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A closer look at Adrian's numbers...

DuckTownHusker

Blackshirt Sith Lord
10 Year Member
Chart time! Let's find out how good this Martinez kid really is.

Below is a graph showing both passing yards (vertical axis) and rushing yards (horizontal axis) for Husker quarterbacks over their entire career. This is notable for a few reasons. First, Adrian has already surpassed many Husker QB career totals. In his freshman year. Let that sink in.

Specifically, he already has more career passing yards than:
  • Mike Grant
  • Brook Berringer
  • Zac Lee
  • Sam Keller
  • Scott Frost (yes, he's already thrown more yards than Frosty did in two years)
And he's out-rushed the following:
  • Sam Keller
  • Tanner Lee
  • Zac Taylor
  • Vince Ferragamo
  • Dave Hum
  • Zac Lee
  • Brook Berringer
  • Joe Ganz
  • Mike Grant

9dgZw4q.png


Now all this is commendable, but has he RAN for more yards that Scott Frost? Or PASSED more than Jerry Tagge? No, of course not. But again, we're talking about Adrian's numbers in a freshman season against guys who had 2-4 years under their belts. If Adrian plays four full years at Nebraska, things could get interesting. This raises a valid point, though, in terms of comparing numbers over a career versus averages for a single season. Guys like Taylor Martinez and Tommy Armstrong were four year starters and had much more time at the helm to pack on the stats.

Actually - side note - take a look at how far our Armstrong, Taylor Martinez and Eric Crouch are from the rest of the pack. Anyone who wants to crap on T-Magic, specifically, should remember that he passed for more yards than any Husker ever until Armstrong followed him up, and he damn near caught Crouch on the ground. T-Magic was only about 400 career yards shy (that's like only 8 more ypg) of catching up to our last Heisman winner. But overall, in terms of sheer yardage those three are in a class by themselves.

Unless....

We look at single-season averages:

GoUg9An.png


Holy crap.


Adjusting for averages puts Adrian majorly ahead of the game. Call up the 1995 Gators because Adrian is running more than Touchdown Tommie. He's actually within ~200 yards of Eric Crouch. And, yes, I realize Crouch's running numbers spiked dramatically in his JR/SR years en route to a Heisman, but it's impressive to think Adrian is within 20-25 extra yards per game of Crouch's pace. In fact, assuming we play at least 13 games (a bowl, a CCG, whatever), Adrian only needs to run 70ypg to outright surpass Crouch's totals.

Also - hot damn, that Jammal Lord kid could trample over some defenses, averaging almost 1300 yards per season.

Back on Adrian: in the air, he's out-throwing every single Husker QB except Zac Taylor and Tanner Lee. And while they both were solid quarterbacks, we're talking about a difference of ~500 yards per season. That's less than 50 yards per game, which I suspect we could see as Adrian and the WRs mature.

If Adrian keeps up this production over 4 years, he'll certainly wipe the floor in career passing numbers. And likely be Top 5 in career rushing. That's a big IF, but this kid has the potential to outgain just about any other QB we've ever had.
 

I honestly worry if AM progresses as many predict he won't be at Nebraska for 4 years! He piles up 3 years of outstanding run/pass stats combined with a winning record.... well everyone can see what will probably happen... hello NFL!! :mad: :mad: :mad:
 
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I honestly worry if AM progresses as many predict he won't be at Nebraska for 4 years! He piles up 3 years of outstanding run/pass stats combined with a winning record.... well everyone can see what will probably happen... hello NFL!! :mad: :mad: :mad:

That's my fear as well. If Adrian is putting up big numbers and Nebraska is decently relevant (Rose Bowl, etc) than he could be an early draft pick. Quarterbacks in particular have a lot to lose by coming back their senior year and not duplicating or surpassing the success of their junior season. Also, Adrian has incredible amounts of maturity, so I have no fear of him becoming the next Johnny Manziel and just flunking his way back out of the NFL.

I can think of a few examples of guys improving their draft stock with a big senior year (see: Ndamukong Suh) but it's rare, especially if you have a shot at being a Top 10-15 pick overall.
 



