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Calling my shot(Haarberg)

I said it last year and I will say it again this year. There is a reason Smoothers hasn't got any real snaps of consequence and unless he improves dramatically he will never get one in the future. Certainly hope he can improve but from folks that know I've been told his arm is less than impressive. You had a couple of SEC schools show interest in a small town Nebraska QB in Haarberg but only one show any interest in Smothers while going to high school in the heart of SEC country. There is also a reason for this.

There's a few things I take away from this...

1. I have a fundamental difference of opinion with how Verduzco identifies a QB prospect. He has stated on multiple occasions that the first thing he looks for is the kids athleticism. That's the first box a kid has to check. While it's clear athletic QBs make Frost's offense truly dynamic, (IMPO) arm talent has to be the first thing that attracts you to a prospect.

This offense can't have a statue behind center, but if it's me, I'm taking a QB that can make all the throws, even if it means he's "only" good for a 12-15 yard scamper off of a zone read and isn't a threat to get you 30, 40 yards, let alone take it to the house. Bottom line, I'm taking Joe Ganz over Taylor Martinez in any offense.

2. Frost (like all OCs), wants to see a kid throw in person before extending an offer. I'm not sure if he or Verduzco were able to do this? His highlight tape generally shows him being (extremely) dynamic as a runner, but not pushing the ball downfield very often. And when he does, the ball floats like what we saw in the video of practice the other day. He's mostly shown throwing balls inside 20 yards. It points to why coaches like to see a kid in person. Is there so much air under his throw because he's throwing to HS WRs who run a 4.8-40? Or is that an honest indicator of his arm strength?

Don't get me wrong, I liked Smothers tape. He was a four-year starter, and a coaches son who played in a very similar offense to Frost's. But you need to see in person if the "tape don't lie."

3. Nebraska was his first Power 5 offer in May of 2018 before his junior season. This goes back to why you need to see special arm talent in a kid, especially when offering this early. Seeing him throw 3 years later, I can't imagine his arm was terribly impressive at this stage of his development, even if coaches saw him in person. It's why you can't fall in love with athleticism first and foremost with a QB.
 

Which happens when the chains are moving. Stalled drives results in a punt, which creates no points.

But yes, have to score more. In this day and age, I’d say 35 per game is a minimum. Ideally in the 40’s would be nice. Field a defense in the 20’s or so to go with that, and you might have yourself something.
If you go back over stats from last couple years, I would take 35 ppg in a heart beat … coupled with an experienced defense and some better special teams play ought to put the Huskers on the plus side for Wins and Losses
 
NU may not have anyone who can do it all. My point is, Martinez is a senior. There is no tomorrow for him. If he has someone equal to, or better than him, then they should play. If not, then Martinez is the guy. I wouldn’t hesitate a second to make a change early if the team is struggling yet again. You can’t wait. This is a make, or bust year for Frost and staff imo.

I'd wager a lot rides on the first game against IL.

Win it, and six wins looks doable.

Lose it, and 4-5 wins will be the likely end.
 



If you go back over stats from last couple years, I would take 35 ppg in a heart beat … coupled with an experienced defense and some better special teams play ought to put the Huskers on the plus side for Wins and Losses
35 is much better than where they’ve been. I’d take that also. I don’t think 35 will be enough in Norman though.
 
I'd wager a lot rides on the first game against IL.

Win it, and six wins looks doable.

Lose it, and 4-5 wins will be the likely end.
Nebraska should absolutely club Illinois. New coach, staff and system. No excuse imo, for this game to be close. If it’s close, to me, it’s a huge red flag. 40-14 sounds about right. Time to play like it matters.
 
Totally disagree. If TF had the same amount of talent around him that AM has had the last 3 years he wouldn’t have even been starting.
I was waiting for someone to challenge me on that statement . Tommy was a career 49.5% pass completion guy with a great line and supporting cast. He was well known for bouncing the ball 10 foot in front of a receiver. This all in spite of the defense not expecting the ball to be thrown. He would have sat the bench in a Scott frost offense. Especially with the poor blocking.
 
I was waiting for someone to challenge me on that statement . Tommy was a career 49.5% pass completion guy with a great line and supporting cast. He was well known for bouncing the ball 10 foot in front of a receiver. This all in spite of the defense not expecting the ball to be thrown. He would have sat the bench in a Scott frost offense. Especially with the poor blocking.
SF wasn’t much better.
 




There's a few things I take away from this...

