Coronavirus Status Updates

[Chi-Town Cube]

If you have a moment...
You mentioned that we're generally not testing people with mild symptoms. Of those actually being tested, how many are you seeing that come back positive? I saw something today that said only around 5% of tests in Nebraska are coming back positive. Are you seeing similar rates?

I honestly am not sure. Overall it is low. I’m not sure how to interpret it. I think part of it is that we have a low threshold to test everyone because this spreads like wildfire through a hospital. We will start testing anyone who needs a procedure. Have chest pain in the ER, but coughing? Test em. Healthcare worker with a stuffy nose? Test em. We know from Italy that in hospital spread devastated patients and staff.

 

[Nehunter88]

I saw some numbers that I thought shows how our early social distancing, and shutting down flights from China might be helping.

The US with an estimated population of 330 million was compared to the 336 million combined estimated population of Germany (81 million), France (66 million), the United Kingdom (65 million), Italy (61 million), Spain (46 million) and the Netherlands (17 million).

The US has as of mid-day Tuesday has about 165,000 cases and 3,186 deaths.

The six most populous nations in Western Europe have about 345,000 cases and 26,394 deaths.

 

[Chi-Town Cube]

The US with an estimated population of 330 million was compared to the 336 million combined estimated population of Germany (81 million), France (66 million), the United Kingdom (65 million), Italy (61 million), Spain (46 million) and the Netherlands (17 million).

The US has as of mid-day Tuesday has about 165,000 cases and 3,186 deaths.

The six most populous nations in Western Europe have about 345,000 cases and 26,394 deaths.

It pains me to say this, but give it time. We are increasing by 20-25K cases and will be over 1000 deaths per day by Saturday, I think.

this infection is a bag of dicks

 

[Nehunter88]

It pains me to say this, but give it time. We are increasing by 20-25K cases and will be over 1000 deaths per day by Saturday, I think.

this infection is a bag of dicks

I agree it's going to get rough, hopefully not as rough as over there, but I guess time will tell on that one.

 

[HUSKER HOT SAUCE]

View attachment 40795

Looks like Chicago in a good year.

 

[RedStones]

the death numbers are going to look a lot worse. a number of the people currently diagnosed and alive are going to die. Probably 30-70% of the current critical cases

My hospital feels like Winterfell awaiting their arrival of the Night King. Sorry if you don’t get the reference.

I have colleagues in Michigan and New York and New Orleans and the stories are unbelievable. New York and Michigan are begging doctors and nurses to come. You can get a license overnight. Unless they are locums or retired, I don’t know how that will work. We are all gearing up for our own fight.

It’s like a tsunami. You empty the hospital and it starts slowly. A few here and there. It’s quiet. No big deal. Then more. And more. And more. Now you have no open rooms and they still come so you cram them into empty ORs and conference rooms. And still more. And you start partitioning space with garbage bags To crest space. You are running out of ventilators and you try to share them and use the anesthesia machines. And they still come. Refrigerator trucks park outside because the hospital morgue is full. You beg other hospitals to help but they are all the same. And now providers are dropping like flies. Most get sent to quaratine. Some get intubated and put on the vent. And more come. Now the army is trying to find space for a field hospital.

this is what is happening in New York. There are no diagnoses but COVID. Specialties are no longer relevant. They are all COVID docs and nurses. Next man and woman up.

I don’t think it will be like this everywhere. I think Nebraska might get spared a horrible surge, but I do wonder what happens then. Does it just come in the summer or fall? I look at the numbers with dread. Aside from Washington state, there isn’t much optimism to see. Chicago, Atlanta, Miami, Boston, Indianapolis, and on and on and on. The case rate is in exponential growth. I hear the stress in voices. I see the change in social media poss from “not bad yet” to “its pretty bad” to “god help us”

anyway, right now for me, it’s quiet. I still have some hope that our social distancing will blunt the surge. The scary thing is a month ago, we were all saying that.

I don't even know how to respond. I gave it a WOW because there wasn't a CRY emoji.

I can't even imagine.... I moved back to central Nebraska late last year near Kearney. Until the last 7 days there wasn't much around here. Now we have several with more being announced every day.

On a disturbing note I was reading about a guy who's grand parents and mother are all infected in Kearney. The mother was told she "probably" was infected but they didn't test her. Instead they told her to go home. They told her "Don't tell anyone", and self quarantine. WTH. If that is true, that's just horribly stupid and terrifying. If that's true (have to be skeptical about what's posted online) but if that's true the number of infected around here is going to be way higher than what's reported. They tested his grand mother and confirmed she was positive and put her in quarantine. But they didn't test the grandfather who had the same symptoms and after 3 days they were going to release him until the family objected. It just makes me shake my head.