That's my fear as well. If Adrian is putting up big numbers and Nebraska is decently relevant (Rose Bowl, etc) than he could be an early draft pick. Quarterbacks in particular have a lot to lose by coming back their senior year and not duplicating or surpassing the success of their junior season. Also, Adrian has incredible amounts of maturity, so I have no fear of him becoming the next Johnny Manziel and just flunking his way back out of the NFL.

I can think of a few examples of guys improving their draft stock with a big senior year (see: Ndamukong Suh) but it's rare, especially if you have a shot at being a Top 10-15 pick overall.
The alternative would be his numbers do not get better. If his numbers continue to improve I have no issue losing him after the Junior year. We have other talent coming in.
 
The alternative would be his numbers do not get better. If his numbers continue to improve I have no issue losing him after the Junior year. We have other talent coming in.
I have an issue with it but can also understand kids bailing early for millions of dollars.... Like to have a 4th year SR leading us to a National Championship. There's usually no substitute for experience in anything.
 
I have an issue with it but can also understand kids bailing early for millions of dollars.... Like to have a 4th year SR leading us to a National Championship. There's usually no substitute for experience in anything.

Used to be that the Heisman was essentially a Seniors-Only award. And guys always came back. NCAAF was considered "big boy" football and many of them knew they wouldn't necessarily turn pro.

Today, NCAAF is largely just seen as a means to an end by many recruits. It's all about getting that fat signing bonus and if they can grab an extra million by jumping as a junior, they'll do it.

Like I said, though, Adrian is very mature. It wouldn't surprise me if he came back as a senior to finish his education. And it also wouldn't surprise me if he got drafted as a junior and acted like a completely mature adult who just happens to play in the NFL. Kid has a good head on his shoulders.
 
I honestly worry if AM progresses as many predict he won't be at Nebraska for 4 years! He piles up 3 years of outstanding run/pass stats combined with a winning record.... well everyone can see what will probably happen... hello NFL!! :mad: :mad: :mad:
That's my fear as well. If Adrian is putting up big numbers and Nebraska is decently relevant (Rose Bowl, etc) than he could be an early draft pick. Quarterbacks in particular have a lot to lose by coming back their senior year and not duplicating or surpassing the success of their junior season. Also, Adrian has incredible amounts of maturity, so I have no fear of him becoming the next Johnny Manziel and just flunking his way back out of the NFL.

I can think of a few examples of guys improving their draft stock with a big senior year (see: Ndamukong Suh) but it's rare, especially if you have a shot at being a Top 10-15 pick overall.

If he does anything close, he will be a number one draft pick. Better size and intangibles than either of the dirt burglars that were!!
 




I honestly worry if AM progresses as many predict he won't be at Nebraska for 4 years! He piles up 3 years of outstanding run/pass stats combined with a winning record.... well everyone can see what will probably happen... hello NFL!! :mad: :mad: :mad:

But we could have worse problems than a QB in the Heisman race and a risk to get a promotion. The same machine that selected and trained AM is in place, and some great athletes are waiting in the ranks. Meanwhile, the recruiting in general will continue to improve so the QB's surrounding cast should become stronger - same with the cultural factors. I would take this scenario every day and twice on .... wait for it....Sundays!!
 



thank you...Interesting. Lets see now if he can keep up now that there is film on him and the other teams adjustments to him.
 
But we could have worse problems than a QB in the Heisman race and a risk to get a promotion. The same machine that selected and trained AM is in place, and some great athletes are waiting in the ranks. Meanwhile, the recruiting in general will continue to improve so the QB's surrounding cast should become stronger - same with the cultural factors. I would take this scenario every day and twice on .... wait for it....Sundays!!
Don't disagree but I'm just old fashioned. I liked when players actually came to play for a school for 4 years as opposed to bolting for the $$$$$$. It's the way it is now and not going to change. How do you tell a 19 or 20 year old to wait another year to cash in for millions? Simple answer is don't anymore... just say it's been great and lots of luck in the NFL. It takes a special type of person to forego millions to finish out their senior year when the NFL is dangling millions. It's nice to perhaps finally have a Nebraska QB the NFL is clammering to make filthy rich.......
 
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