We're rolling the dice with anyone. There isn't a sure thing in the group. I agree with you that we don't want a flash in the pan. Frost's perfect year at UCF appears to be just that. That being said, the interview process should look at a lot more than wins and losses. Win and losses can tell a lot, but success in football at this level requires certain things.
If the goal is to get a program transforming guy, I don't think we will be able to get one of those guys once he has proven himself elsewhere. Guys like Saban, Day, Dabo, Smart, Riley, etc. aren't going to give Nebraska a look. If we want one of those guys, we'll have to find them before they become one of those guys.
Yep, it is a gamble. But there are a lot of "sure things" that end up turning out to be gambles too. I'm not saying Aranda is the guy, but I wouldn't disqualify him for lack of experience.