I think the real danger to the Big 12 is any further move toward "super-conferences". They have fewer teams than everyone else and their options for expansion are limited. They could attract a UCF or USF, but the rest of the connections that define a conference become even more tenuous. The other thing that could kill them is lack of competitiveness. I don't think TCU will be good once Patterson is gone. It's a conference in danger of being OU, Texas and the eight dwarfs. That makes them a conference that's more likely to be raided than to raid. It's not hard to imagine Texas trading Oklahoma State, Baylor and TCU for Cal, Stanford, UCLA and USC or Michigan, Ohio State, Northwestern and Wisconsin.
The claim of poor leadership was certainly true with Beebe, but I think Bowlsby has been pretty good for the conference. The real test will be the next time they have to renegotiate a media deal.
They have the third largest conference TV payoff deal after the B1G and the SEC. More than the PAC. I certainly see Arizona and Arizona State as a much better fit. Even Colorado, Utah, Utah State and BYU to go along with the UCF and USF. That brings in a lot of TV sets in Arizona Florida and the BYU market. They are already in West Virginia so pilfering other teams from the East Coast wouldn't be all that difficult.