Discussion in 'Men's Basketball' started by BGRed, Nov 27, 2018.
Continuing the slide:
They project four more wins. I don't see it.
I'm sure they simulate based on full season stats. I'd like to see them add some sort of trend metrics...weight more recent games more heavily.
Simulate on the last 10, and see the results.
The chance of getting a bid is still projected as 5%.
There's still a chance!
At this point is it about the 5% chance of getting to the dance? There is a real chance we do not even get an invite to the NIT
There's still a chance...
NU is comfortably entrenched in 13th position, 1.5 games out of last place.
NET down to 40th, RPI 110th
The game against DII sw minn st is not counted in the calculations
DR Ratings now has NU out of the NIT.
We were given a 79% mark to beat Minnesota, so no real change to the simulations. I'd think we'd be in the NIT if we manage to stay over .500.
A 4-2 finish in the regular season gets us to 18-13 and would include good wins against Iowa & Purdue. That might be enough to get us back on the bubble; but, I'd say that we absolutely must win those four 'easiest' games and knock off one of the Michigan schools to be seriously in the conversation again.
And even then, would very likely have to do some damage in the Big Ten Tournament (i.e. win AT LEAST two games -- even then, the Dance would be far from a lock).
It's basically going to take a miracle.
Well, at least we should be able to gain a bit of momentum with a relatively easy opponent next up in Northwestern. But as with Minnesota, that game won't do much to boost our chances. It just keeps us from falling off the cliff, assuming we win.
The last team we beat that has a greater than 30% chance to make the tournament was Clemson (39% chance, according to Team Rankings) -- way back on November 26. In other words, NU will have to beat at least a couple teams that are better than any team we've beaten this season to realistically have any shot.
So, you're saying there's a chance...
Last night's game was one we were expected to win. Therefore, our chances have not improved much. One point to keep in mind is that the site says that they don't have the history of NET to correlate how the NCAA chooses teams. They still simulate games in the same way for overall record.
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