Coronavirus Status Updates

[David3464]

Although the infection rate is increasing, as expected, the death rate isn’t as a percentage of that. In that regard, the treatment of the Zpac and Anti-malaria drug mentioned by POTUS is working for most patients that take it, which is encouraging. I can’t believe that some state Governors won’t allow it because POTUS touted it as a possible treatment that’s working. If I had the virus, I would insist on getting it.
I’m of the opinion that unless there is an actual vaccine by Aug, football will not be played, pro or college. Just too risky to players and stadiums (no way do they play in empty stadiums) and doubtful that colleges would even resume in class on campuses.
At the same time, people should be allowed to work And go about their lives with added precautions and measures in place (social distancing, monitoring temperatures, etc...). If everyone is self monitoring or gets their temperature at someplace, wears a mask, etc...we need the world to continue its business. There was never this kind of reaction to any other recent disease like swine Flu, and it killed more people in its run so far. Why such a panicked reaction to this?

 

[lincoln84]

I don’t think as a hospitalized patient you can demand what medications you are administered. You can decline, but not direct. And I agree, no vaccine, no football. They have already said no vaccine in 2020.

 

[Red Dead Redemption]

 

[Chi-Town Cube]

Although the infection rate is increasing, as expected, the death rate isn’t as a percentage of that. In that regard, the treatment of the Zpac and Anti-malaria drug mentioned by POTUS is working for most patients that take it, which is encouraging. I can’t believe that some state Governors won’t allow it because POTUS touted it as a possible treatment that’s working. If I had the virus, I would insist on getting it.
I’m of the opinion that unless there is an actual vaccine by Aug, football will not be played, pro or college. Just too risky to players and stadiums (no way do they play in empty stadiums) and doubtful that colleges would even resume in class on campuses.
At the same time, people should be allowed to work And go about their lives with added precautions and measures in place (social distancing, monitoring temperatures, etc...). If everyone is self monitoring or gets their temperature at someplace, wears a mask, etc...we need the world to continue its business. There was never this kind of reaction to any other recent disease like swine Flu, and it killed more people in its run so far. Why such a panicked reaction to this?

First give the death rate time before making proclaimations. The vast majority don’t die with 24 hours of hospitalization. Our death rate is doubling every 2.5 days right now. I would expect by the end of next week that our total deaths will be around 10000 and our deaths per day will be between 1000-2000 per day. No fancy science there. Just following our current pattern.

the hydroxychloroquine story is far from known. it has not been used in a clinical trial. Further data submitted yesterday suggests that it doesn’t impact clinical outcomes. The hydroxychloroquine fad is based on anecdotes and one small study from what turns out to be an ethically questionable French researcher that demonstrated accelerated viral clearance in a study 20 (!) mildly infected people. We need more data On hydroxychloroquine, remdesevir, and other agents. It’s coming soon. In addition, there is some preliminary promise is using antibodies from survivors to treat people. 60 more days will give us some answers there.

not to burst anyone’s bubble but Ecuador and Brazil have big outbreaks. it really hurts the hope we might get a summer reprieve. It’s 90 degrees in Ecuador

the next 4-6 weeks are going to be bad. Many states, especially those with high population density and big airports have significant outbreaks. If Europe is any indication, we will see growth for several weeks and then hopefully see a decline.

On a positive note, Washington is hanging in there. The first hospital that was overrun reports open beds and ventilators. Their new case rate isn’t too bad right now.

On a personal note, I don’t need the media to bombard me with stories of healthy 40 years olds and medical professionals dying. I’m well aware of what’s going on. Sometimes ignorance is bliss.

 

[CrabHusker]

You're going to have to do a 'Mr. Wizard' episode on the word 'Exponential'.