 

[RedStones]

Looks like Chicago in a good year.

Sadly true.

 

[husker6]

I'm a maudlin SOB. I was just perusing some CV data and using a calculator (don't do that):

Totals for the US

Daily totals for all metrics collected from January 2020 to the present.

covidtracking.com

Date	States & Territories	Positive	Negative	Pending	Hospitalized	Deaths	Total test results Positive + Negative
31 Mar 2020 Tue	56	184,770	864,201	59,529	26,660	3,746	1,048,971

The hospitalizations are running 14.4% of positive tests. Just over 2% for deaths.

Watch the number hospitalized. That's our key number. It's more than quadrupled in the last week in the US.

 

[RedStones]

Looking at the trend so far, the death rate in the US is doubling approximately every 3 days. If that holds true we're looking at approximately 125,000 deaths by April 15th. If that trend continues unabated, which I'm sorry but I can't believe, that would be 250,000 just 3 days later and 500,000 just 3 days after that. Those are crazy obscene numbers that I just can't fathom. Maybe I have my head in the sand but I don't believe we'll come anywhere close to that. If we do.............

 

[gardenjam]

Looking at the trend so far, the death rate in the US is doubling approximately every 3 days. If that holds true we're looking at approximately 125,000 deaths by April 15th. If that trend continues unabated, which I'm sorry but I can't believe, that would be 250,000 just 3 days later and 500,000 just 3 days after that. Those are crazy obscene numbers that I just can't fathom. Maybe I have my head in the sand but I don't believe we'll come anywhere close to that. If we do.............

View attachment 40849

....and what makes us think it's going to go away soon? What makes us think it won't get worse in the fall like the Spanish flu and continue for over another year?

 

[gardenjam]

I saw some numbers that I thought shows how our early social distancing, and shutting down flights from China might be helping.

The US with an estimated population of 330 million was compared to the 336 million combined estimated population of Germany (81 million), France (66 million), the United Kingdom (65 million), Italy (61 million), Spain (46 million) and the Netherlands (17 million).

The US has as of mid-day Tuesday has about 165,000 cases and 3,186 deaths.

The six most populous nations in Western Europe have about 345,000 cases and 26,394 deaths.

Are they comparing timelines as well?

 

[RedStones]

....and what makes us think it's going to go away soon? What makes us think it won't get worse in the fall like the Spanish flu and continue for over another year?

I'm no expert. I'm just making some assumptions based on the data. But if the death rate continues doubling every 3 days then by fall we'll be extinct. I don't believe that will happen. It's more likely to peak, level, and begin falling at some point in the near future. I also don't expect it to go away until there is a vaccine and even then maybe it will never go away and instead become an annual event like the flu.

 

[gardenjam]

I'm no expert. I'm just making some assumptions based on the data. But if the death rate continues doubling every 3 days then by fall we'll be extinct. I don't believe that will happen. It's more likely to peak, level, and begin falling at some point in the near future. I also don't expect it to go away until there is a vaccine and even then maybe it will never go away and instead become an annual event like the flu.

People really need to take stay in place seriously.

 

[BleedinHuskerRed]

This will give you state by state testing numbers. What would also be interesting to see is the deaths broken out by preexisting conditions vs none. I've seen some state numbers here and there but nothing cumulative. I get the feeling we may be overstating age and understating the health conditions that happen to come with age. Just like obesity, it's not the obesity but the health conditions that tend to come along for the ride.

The Data

Our most up-to-date data on COVID-19 in the US.

covidtracking.com

I have heard from 1 Denver hospital that as of last weekend, 20% of the people they tested were positive - a significant increase from what they had been seeing. But, this website is much better than that anecdote.

Something a friend of mine who follows the JAMA articles told me today: Type 2 diabetes (caused by obesity) may be a much bigger factor than originally thought, and could also explain why so many people below 60 are being hospitalized.

 

[CrabHusker]

People really need to take stay in place seriously.

I hear you, but I'm in one of the 'Essential' businesses and I'm amazed at how many people are still out and about and operating like it's a normal day.

I have no doubt the 'Stay in place' plan will slow and/or limit the transfer, but when you've still got a very, very large part of the population out.....and them coming home....it's going to keep going.