
If you didn’t count the infection, you missed the death. So how would you be able to calculate the IFR? You can’t just add all the uncounted cases and ignore all the uncounted deaths. If anything, the estimated IFR should help inform you how many deaths were missed. You certainly don’t ignore all the missed deaths to calculate an artificially low IFR.

So you're saying our flu deaths are also much higher then reported each year?
 

BleedinHuskerRed

Red Shirt
5 Year Member
CDC updates their guidelines about spread of Covid via "droplets.

Now believe that spread is by aerosolized small particles rather than large droplets, making masks used by public valueless since they cannot stop this aerosols or the even smaller virus itself.

Further more, the aerosols have been found to travel more than six feet, making "social distancing" an ineffective practice as well.

Now back to our regularly scheduled programing where we were living our lives normally.......:)

Not unsurprising, though the article stresses the importance of masks:

“A full endorsement of airborne transmission would likely call for more stringent precautions for reopening businesses and schools, health and ventilation experts say. Everyone would need to wear masks, crowd sizes would have to be small and many buildings would require better ventilation systems, according to the experts.”

“[The CDC] also advised wearing a mask, saying it helps reduce the risk of spread both by close contact and airborne transmission.”

Bottom line: The prevention procedures remain the same. Ventilation is key, avoid large groups, wash your hands, wear a mask.
 

nems

Wubba Lubba Dub Dub
15 Year Member
So you're saying our flu deaths are also much higher then reported each year?
I guess it depends on what you mean by reported. The number of flu deaths I see referenced the most is usually an estimated range of deaths, which is far higher than those actually labeled flu death in the CDC and the NHSN.
 

Nehunter88

Red Shirt
5 Year Member
I guess it depends on what you mean by reported. The number of flu deaths I see referenced the most is usually an estimated range of deaths, which is far higher than those actually labeled flu death in the CDC and the NHSN.

So all this talk about comparing or not comparing Covid to the flu has some merit. If flu deaths are just an estimate, just like flu cases are just an estimate, it doesn't make a lot of sense to compare to estimates.
 

Huskerwisdom

Red Shirt
I guess it depends on what you mean by reported. The number of flu deaths I see referenced the most is usually an estimated range of deaths, which is far higher than those actually labeled flu death in the CDC and the NHSN.
Exactly. Flu testing is somewhat limited and estimates are used to come up with numbers for prevalence and for deaths.

What's very true is that we've pretty much never in history counted the toll of a disease in the way in which we are counting Covid deaths, and counting the Flu deaths in the same way we are counting Covid deaths would raise the numbers for Flu deaths pretty dramatically.
 
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Robago

Recruit

Article summary: Meta Study is released in May 2020, found on CDC, about the flu and preventive measures; Hand Hygiene, Respiratory Etiquette, Face Masks, Surface and object cleaning. For each they found no evidence in studies to support the idea that each one could reduce Influenza transmission. Example, Face Masks, "Our systemic review found no significant effect of face masks on transmission of laboratory-confirmed influenza." Hand Hygiene seems to effective for some diarrhea and respiratory illness.

1. My questions, if these are not effective for flu virus, droplet precautions why all the sudden do they apply to coronavirus (airborne)?

2. So maybe hand hygiene is a good idea?

3. The only meta study I could find that had significant reduction of flu was closing schools/business. The best study was 24% reduction in overall cases. The others were as low as 6%. I can't find the study or I would link it. So the question I have is at best we reduce cases from a lockdown by 25% which is good. But at worst 6%, Is that 6% worth it to lockdown, mask, social distance, close business, keep kids out of school?
 

Robago

Recruit
@BleedinHuskerRed
It seems to stand to reason that everyone would need an Niosh approved N95 or higher for them to be effective. Not regular masks. See below for airborne precautions. In addition people would need to wear face shields if in vicinity of 15 feet, anyone with Covid and they were to cough.
Does this seem reasonable?

Also as I pointed to in the previous post, the CDC, has a metastudy that says that masks don't reduce the flu incidence, so how could they slow an aerosol/airborne pathogen?

[/QUOTE]
 
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Huskerpilk

Junior Varsity
10 Year Member
If you didn’t count the infection, you missed the death. So how would you be able to calculate the IFR? You can’t just add all the uncounted cases and ignore all the uncounted deaths. If anything, the estimated IFR should help inform you how many deaths were missed. You certainly don’t ignore all the missed deaths to calculate an artificially low IFR.
There's not a direct correlation between unconfirmed Covid cases and unconfirmed Covid deaths if that's what you're saying.
Deaths are easy to track...there's a dead person on the stretcher. They get tested when they get sick. Probably very few just die out in public without someone attempting to get them help. There will be some deaths from Covid not attributed to covid but some of those will be offset by the aggressive efforts to tie Covid to any death in at risk patients.