 

[Nehunter88]

First give the death rate time before making proclaimations. The vast majority don’t die with 24 hours of hospitalization. Our death rate is doubling every 2.5 days right now. I would expect by the end of next week that our total deaths will be around 10000 and our deaths per day will be between 1000-2000 per day. No fancy science there. Just following our current pattern.

the hydroxychloroquine story is far from known. it has not been used in a clinical trial. Further data submitted yesterday suggests that it doesn’t impact clinical outcomes. The hydroxychloroquine fad is based on anecdotes and one small study from what turns out to be an ethically questionable French researcher that demonstrated accelerated viral clearance in a study 20 (!) mildly infected people. We need more data On hydroxychloroquine, remdesevir, and other agents. It’s coming soon. In addition, there is some preliminary promise is using antibodies from survivors to treat people. 60 more days will give us some answers there.

not to burst anyone’s bubble but Ecuador and Brazil have big outbreaks. it really hurts the hope we might get a summer reprieve. It’s 90 degrees in Ecuador

the next 4-6 weeks are going to be bad. Many states, especially those with high population density and big airports have significant outbreaks. If Europe is any indication, we will see growth for several weeks and then hopefully see a decline.

On a positive note, Washington is hanging in there. The first hospital that was overrun reports open beds and ventilators. Their new case rate isn’t too bad right now.

On a personal note, I don’t need the media to bombard me with stories of healthy 40 years olds and medical professionals dying. I’m well aware of what’s going on. Sometimes ignorance is bliss.

I don't think we'll ever see any numbers on this, but it would be interesting to see the death rate by geographic location.

Right now about half of the US deaths come from NY. Of course this is mainly because of so many cases in NY. But I wonder if the death rate will be higher where hospitals can't keep up because they've gone way above the curve, while the death rate may be much lower in areas where hospitals can keep up with the cases because they stayed below the curve.

I guess I've always felt social distancing and flattening the curve means a chance of better care in a hospital that is not overrun with patients, which means a better chance of survival for people that get the virus.

 

[Chi-Town Cube]

I don't think we'll ever see any numbers on this, but it would be interesting to see the death rate by geographic location.

Right now about half of the US deaths come from NY. Of course this is mainly because of so many cases in NY. But I wonder if the death rate will be higher where hospitals can't keep up because they've gone way above the curve, while the death rate may be much lower in areas where hospitals can keep up with the cases because they stayed below the curve.

I guess I've always felt social distancing and flattening the curve means a chance of better care in a hospital that is not overrun with patients, which means a better chance of survival for people that get the virus.

that’s exactly right. There is a finite number of providers and equipment. If you exceed that, we are forced to ration and that means those less likely to survive will not receive “optimal” care. It’s battlefield triage. Save those that have better chance.

of course, only after the fact, can we estimate the number of indirect preventable deaths from delayed diagnosis and treatment of other conditions during the epidemic

social distancing works to slow the epidemic to allow the healthcare system to keep up (hopefully)

unfortunately, it comes at significant economic consequences and does prolong the pandemic.

It’s just bad. Until we have a vaccine or effective medication, we are stuck with 1918-era tactics

 

[BleedinHuskerRed]

I don't think we'll ever see any numbers on this, but it would be interesting to see the death rate by geographic location.

Right now about half of the US deaths come from NY. Of course this is mainly because of so many cases in NY. But I wonder if the death rate will be higher where hospitals can't keep up because they've gone way above the curve, while the death rate may be much lower in areas where hospitals can keep up with the cases because they stayed below the curve.

I guess I've always felt social distancing and flattening the curve means a chance of better care in a hospital that is not overrun with patients, which means a better chance of survival for people that get the virus.

This, exactly. And, @David3464, this is why things are shutdown and people are being told to remain home. New Orleans insisted on having their Mardi Gras parade, and look at them. Brazil isn’t taking such actions, and their Minister of Health has said that he expects their hospitals to have completely broken down within the next 2 weeks.

