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Chances of Winning

If an upset is going to happen, things really need to fall into place. I don't think it happens if penalties, poor special teams, turnovers, and the typical miscues occur this week. We really haven't seen that happen yet, so I don't have much faith. They still have to play the game and bigger upsets have happened, so it's possible. GBR!
 
Compare last years KSU roster to this fall's Nebraska bunch.

Individual to individual, Nebraska is superior. Still not a one for one match with the Sooners, but few are.

They still find a way to lose a game or two a year.

Why not Saturday?

Why not Nebraska?

The worm has to turn sooner or later.
No pun intended
 
10%, we need to go at least +2 in turnovers, we need to have less than 45 yd in penalties, we need a couple of good punt returns, to give us great field position of less than 50 yards. we need to hit all FG. We need OK to blow some scoring opportunities... ie: NU 2015-2020
 
You could make a strong argument that Frost’s record at NU could have easily been 20-12, instead of 12-20 coming into this season. I mean, how many close games where Nebraska easily could have won? Probably 10 at least. That said, it’s his job to fix all that, and thus far, it’s still the same. Illinois, game 1, perfect example.

This is why I keep saying NU should be going 9-3, 10-2 almost annually. I mean, on paper, NU has more talent than everyone except Ohio State, Oklahoma (to a much lesser degree), and possibly Michigan. That’s it. The other teams? They beat you with smart play, scheme, and sound execution. So, in other words, very good coaching and development.
Absolutely agree. He is something like 5-13 in 1 score games. And I will bet dollars to pennies those losses had some of the "shoot ourselves in the foot" moments. Heck, Illinois this year is the latest example. We gave them 16 points (7 fumble return, 2 safety, 7 on a 22 yard drive after a INT was negated due to TWO 15 yard penalties). They really only scored 14 on us. But I hope we can finally play an error free game. And if Nebraska is to do that, this would be the best opportunity. No one in the world expects the huskers to win. They may not feel any pressure since they have nothing to lose. But we also had similar games against OSU and lost 56-something both times, so there is that.
 



The tendency for any fan base, not just Husker Nation, is to convince ourselves of our chances of beating an opponent, the closer we get to gametime. The path line usually looks like this:

Beginning of the season: no chance of beating OU

After a game or 2 against weaker opponents: well, maybe we can keep it close and respectable.

Week of the game: we can pull off the upset if a, b, c, d happen.

Day before the game: We got this guys. We can pull off the upset.

:Lol: :Lol: :Lol: :Lol: :Lol:

It's a fairly normal phenomenon. I appreciate all the positivity of the fans here as the closer we get to gametime, the bigger chance we seem to have of pulling off the win. I really do, and I'm finally getting a bit of excitement to watch this game unfold.

That said, I need to bring you all back to reality. We are average, at best, and OU is really, really good. Especially on the offensive side of the ball.
They are going to destroy us. I can't put it any plainer than that. The quicker we realize and admit that's most likely what is going to happen, the easier it will be to accept 2-2 and turn our focus to the conference schedule, where I believe we actually do have a shot at winning in every game.

Watch the game. Have fun. Drink a lot. But understand we are going to get blown out and that's OK. It's not the end of the season. We just aren't anywhere close to being on the level of OU.....YET! ;)

GBR
 
Absolutely agree. He is something like 5-13 in 1 score games. And I will bet dollars to pennies those losses had some of the "shoot ourselves in the foot" moments. Heck, Illinois this year is the latest example. We gave them 16 points (7 fumble return, 2 safety, 7 on a 22 yard drive after a INT was negated due to TWO 15 yard penalties). They really only scored 14 on us. But I hope we can finally play an error free game. And if Nebraska is to do that, this would be the best opportunity. No one in the world expects the huskers to win. They may not feel any pressure since they have nothing to lose. But we also had similar games against OSU and lost 56-something both times, so there is that.
Few down here think Nebraska is any good at all. They get a bit of credit for the D, which I personally don’t understand, but mostly, they think NU stinks. Lincoln Riley said, when I turn on the tape, they have some players. How much of that is coach speak? Only he knows.
 
Vegas spread has held pretty steady at Nebraska +22 +/- a point. The moneyline on the site I use spiked from +880 to +1110 since Monday, so they are looking to draw in some action on Nebraska.

This might be the worst Nebraska team since the '50s, or it might be a team on the come. I'm making a ridiculous bet that makes no sense, much like this Husker team. I'm taking OU and laying the points but betting Nebraska on the moneyline. :Biggrin:
 
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Our chance of winning is about the same as was predicted in the 94 Orange Bowl against Charlie Ward and FSU.

Hope it plays out the same (except the very end of course).
 
Our chance of winning is about the same as was predicted in the 94 Orange Bowl against Charlie Ward and FSU.

Hope it plays out the same (except the very end of course).

The talent gap and understanding how to win a game is much wider against Oklahoma this Saturday than against FSU in 94.

Can you imagine the 1993 defense going against the 2021 offensive line? Adrian Martinez would be lucky to have one 10 yard run against Trev Alberts and crew.

I guess anything is possible…though I haven’t won the lottery yet. :thumbsup:
 
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