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TeamRankings

Discussion in 'Men's Basketball' started by BGRed, Nov 27, 2018.

  1. BGRed

    BGRed Starter 15 Year Member

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    two road losses ding us a bit; but, we were only slightly above 50% chance to win each game. the statistical results of those games, particularly giving up 90+ to Iowa cascade through the simulations for the remaining games. Still considered the #3 team in the conference, although it is very tight from #3-#7.

    We've dropped to a #6 seed. My quick and dirty bracket build landed us in the Wash DC Regional and Hartford Pod.
    Hartford: #3 Buffalo vs. #14 Hofstra, #6 Nebraska vs. # 11 Butler
    - I have Kansas as #2 seed in same region.

    upload_2019-1-7_8-39-58.png
     
    huskernut likes this.
  2. BGRed

    BGRed Starter 15 Year Member

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  3. BGRed

    BGRed Starter 15 Year Member

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    Friday morning update. Decent, frustrating win last night in a game that we absolutely had to win. The B1G should get a good number of teams in the tournament; but, seeding is definitely a logjam for the B1G teams in the 7-9 seed lines. Iowa now showing as sneaking in after a couple of decent wins.

    upload_2019-1-11_9-46-37.png

    My quick and dirty bracket build has us in the KC Region if we make the sweet sixteen; but, the path is getting harder as we slide down the seeds.

    First/Second Rounds in Jacksonville
    #2 N Carolina vs. #7 Radford
    #7 Nebraska vs. #10 LSU
     
  4. BGRed

    BGRed Starter 15 Year Member

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    Last night's win was slightly unexpected by the metrics and the projections move us back to a #6 seed. Quick bracket build keeps us in Jacksonville in the KC Region.

    #3 Auburn vs. #14 Loyola Chi
    #6 Nebraska vs. #11 Wofford

    Other side of the Sweet Sixteen path:
    #2 Kansas vs. #15 Montana
    #7 NC State vs. #10 St Johns


    For those interested, these projections have Creighton as one of the last four in. I have them playing Texas in the First Four, then on to Des Moines to face Houston.
     
    huskernut likes this.
  5. All 'N' 011808

    All 'N' 011808 Former Walk-on 2 Year Member

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    Nebraska is up to #10 in NET rankings; Michigan State is #7.
     
  6. Ackos

    Ackos Heisman 15 Year Member

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    Net Rankings:
    Virginia
    Meechicken
    Tennessee
    Duke
    Texas Tech (remember those guys?)
    Gonzaga
    Mich St
    VTech
    Houston
    NU

    :wow:
    North Car
    Kentucky
    Kansas
     
    huskernut likes this.
  7. Ackos

    Ackos Heisman 15 Year Member

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    NU is the only team in the top10 with more than 2 loses
     
  8. BGRed

    BGRed Starter 15 Year Member

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    The TeamRankings site has stated that haven't yet been able to judge how the new NET rankings will impact seeding; so, they are still using the old RPI in their bracket selections.

    I assume that the game simulations and corresponding records are not affected by that, just affects who TeamRankings puts into the bracket and where they are seeded.

    I've been poking around bracket projection sites to try to find something that similarly tries to use actual metrics to project the rest of the season; but, most do the old "if the season ended today" type of bracketing.
     
  9. BGRed

    BGRed Starter 15 Year Member

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    The Big Ten race will be interesting down the stretch. From the Big Dance perspective, it is Michigan and Michigan State on the top two seeds lines and then a logjam of teams from 6-9.

    upload_2019-1-18_12-19-22.png



    The metrics like our chances and put us as significant favorites in all but 3 of the remaining games.
    upload_2019-1-18_12-17-48.png
     
  10. HuskerWeatherman

    HuskerWeatherman Husker Fan 15 Year Member

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    Wisconsin had a huge win today -- handing Michigan their first loss of the season.

    The Badgers now are 4-3 in the Big Ten -- with a high quality win.

    Nebraska now stands at 8th in the Big Ten at 3-4. Their three wins are against Indiana (3-4), Illinois (1-5), and Penn State (0-7). What are NU's best wins of the season? Clemson, Seton Hall, Indiana? Probably -- though none of those teams have winning conference records as of today. Purdue beat Indiana fairly handily this afternoon.

    Nebraska will have opportunities -- but I think they are going to need some quality wins under their belt -- better wins than they have thus far.

    NU gets Ohio State and Wisconsin late in January. Both in Lincoln. Golden opportunities.

    In February, Nebraska will have home games against Maryland, Minnesota, Purdue, and Iowa. More chances. We'll also have road games against Purdue, Michigan, and Michigan State -- chances, but much more difficult.

    Whatever metrics are showing now, I personally believe Nebraska needs to do quite a bit more to make the tournament. They have done a good job of avoiding bad losses, so that counts in their favor. But I think the Huskers are still lacking in quality wins. And ultimately, I'd feel a lot more confident in a tournament bid with a winning conference record, and higher than 8th in the standings.
     
  11. BGRed

    BGRed Starter 15 Year Member

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    I agree, the metrics are full season, but the trend is that the Huskers are not performing as well as they had been and other teams in the conference are on the upswing. The overnight change in metrics simulation proves this out. Purdue, Maryland, Wisconsin bumping up, Huskers stay at a low #7 seed.

    We need to make sure to get to 22 wins according to the second chart. That is 9-4 down the stretch. 8-5 and we're struggling to make it.



    upload_2019-1-20_9-9-7.png


    upload_2019-1-20_9-12-2.png
     
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  12. weaver75

    weaver75 Recruit 5 Year Member

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    I agree. And with Michigan, MSU, and Purdue on the road, we only have room for one or maybe two hiccups absent a huge upset win.
     
  13. HuskerWeatherman

    HuskerWeatherman Husker Fan 15 Year Member

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    9-4 is going to be a huge challenge.

    @Rutgers
    Ohio State
    Wisconsin
    @Illinois
    Maryland
    @Purdue
    Minnesota
    Northwestern
    @Penn State
    Purdue
    @Michigan
    @Michigan State
    Iowa

    There's three games that are going to be extremely difficult to win -- @Purdue, @Michigan, @Michigan State.

    If we lose those three, that means 9-1 in the rest of the games. Very little room for error. If we don't sweep the next four games, our backs will be against the wall; we definitely need to win 3 of the next 4.
     
  14. BGRed

    BGRed Starter 15 Year Member

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    After chaos in the top ten over the weekend, the updated metrics this morning have us sliding a little more into danger zone. Projected record of 21.5-10.5 with metrics suggesting that we are in likely in with 22 wins and likely out with 21 wins.

    We simply have to win the games were are supposed to win.
    upload_2019-1-21_8-53-30.png

    My quick and dirty bracket work this morning:

    Anaheim Region:

    Salt Lake City Pod:
    #7 Nebraska vs. #10 Texas
    #15 UC Irvine vs. #2 Gonzaga


    We just cannot stand around and watch JPJ try to win a game for us. Ball movement, team play, find the hot hand...
     
  15. BGRed

    BGRed Starter 15 Year Member

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    The metrics treat each game the same and I don't think that there are trends as part of the calculations. So, last night's loss only knocks us down 1 seed line to the best #8 team. Due to bracket constraints, I needed another B1G team in the lower portion of the bracket and bumped them to a #7 in the quick and dirty bracket.

    I'd now have us going to Tulsa to play Arizona in the first round and Kansas in the second.

    upload_2019-1-22_7-38-59.png

    upload_2019-1-22_7-39-51.png

    We still seem to need to get to 22 wins to move on the good side of the bubble.
    upload_2019-1-22_7-41-25.png
     

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