1. I have a fundamental difference of opinion with how Verduzco identifies a QB prospect. He has stated on multiple occasions that the first thing he looks for is the kids athleticism. That's the first box a kid has to check. While it's clear athletic QBs make Frost's offense truly dynamic, (IMPO) arm talent has to be the first thing that attracts you to a prospect.

This offense can't have a statue behind center, but if it's me, I'm taking a QB that can make all the throws, even if it means he's "only" good for a 12-15 yard scamper off of a zone read and isn't a threat to get you 30, 40 yards, let alone take it to the house. Bottom line, I'm taking Joe Ganz over Taylor Martinez in any offense.

2. Frost (like all OCs), wants to see a kid throw in person before extending an offer. I'm not sure if he or Verduzco were able to do this? His highlight tape generally shows him being (extremely) dynamic as a runner, but not pushing the ball downfield very often. And when he does, the ball floats like what we saw in the video of practice the other day. He's mostly shown throwing balls inside 20 yards. It points to why coaches like to see a kid in person. Is there so much air under his throw because he's throwing to HS WRs who run a 4.8-40? Or is that an honest indicator of his arm strength?

Don't get me wrong, I liked Smothers tape. He was a four-year starter, and a coaches son who played in a very similar offense to Frost's. But you need to see in person if the "tape don't lie."

3. Nebraska was his first Power 5 offer in May of 2018 before his junior season. This goes back to why you need to see special arm talent in a kid, especially when offering this early. Seeing him throw 3 years later, I can't imagine his arm was terribly impressive at this stage of his development, even if coaches saw him in person. It's why you can't fall in love with athleticism first and foremost with a QB.
I am only concurring with your remarks. My reference point is that of a frosh QB being mentioned for the Heisman Trophy and then never showing much if any growth in Verduzcco's system. He, V, was purported to be a QB guru, even I can see that is not the case.
From my point of view, he is the biggest disappointment in the coaching staff.
 
If you go back over stats from last couple years, I would take 35 ppg in a heart beat … coupled with an experienced defense and some better special teams play ought to put the Huskers on the plus side for Wins and Losses
If the O was putting up 35 a game,the D would be letting less in,just due to time possession and possibly extra one dimensional/passing by the opponents O.
 
Nebraska should absolutely club Illinois. New coach, staff and system. No excuse imo, for this game to be close. If it’s close, to me, it’s a huge red flag. 40-14 sounds about right. Time to play like it matters.

I'd normally agree with you. However, IL kicked our ass in Lincoln last year, and pushed us around pretty good the year before in Champaign, only to lose at the end.

Bielma is no slouch as a coach, and he will realize IL can run power on NU, and NU can't stop it. Unlike enlightened coach, Bielma would be content to ram it down our throat all day long.
 
I was waiting for someone to challenge me on that statement . Tommy was a career 49.5% pass completion guy with a great line and supporting cast. He was well known for bouncing the ball 10 foot in front of a receiver. This all in spite of the defense not expecting the ball to be thrown. He would have sat the bench in a Scott frost offense. Especially with the poor blocking.

I felt you might benefit by less attention being drawn to it.

I'd take prime Tommie in this offense every day and twice on Sunday vs anyone we've trotted out since Frost got here. He might not have been the passer that modern QBs are, but he completed his share when it mattered and he blew every other measurable and immeasurable out of the water. For every throw he might not make, he made up for it in leadership, pure grit, confidence (often arrogance that was backed up), running ability and not turning the ball over at alarming rates.
 



I felt you might benefit by less attention being drawn to it.

I'd take prime Tommie in this offense every day and twice on Sunday vs anyone we've trotted out since Frost got here. He might not have been the passer that modern QBs are, but he completed his share when it mattered and he blew every other measurable and immeasurable out of the water. For every throw he might not make, he made up for it in leadership, pure grit, confidence (often arrogance that was backed up), running ability and not turning the ball over at alarming rates.
The last part is key. Am best have that down to a maximum of two or three total this year. A four year starter that is still turning the ball over just can’t happen. Got to cut bait if he can’t protect the ball even if he’s the better qb cause at the end of the day turnovers cost us the most last year.
 
I was waiting for someone to challenge me on that statement . Tommy was a career 49.5% pass completion guy with a great line and supporting cast. He was well known for bouncing the ball 10 foot in front of a receiver. This all in spite of the defense not expecting the ball to be thrown. He would have sat the bench in a Scott frost offense. Especially with the poor blocking.
He would have played running back or safety. And he would have been good at either one.
 


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