Now.....millions and millions have contracted Covid-19 and been symptomatic or mildly symptomatic and never sought care to get tested. The WHO estimates are based on antibody/antigen testing that indicates a previous infection. They extrapolate that to the general population and determine the approximate number of infections world wide. The point is this....its not as deadly (although it is deadly) as the deaths/confirmed cases indicate. And that the number we're fed day in day out. Not trying to downplay the risk to the at risk, but the risk to the normal population for death is near zero based on the WHO announcement. Just over 1 million deaths to date.

1,000,000/76000000 = .00013 X 100 = 0.13% mortality. Not the 3 percent we've been hearing. Now if you remove the older population from the equation from the population (50% of all deaths are 75 and older and 65% of all deaths are 85 and older even though those groups represent a small percentage of the population.) Mortality rate goes to almost zero for those not in a high risk category.
 

nems

Wubba Lubba Dub Dub
15 Year Member
There's not a direct correlation between unconfirmed Covid cases and unconfirmed Covid deaths if that's what you're saying.
Deaths are easy to track...there's a dead person on the stretcher. They get tested when they get sick. Probably very few just die out in public without someone attempting to get them help. There will be some deaths from Covid not attributed to covid but some of those will be offset by the aggressive efforts to tie Covid to any death in at risk patients.

Now.....millions and millions have contracted Covid-19 and been symptomatic or mildly symptomatic and never sought care to get tested. The WHO estimates are based on antibody/antigen testing that indicates a previous infection. They extrapolate that to the general population and determine the approximate number of infections world wide. The point is this....its not as deadly (although it is deadly) as the deaths/confirmed cases indicate. And that the number we're fed day in day out. Not trying to downplay the risk to the at risk, but the risk to the normal population for death is near zero based on the WHO announcement. Just over 1 million deaths to date.

1,000,000/76000000 = .00013 X 100 = 0.13% mortality. Not the 3 percent we've been hearing. Now if you remove the older population from the equation from the population (50% of all deaths are 75 and older and 65% of all deaths are 85 and older even though those groups represent a small percentage of the population.) Mortality rate goes to almost zero for those not in a high risk category.
Sure ... Now. But what about at the beginning of the pandemic when testing was basically non-existent? It took a solid 5 months into the pandemic to reach a somewhat acceptable testing level in the US, and we still don't know when it actually arrived and how many people were dying in Jan - March from something we didn't understand at all. Then, how many COVID deaths were missed in the early days when we had minimal testing? Take that worldwide, especially in the 3rd world, not even close to any reasonable testing level exists. There's been hundreds of thousands if not more than a million missed COVID deaths worldwide at this point.

And what 3% are you talking about? The estimated IFR has been at .3% for quite awhile now.

Regardless, counting the actual dead, and using an estimated number for cases isn't very reasonable. That's fairly obvious.
 

BleedinHuskerRed

Red Shirt
5 Year Member
@BleedinHuskerRed
It seems to stand to reason that everyone would need an Niosh approved N95 or higher for them to be effective. Not regular masks. See below for airborne precautions. In addition people would need to wear face shields if in vicinity of 15 feet, anyone with Covid and they were to cough.
Does this seem reasonable?

Also as I pointed to in the previous post, the CDC, has a metastudy that says that masks don't reduce the flu incidence, so how could they slow an aerosol/airborne pathogen?

Honestly, I don’t understand how. Maybe because at least the large droplets are stopped?

But I do know there is ample evidence to indicate that they do. Dr. Rob Zatrchka said the same in one of his recent podcasts.

https://health.clevelandclinic.org/...idence-that-masks-prevent-coronavirus-spread/
 
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The Nth Degree

Scout Team
15 Year Member
I just saw that the NFL is really going to clamp down (i.e. 15 yard penalty, suspension, lose draft picks, etc.) on coaches that do not follow mask protocol. Example: Coaches not wearing their masks properly while talking/yelling at officials.

I’ve seen several college games where the coaches are not following mask protocol in the same manner. It will be interesting to see how (or if) the NCAA approaches this issue.
 
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HuskerWeatherman

Feral Cat
20 Year Member

LONDON — The virus responsible for Covid-19 can survive for up to 28 days on surfaces such as glass, steel, vinyl, paper and polymer banknotes, Australian researchers said on Monday, reinforcing the importance of effective cleaning and handwashing to curb the spread of the disease.

The findings from Australia’s national science agency, the CSIRO, appeared to show that SARS-CoV-2 can survive on surfaces for significantly longer than many had anticipated.

The study, which was peer reviewed, also found the virus responsible for the Covid-19 disease was “extremely robust” at lower temperatures, remaining infectious for a longer period when compared to higher temperatures.

The coronavirus is mostly spread from person to person via small droplets from the nose or mouth, which are expelled when an infected person coughs, sneezes or speaks.

However, the World Health Organization has also said it is possible to become infected when these droplets land on objects and surfaces, as people touching these surfaces may then touch their eyes, nose or mouth.
 
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