2020 sports seasons from a guy who knows

[WestTexasHusker]

I think we have enough of the right people to say enough is enough. The hysteria moves from the masses to the minority, and we stop the nonsense. Sorry, we lose people every minute to one disease or another, and we don’t stop living. If this exact same thing happens in the 70s or 80s, we barely bat an eye, but this is the silly generations, so everything is somehow special.

The end is near, and I’m not talking about civilization. I’m of the belief the adults in the room are about to get things back in order.

I was poo poo ‘ing this thing off up until a month ago. Whenever it crests, like it is in NYC currently, there aren’t enough grave diggers. NYC will be over 100 dead PER DAY tomorrow, and that will be 200-300 DEAD PER DAY in a week. Forget ventilators just grab a shovel already!

A lot of those older adults in the room are getting ready to be dead. Consider this: there are 21 MILLION fewer cell phone users in China in the last 3 months. They aren’t even burying the dead - they are being cremated in order to keep pace.

Sports won’t resume until we have a vaccine.

 

[Middle-aged_Ball_Coach]

All that being said, I got a 6 week supply of beer on hand so I'm going nowhere.

But do you have your 6 week supply of toilet paper?

If it's Coors Light, you may want to double your estimated need for TP.

 

[lincoln84]

I'm willing to give up on a lot of things, but I can't bring myself to give up hope on having a college football season. We survived world wars, other pandemics, presidential assassinations, 9/11, etc. I have to believe we'll get through it. Without that hope, i might as well give up now.

I feel the same. I haven’t missed a CWS in 24 years—-and when it got cancelled I thought, well at least I have my 7 home games. Now? It’s a gut punch every time I think about it.

Make no mistake—we as a nation will get through this. But that will be true with or without football.

 

[Hville]

I'm unsure on football at this point. I don't think they need to make that call until Mid June or so and a lot of things will happen between now and then. Most notably is exposures. Most of the nation being exposed to it is a natural for any type of pandemic like this. However due to the fairly rapid reginal shut downs (we have never seen anything shut down at this rate ever) by regions, we are going to see that flattened curve. What happens in New York might be delayed in Nebraska for 60 days. As we are seeing things crest and start a downward trend in one area could only be building in another. I predict April will be a tough month as cases arise across the Midwest but some pockets suck as New York City, Chicago and such might see numbers dropping towards the end of the month.

Public reaction to this is not likely to change until we see a major geographical area.....likely New York start trending downward and that will give us a medical case rate and mathmatical time frame for what other regions can expect.

 

[Porkchopexpress]

I think that things that draw crowds - malls, sporting events, theatre, churches, etc. - are finished until there is a vaccine. This virus is too contagious and too lethal (comparatively speaking).

So I think absolute best case is spring 2021 sports. More realistic may be summer and fall 2021 sports.

I'm not necessarily disagreeing, but this isn't practical in the long run if we're going to have a functioning society. Staying with the college theme, if we're putting college sporting events on hold in the fall, how can colleges allow hundreds and thousands of kids to live in dorms, sharing facilities in the fall? Colleges can not afford to have a fall with no students on campus, and it would be nearly impossible for the vast majority of colleges to reopen after Christmas of 2020. There would be no operating revenue from the fall, and it would destroy hundreds of colleges. Taking this a bit further, if society is holding off on things like church gatherings, how can K-12 schools open up in the fall? Do people really think moms and dads are going to continue home schooling their kids indefinitely?

Yes, worst case scenario is no sports for another 9 months, but if that's the case, then we're going to be in such bad shape as a society that sports will be a distant afterthought.

 

[lincoln84]

College classrooms can go on-line. That’s how they finished the spring semester. That 2 trillion relief package will need another 2-4 added if this goes thru the fall.

 

[WestTexasHusker]

Friend of mine who is a D2 AD says they are expecting a 10-15% decline in fall enrollment even if classes resume as normal. Let that sink in.

 

[LarstheRed]

I was poo poo ‘ing this thing off up until a month ago. Whenever it crests, like it is in NYC currently, there aren’t enough grave diggers. NYC will be over 100 dead PER DAY tomorrow, and that will be 200-300 DEAD PER DAY in a week. Forget ventilators just grab a shovel already!

A lot of those older adults in the room are getting ready to be dead. Consider this: there are 21 MILLION fewer cell phone users in China in the last 3 months. They aren’t even burying the dead - they are being cremated in order to keep pace.

Sports won’t resume until we have a vaccine.