 

[BleedinHuskerRed]

Although the infection rate is increasing, as expected, the death rate isn’t as a percentage of that. In that regard, the treatment of the Zpac and Anti-malaria drug mentioned by POTUS is working for most patients that take it, which is encouraging. I can’t believe that some state Governors won’t allow it because POTUS touted it as a possible treatment that’s working. If I had the virus, I would insist on getting it.
I’m of the opinion that unless there is an actual vaccine by Aug, football will not be played, pro or college. Just too risky to players and stadiums (no way do they play in empty stadiums) and doubtful that colleges would even resume in class on campuses.
At the same time, people should be allowed to work And go about their lives with added precautions and measures in place (social distancing, monitoring temperatures, etc...). If everyone is self monitoring or gets their temperature at someplace, wears a mask, etc...we need the world to continue its business. There was never this kind of reaction to any other recent disease like swine Flu, and it killed more people in its run so far. Why such a panicked reaction to this?

Just listened to an interview with one of the infectious disease docs ay UNMC about hydroxychloroquine. He said it’s been effective in vitro on a number of diseases besides malaria, but that efficacy hasn’t transferred to humans yet, and without knowing possible consequences of taking it for Covid, he recommended people wait for the outcomes of properly run clinical trials.

No vaccine until 2021 at the earliest. Hopefully a treatment in 2020, but no vaccine.

 

[gardenjam]

Although the infection rate is increasing, as expected, the death rate isn’t as a percentage of that. In that regard, the treatment of the Zpac and Anti-malaria drug mentioned by POTUS is working for most patients that take it, which is encouraging. I can’t believe that some state Governors won’t allow it because POTUS touted it as a possible treatment that’s working. If I had the virus, I would insist on getting it.
I’m of the opinion that unless there is an actual vaccine by Aug, football will not be played, pro or college. Just too risky to players and stadiums (no way do they play in empty stadiums) and doubtful that colleges would even resume in class on campuses.
At the same time, people should be allowed to work And go about their lives with added precautions and measures in place (social distancing, monitoring temperatures, etc...). If everyone is self monitoring or gets their temperature at someplace, wears a mask, etc...we need the world to continue its business. There was never this kind of reaction to any other recent disease like swine Flu, and it killed more people in its run so far. Why such a panicked reaction to this?

The coronavirus may be deadlier than the 1918 flu: Here's how it stacks up to other pandemics

www.google.com

 

[RedStones]

As of 07:30 03/28/20

 

[huskerndenver]

I wonder if the 'stay at home' order is working here in Colorado. We've been shut in here in Denver for about two weeks now. The full state order just happened this week. At one point we had the 5th most cases of any state. Now we are 13th. You have to wonder how long this will stretch out. It's surreal.

 

[gardenjam]

As of 07:30 03/28/20

View attachment 40625

Death rate continues to climb both nationally and overall. That's a disturbing trend.

 

[gardenjam]

New COVID-19 forecasts: US hospitals could be overwhelmed in the second week of April by demand for ICU beds, and US deaths could total 81,000 by July | The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

In a forecast based on new data analyses, researchers find demand for ventilators and beds in US hospital intensive care units (ICUs) will far exceed capacity for COVID-19 patients as early as the second week of April.

www.healthdata.org

"In a forecast based on new data analyses, researchers find demand for ventilators and beds in US hospital intensive care units (ICUs) will far exceed capacity for COVID-19 patients as early as the second week of April. Deaths related to the current wave of COVID-19 in the US are likely to persist into July, even assuming people protect themselves and their communities by strongly adhering to social distancing measures and by taking other precautions advised by public health officials."

 

[lincoln84]

I wonder if the 'stay at home' order is working here in Colorado. We've been shut in here in Denver for about two weeks now. The full state order just happened this week. At one point we had the 5th most cases of any state. Now we are 13th. You have to wonder how long this will stretch out. It's surreal.

If you look at Europe or Asia, you don’t have to wonder. It’s about a 4 month process, IF at some point early on, you do a complete shut down in cities. We haven’t done that. FLA still has full beaches this weekend. Fauci said we would not know for several weeks if the stay home thing worked or how well. Your success in Denver is likely reflective of lack of testing.