It's all speculative, but I think there's around a 33% chance that they have a big year. It would take some talent development, a hot start, and a little bit of luck, but it's possible. I'm with you, the odds are that we don't and we all know how that will end. Of course with Eichorst, you never know for sure.
If Miles wins big this year, Eichorst's only play is to extend his contract and invest in him. He'd have to given that he hasn't extended his contract for the past two seasons. Whether Miles wins and is retrained or we have to hire a new coach, it's becoming imperative that relationships improve with local coaches and players, especially in the Omaha metro.
As SSO stated earlier, Miles made the right decision, this level would be a huge jump for Arop. Should have waited for development before offering. That said, it's absolutely crucial to get the next Omaha metro Sudanese kid who can play at this level enrolled at Nebraska. Should have been Chang but wasn't, we must get the next one. Getting in good with the Omaha Sudanese basketball community will really help boost our program the next decade or two. If we don't tap that pipeline, Iowa and Creighton will.
The 'Sunshine-Pumper' in me thinks that you may be a little too pessimistic. I rather think I'd be more inclined to reverse your percentages. It's probably more likely there's a 33% chance we won't have a big year if we don't have a little bit of luck. With a little bit of luck, I believe it's more likely there's a 67% chance we Will have a big year.

Think about it: Last year we had all of the above (talent development, a hot start, and a little bit of luck) except for the luck part; leading to the disastrous season end slump. This year, With a little bit of luck (i.e. Duby is eligible for the full year, Copeland successfully rehabs from his back surgery and is able to contribute to his ability, and Gill is able to come back from last-years debilitating knee injury and contribute meaningful minutes), we Can have a big year.
Overall, the team is just that much more experienced than last year. I don't think I've ever seen as much talent across the board on any team fielded by Miles while here. How many Rivals top 150 players do we have on the roster?
For the moment, Eichorst has made his bed with Miles, and his vision; but not to such an extent that he can't let him go on short notice if he doesn't produce results. Miles can recruit; The question is, and remains, how well can he (and his staff) coach-em-up?
While I wholeheartedly agree with both of the following sentiments, does anyone else see the irony of the importance of developing relationships in Omaha; followed by admonishment for offering Aguek too early?
I believe that success on the court is a necessary prerequisite to recruiting the area. If Miles proves he can put a winner on the court, recruiting will follow.