You seem a bit excitable about this, and it’s primarily because you are reading stats. Can you tell me how many people on average die per day in Los Angeles? It’s about 160. Now that’s an average day, not a day at the peak of the flu season. I don’t think many of us have any concept of how much death goes on around us every day. Unless of course we have it shoved in our faces on an hourly basis. Here in Austin we’ve got 160 cases...and 1 death of a 70+ year old woman with underlying health issues.

Have you spent much time in NYC? I work there pretty regularly, and I can tell you, it’s it’s own world. It is a smashed together mass of humanity, and the ethnic pockets feel like you are in a different country. I was in the Asian area in Flushing about a month ago. I went to a huge market with probably a couple of hundred vendors, and foods of all kinds out in the open giving the resemblance of something you’d see half way around the world. Environments like that will ALWAYS create higher instances of pandemic. San Fran and Seattle have similarities, far more than Los Angeles, Phoenix, Dallas or many other major cities.

I’ve looked at the numbers, and without a doubt, this is one seriously contagious bug, but we’ve had others before, and we’ve seen that different parts of the country react very differently to these types of outbreaks, just as different ages and levels of health do. If it’s a vaccine you seek, then I fear you will be waiting a long time. A simple mutation, which is common in many viruses, could render that ineffective almost immediately.

Focus on the most vulnerable, put the resources into protecting them, and let the world work through this normally.

 

[WestTexasHusker]

You seem a bit excitable about this, and it’s primarily because you are reading stats. Can you tell me how many people on average die per day in Los Angeles? It’s about 160. Now that’s an average day, not a day at the peak of the flu season. I don’t think many of us have any concept of how much death goes on around us every day. Unless of course we have it shoved in our faces on an hourly basis. Here in Austin we’ve got 160 cases...and 1 death of a 70+ year old woman with underlying health issues.

Have you spent much time in NYC? I work there pretty regularly, and I can tell you, it’s it’s own world. It is a smashed together mass of humanity, and the ethnic pockets feel like you are in a different country. I was in the Asian area in Flushing about a month ago. I went to a huge market with probably a couple of hundred vendors, and foods of all kinds out in the open giving the resemblance of something you’d see half way around the world. Environments like that will ALWAYS create higher instances of pandemic. San Fran and Seattle have similarities, far more than Los Angeles, Phoenix, Dallas or many other major cities.

I’ve looked at the numbers, and without a doubt, this is one seriously contagious bug, but we’ve had others before, and we’ve seen that different parts of the country react very differently to these types of outbreaks, just as different ages and levels of health do. If it’s a vaccine you seek, then I fear you will be waiting a long time. A simple mutation, which is common in many viruses, could render that ineffective almost immediately.

Focus on the most vulnerable, put the resources into protecting them, and let the world work through this normally.

I’m probably excitable since my stats show I am facing $75K a month in business expenses plus personal, with no income.

 

[BleedinHuskerRed]

The financial duress on athletic programs is already going to be substantial. Just because the NCAA (or NAIA) grants an extra year for everyone, does not mean that athletic budgets have the means to fund all of those. They likely will not.

The vast majority of college programs are running almost exclusively on student taxes. I have an AD friend who is saying they are preparing for a minimum 10% enrollment drop in the fall. You are going to see a lot of D1 programs either drop football or drop down to D2, D2 programs drop to D3, and a lot of D3 programs with volunteer head coaches and very limited travel.

Game changer.

Dang.

 

[Nehunter88]

You seem a bit excitable about this, and it’s primarily because you are reading stats. Can you tell me how many people on average die per day in Los Angeles? It’s about 160. Now that’s an average day, not a day at the peak of the flu season. I don’t think many of us have any concept of how much death goes on around us every day. Unless of course we have it shoved in our faces on an hourly basis. Here in Austin we’ve got 160 cases...and 1 death of a 70+ year old woman with underlying health issues.

Have you spent much time in NYC? I work there pretty regularly, and I can tell you, it’s it’s own world. It is a smashed together mass of humanity, and the ethnic pockets feel like you are in a different country. I was in the Asian area in Flushing about a month ago. I went to a huge market with probably a couple of hundred vendors, and foods of all kinds out in the open giving the resemblance of something you’d see half way around the world. Environments like that will ALWAYS create higher instances of pandemic. San Fran and Seattle have similarities, far more than Los Angeles, Phoenix, Dallas or many other major cities.

I’ve looked at the numbers, and without a doubt, this is one seriously contagious bug, but we’ve had others before, and we’ve seen that different parts of the country react very differently to these types of outbreaks, just as different ages and levels of health do. If it’s a vaccine you seek, then I fear you will be waiting a long time. A simple mutation, which is common in many viruses, could render that ineffective almost immediately.

Focus on the most vulnerable, put the resources into protecting them, and let the world work through this normally.

