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Composite 2019 Pre-Season Rankings

DuckTownHusker

Blackshirt Sith Lord
5 Year Member
---EDIT---

Updated May 20th to reflect Athlon rankings being released:


Notes - Nebraska has jumped 5 spots on the composite rankings due to favorable ratings by Athlon for the Huskers. Some teams ranked higher by other sources were also left unranked by Athlon, which lowered their composite score.

Again, this project is a work in progress and should be more reflective of a team's "true" ranking as we get closer to the season.


---CLOSE EDIT---

Below is a chart showing the available preseason rankings (so far). There are a zillion places that each write up their own preseason list, so the goal here is to merely capture some of the bigger and more reputable ranking systems out there. I'll try and update this list as new rankings are released.

A few notes:

The composite score is just a simple average across all sources. You can make an argument that ESPN might be better researched than SB Nation, but in theory, the law of averages works itself out the more sources you gain. If some dingbat ranks Clemson #19, it should average out as nearly every other source will have them ranked in the top three. Also, if I come across sources that are completely out of whack (Rice #1, etc), I'm inclined to just skip over them since they are obviously unrealistic.

The H/L/± colums show a team's Highest Ranking, their Lowest Ranking and the swing between their high/low. This is a critical piece to consider as it reveals which teams are question marks. For example, Georgia and Clemson have a swing of 2 because every single source has pegged them within 2 spots. Texas, on the other hand, has the biggest swing of any team (20 spots, from #6 to #26-Unranked), showing that the various list writers have little to no agreement on where to place them. In my mind, these are the teams to watch for 2019 because they'll either fall flat on their faces or produce 2019's dark horse teams.

If a team did not appear on an individual ranking list (Nebraska #17 by CBS, and unranked by FPI) they receive a #26 ranking. The logic here is that once you clear the Top 25, there's really not a lot of difference between #26 and #46. Frankly, there's not a lot of difference between #26 and #20, either, but we have to account for it some way. Conversely, leaving the space at a zero could actually improve a team's standing, as their average would be across fewer sources compared to other teams.


Onto the list!
 

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DuckTownHusker

Blackshirt Sith Lord
5 Year Member
Let's talk Big Ten West for a minute.

Nebraska and Northwestern are almost a dead-heat, while Wisconsin has a bigger swing. Minnesota and Iowa, however, both have smaller swings (3 or 4 spots) and are both ranked below Nebraska in the composite numbers. A quick glance makes me think that Wisconsin is the front runner for the division, but that both of the NUs are within striking distance. I expect Iowa and Minnesota to both be bowl teams, but unless there's some secret weapon in Iowa City or Minneapolis, I would expect them to finish middle of the pack.

Projections would likely say:

1. Wisconsin
t2. Nebraska-Northwestern
4. Iowa
5. Minnesota
t-6. Illinois & Purdue
 

Husker Country Doc

All American
15 Year Member
Are preseason ratings the author's estimate of where the team should START the season, or where they think teams will finish the season?
 

DuckTownHusker

Blackshirt Sith Lord
5 Year Member
Are preseason ratings the author's estimate of where the team should START the season, or where they think teams will finish the season?
That's actually a good distinction, and wasn't something I was intentionally looking for. The majority of sites I looked at were speaking about things like "way-too-early" predictions, etc., so I would assume these are preseason rankings.

Again, though, law of averages will probably make things shake out in the end.
 

DuckTownHusker

Blackshirt Sith Lord
5 Year Member
USA Today not showing any love for Penn State or Wisconsin. Wonder what that's all about?
I caught a minor error on that, actually. USA Today ranked Penn State #21, not #31. I fat-fingered the data. I'll correct it once I have more updates and future polls to add. That change will also cause Penn State and Auburn to flip spots on the Composite Rankings, but again, it's a minor fix.

To your point overall, though, USA Today is a bit bullish on both PSU and Wisky. I'm actually in that camp regarding the Badgers as I don't think they bring a lot back from 2018 other than their system of producing meatball O-Linemen. I'm not sure it will be enough to warrant a Top 15 ranking as some have projected though. They draw Michigan, Michigan State and Ohio State from the East, so I fully expect Wisconsin to drop a couple of ugly losses this year.
 

Pops

I have squandered my resistance
10 Year Member
Let's talk Big Ten West for a minute.

Nebraska and Northwestern are almost a dead-heat, while Wisconsin has a bigger swing. Minnesota and Iowa, however, both have smaller swings (3 or 4 spots) and are both ranked below Nebraska in the composite numbers. A quick glance makes me think that Wisconsin is the front runner for the division, but that both of the NUs are within striking distance. I expect Iowa and Minnesota to both be bowl teams, but unless there's some secret weapon in Iowa City or Minneapolis, I would expect them to finish middle of the pack.

Projections would likely say:

1. Wisconsin
t2. Nebraska-Northwestern
4. Iowa
5. Minnesota
t-6. Illinois & Purdue
1. Wisc
2. Iowa
3. Minnesota
4. NU
 

Sonny

Antediluvian Abrasiveness
15 Year Member
1. Wisc
2. Iowa
3. Minnesota
4. NU
Okay, I'll bite. What makes you think Nebraska will be worse than the team that beat Minnesota 53-28 last season? And what makes you think that Minnesota will be better than the team that got destroyed by Nebraska last season?
 

