I think at least 5 wins, and solid elsewhere. Like, looking at a well coached team that fought tough against the nations toughest schedule, or close to it. Be able to look at the team and really see it progress. His teams can’t get out of their own way so far. I don’t even think it’s all about the wins. Just look at the damn team, by and large, it’s terrible.
With a regular non-COVID schedule, 6 wins gets a bowl. However both Moos and Coach Frost have said in articles this month they need to compete for the West, and that can only be done with 8 or more. It is not unreasonable to expect that in Year 4. Another losing season may not be recoverable.