For me reading stats at this time doesn't mean much because it's way too early to draw any conclusion from stats. But here's the way I see the numbers.

Many want to compare this to the flu, and how the death rate is falling and getting much closer to the flu, and I could agree with that. But I also think this has shown to be far more contagious then the standard flu, mainly because so many can spread it while not showing any signs of being sick, something not seen with the standard flu. Then we have to add in the fact that millions of people get flu shots each year, but that doesn't do any good in this case. Plus we should probably add in the fact that no one has ever gotten this before since it is new, and that may add to the numbers who get it.

With all that in mind you have to ask yourself how many more people will get this compared to the flu, two times as many, three, four, ten. Too early to tell, but even now we can see it will be a lot more.

So it seems we can take the number of flu deaths each year, and then add to that two times, three times, or maybe ten times more people even if we stay with the same death rate, and that's not accounting for overloaded hospitals that can't care for everyone. The numbers at the end are not going to be pretty, even if the death rate matches the standard flu.

 

[RedRum]

Here is why you need to keep sports shut down:

https://time.com/5809848/game-zero-soccer-game-italy/

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/27/world/europe/coronavirus-italy-bergamo.html

This seems like a pretty week correlation for an outbreak in Italy. What makes more sense, Italians attending a soccer match at a time when it wasn't spreading in Europe or Chinese nationals visiting some of their 300,000 relatives in Italy at a time it was spreading in China?

Redirect Notice

www.google.com

 

[RedRum]

There is no doubt that large gatherings are spreading this like wildfire, even in the most remote areas. A few weeks ago, there was a regional 2A basketball tournament here in the Texas panhandle in the tiny town of Levelland. Well guess what? Someone(s) at that game had COVID and it spread like wildfire. There's a tiny town here called Nazareth - a participating team at the tournament, that is announcing new cases every day.

Map shows timeline of possible COVID-19 spread from regional basketball tournament

Several teams from the Texas Panhandle attended the tournament, and several cases of COVID-19 have been confirmed in the counties the schools are in.

www.newschannel10.com

Let's not get carried away here. 7 cases in Levelland, 7 in Nazareth, and 2 in Vega isn't exactly wildfire. It could be a couple of families.

And to some of the other posts others have made in this thread, in the Texas panhandle, we have 18 cases in a 25,000 square mile area with a population of around 450,000 people. It would be irresponsible to not think about getting back to normal in our area. It is likely to be far worse next winter than it is now and burning people out on quarantine when cases are low is counterproductive.

 

[RedRum]

m

Except that this decision will not be up to the public, unfortunately. The NCAA made very quick calls on March Madness and CWS. I pray to God we have a season but like Kirk, I would be absolutely shocked if it happens.

Thats a good point. No matter what the reality is, the NCAA is likely to take the "if we can avoid 1 death" stance.

 

[RedRum]

You seem a bit excitable about this, and it’s primarily because you are reading stats. Can you tell me how many people on average die per day in Los Angeles? It’s about 160. Now that’s an average day, not a day at the peak of the flu season. I don’t think many of us have any concept of how much death goes on around us every day. Unless of course we have it shoved in our faces on an hourly basis. Here in Austin we’ve got 160 cases...and 1 death of a 70+ year old woman with underlying health issues.

Have you spent much time in NYC? I work there pretty regularly, and I can tell you, it’s it’s own world. It is a smashed together mass of humanity, and the ethnic pockets feel like you are in a different country. I was in the Asian area in Flushing about a month ago. I went to a huge market with probably a couple of hundred vendors, and foods of all kinds out in the open giving the resemblance of something you’d see half way around the world. Environments like that will ALWAYS create higher instances of pandemic. San Fran and Seattle have similarities, far more than Los Angeles, Phoenix, Dallas or many other major cities.

I’ve looked at the numbers, and without a doubt, this is one seriously contagious bug, but we’ve had others before, and we’ve seen that different parts of the country react very differently to these types of outbreaks, just as different ages and levels of health do. If it’s a vaccine you seek, then I fear you will be waiting a long time. A simple mutation, which is common in many viruses, could render that ineffective almost immediately.

Focus on the most vulnerable, put the resources into protecting them, and let the world work through this normally.

Good points. Was having this conversation with my wife last night about 1,000 deaths in a day in Italy. She couldn't believe me that on average, there are around 1,750 deaths per day there with no Coronavirus.

We will ultimately need to look at overall deaths to see the impact. Because there is a baseline mortality, you have to look at the difference. The median age of death was 80 and the probability of dying in one year without the Coronavirus is 5.77% for a male. At 90, it's 16%.

Actuarial Life Table

Actuarial Life Table

www.ssa.gov