Pops

I have squandered my resistance
10 Year Member
Okay, I'll bite. What makes you think Nebraska will be worse than the team that beat Minnesota 53-28 last season? And what makes you think that Minnesota will be better than the team that got destroyed by Nebraska last season?
Their new Def Coord. in last what 2 games of the season they were very much improved so off season and spring they are talking that up. Where they may fall now is their off. They lost a few oars to row the boat
 

Pops

I have squandered my resistance
10 Year Member
Okay, I'll bite. What makes you think Nebraska will be worse than the team that beat Minnesota 53-28 last season? And what makes you think that Minnesota will be better than the team that got destroyed by Nebraska last season?
also only reason they won I was at the game but i’ll be in Mn this year so Neb just may do it. let’s call it the Popeffect
 

Lurker44

Recruit
Below is a chart showing the available preseason rankings (so far). There are a zillion places that each write up their own preseason list, so the goal here is to merely capture some of the bigger and more reputable ranking systems out there. I'll try and update this list as new rankings are released.

A few notes:

The composite score is just a simple average across all sources. You can make an argument that ESPN might be better researched than SB Nation, but in theory, the law of averages works itself out the more sources you gain. If some dingbat ranks Clemson #19, it should average out as nearly every other source will have them ranked in the top three. Also, if I come across sources that are completely out of whack (Rice #1, etc), I'm inclined to just skip over them since they are obviously unrealistic.

The H/L/± colums show a team's Highest Ranking, their Lowest Ranking and the swing between their high/low. This is a critical piece to consider as it reveals which teams are question marks. For example, Georgia and Clemson have a swing of 2 because every single source has pegged them within 2 spots. Texas, on the other hand, has the biggest swing of any team (20 spots, from #6 to #26-Unranked), showing that the various list writers have little to no agreement on where to place them. In my mind, these are the teams to watch for 2019 because they'll either fall flat on their faces or produce 2019's dark horse teams.

If a team did not appear on an individual ranking list (Nebraska #17 by CBS, and unranked by FPI) they receive a #26 ranking. The logic here is that once you clear the Top 25, there's really not a lot of difference between #26 and #46. Frankly, there's not a lot of difference between #26 and #20, either, but we have to account for it some way. Conversely, leaving the space at a zero could actually improve a team's standing, as their average would be across fewer sources compared to other teams.


Onto the list!
Cool..thanks Duck
 

HuskerTea

Red Shirt
5 Year Member
Below is a chart showing the available preseason rankings (so far). There are a zillion places that each write up their own preseason list, so the goal here is to merely capture some of the bigger and more reputable ranking systems out there. I'll try and update this list as new rankings are released.

A few notes:

The composite score is just a simple average across all sources. You can make an argument that ESPN might be better researched than SB Nation, but in theory, the law of averages works itself out the more sources you gain. If some dingbat ranks Clemson #19, it should average out as nearly every other source will have them ranked in the top three. Also, if I come across sources that are completely out of whack (Rice #1, etc), I'm inclined to just skip over them since they are obviously unrealistic.

The H/L/± colums show a team's Highest Ranking, their Lowest Ranking and the swing between their high/low. This is a critical piece to consider as it reveals which teams are question marks. For example, Georgia and Clemson have a swing of 2 because every single source has pegged them within 2 spots. Texas, on the other hand, has the biggest swing of any team (20 spots, from #6 to #26-Unranked), showing that the various list writers have little to no agreement on where to place them. In my mind, these are the teams to watch for 2019 because they'll either fall flat on their faces or produce 2019's dark horse teams.

If a team did not appear on an individual ranking list (Nebraska #17 by CBS, and unranked by FPI) they receive a #26 ranking. The logic here is that once you clear the Top 25, there's really not a lot of difference between #26 and #46. Frankly, there's not a lot of difference between #26 and #20, either, but we have to account for it some way. Conversely, leaving the space at a zero could actually improve a team's standing, as their average would be across fewer sources compared to other teams.


Onto the list!
Good post,but I don’t see how we can be ranked pre season at all. We won 4 games in each of the last 2 seasons. I know that we looked better at the end of last season,but we have to prove we are a winning team again. I am a keeper of the faith,and believe we will be worthy of a top 20 ranking well before season’s end.GBR.
 

DuckTownHusker

Blackshirt Sith Lord
5 Year Member
One thing that scares me a bit is how well the Big Ten is represented here. I think Nebraska will obviously be better than last year, but these composite rankings also have Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Northwestern from the West, plus OSU, PSU and both Michigan schools from the East.

Fortunately, our crossover games aren't terrible this season (we could have drawn OSU, UM and PSU). But the West could be a meat grinder again.
 
One thing that scares me a bit is how well the Big Ten is represented here. I think Nebraska will obviously be better than last year, but these composite rankings also have Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Northwestern from the West, plus OSU, PSU and both Michigan schools from the East.

Fortunately, our crossover games aren't terrible this season (we could have drawn OSU, UM and PSU). But the West could be a meat grinder again.
Purdue is another team that could win the West ... or finish last.
 
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