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B1G Tournament!

They probably have to go 3-1 to get the 11 seed.

The 11 through 14 still have to play that day 1 game. 11 gets Minnesota. Too bad Wisconsin beat Michigan. Would've been nice to make a run for the 10 seed.
 






How does Nebraska get the tiebreaker over Penn St and Wisconsin?
When multiple teams are tied:
  • the first tiebreaker is the cumulative record against all tied teams. So Wisconsin falls out with the 1-3 record, and PSU and Nebraska are still tied at 2-1.
  • Next tie-breaker is head to head record, which is 1-1.
  • Next is record against top seed, which we know is Purdue, each is 0-2.
  • Next is record against second seed, which we don't know. If it is Maryland, Nebraska is 1-1 and PSU is 0-1 but has the last game of the season against MD to determine this tiebreak.
  • Next is record against third seed... sigh.

So it gets real deep real quick. Since MSU missed a game (COVID) Nebraska can't tie them, so they might be able to jump all the way up to 8th in the final standings if things fall just right - I haven't set up a system to simulate all outcomes from here so I'm making a guess on that.
 
As of games played yesterday. Courtesy of http://www.playoffstatus.com/big10basketball/big10standings.html.
It's a complete jumbled mess from seeds 2-9.
If you click into the link to get to the actual website, you can hover over cells to see things like remaining schedule and who owns a two-team tiebreaker. We'd have the tiebreaker over Iowa, Rutgers, and Wisconsin. We lose the tiebreaker to Illinois and (currently) Michigan State.
1677508933413.png
 
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If Indiana beats Iowa in Bloomington AND Nebraska beats Iowa in Iowa City, Nebraska and Iowa would be tied at 10-10 for anywhere from 7th to 9th. Nebraska owns the tiebreak with Iowa. If Nebraska were to beat MSU and Illinois lost to Michigan (likely) and OSU (unlikely) then Nebraska would be seeded 7th for the Big Ten Tournament. If Nebraska wins out, the worst they can do is 11th, but more likely they will end up 10th.

Either way, most of these potentialities are way better than I was predicting after January (2-7). Luckily February brought 5-1 (though 6-1 would be better. ;) )
 



I'm liking the site I linked above. Games that would eliminate us from each seed spot:

Nebraska Elimination Options​

Spot #5 - First Round Bye​

Nebraska cannot win this spot

Spot #6 - First Round Bye​

Case 1
Illinois beats Michigan

Case 2
Iowa beats Indiana

Case 3
Rutgers beats Minnesota

Spot #7 - First Round Bye​

Case 1
Illinois beats Michigan, and
Iowa beats Indiana

Case 2
Illinois beats Michigan, and
Rutgers beats Minnesota

Case 3
Iowa beats Indiana, and
Rutgers beats Minnesota


Spot #8 - First Round Bye​

Case 1
Illinois beats Michigan, and
Iowa beats Indiana, and
Rutgers beats Minnesota


Spot #9 - First Round Bye​

Case 1
Nebraska loses to Michigan St.


Spot #10 - First Round Bye​

No elimination cases were found for this spot

Spot #11​

No elimination cases were found for this spot


Spot #12​

Nebraska has already won this spot
 
When multiple teams are tied:
  • the first tiebreaker is the cumulative record against all tied teams. So Wisconsin falls out with the 1-3 record, and PSU and Nebraska are still tied at 2-1.
  • Next tie-breaker is head to head record, which is 1-1.
  • Next is record against top seed, which we know is Purdue, each is 0-2.
  • Next is record against second seed, which we don't know. If it is Maryland, Nebraska is 1-1 and PSU is 0-1 but has the last game of the season against MD to determine this tiebreak.
  • Next is record against third seed... sigh.

So it gets real deep real quick. Since MSU missed a game (COVID) Nebraska can't tie them, so they might be able to jump all the way up to 8th in the final standings if things fall just right - I haven't set up a system to simulate all outcomes from here so I'm making a guess on that.
Thank you
 

What a jumbled mess the Big Ten standings are from #2 to #9! Purdue has clinched #1. Michigan is sitting in #2, is out of the NCAA bracket in several projections and still could finish as low as the #8 seed. Their %s are anywhere from 6% to 20% for any of those seven spots.

Illinois could finish anywhere from #2 to #11!


Huskers are #10 (11% chance), #11 (26% chance), or #12 (63% chance).

To move up from #12, we must beat Iowa. To move to #10, we need both Penn State and Wisconsin to lose at least 1 game (Penn State hosts Maryland in their one remaining game, Wisconsin hosts Purdue and plays at Minnesota).
 

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