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*** observation/prediction

I'll have to start this by stating that they really are trying to get a grip on what is coming out of fall camp. In the past, i've been pretty open about how letting media watch all of the practices can be negative, with certain sites giving breakdowns of plays, who threw interceptions, and causing panic when a kid is just taking a day off. I'll try to get detailed without giving too much away.

Quarterback
Tanner Lee had the day everyone said he was going to have, that guy gets the ball in some areas that you don't think have a chance. Brian Christopherson on the radio the other day talked about how going on air in the past, there would still be "a lot of balls hitting the ground." As you should all know, if there isn't a defender out there, every play should be a completion save maybe one or two. We are getting closer to that this year. Also, i'll put in here that Lee is looking decently athletic, but we are still going to need the line to help him out, he won't be able to escape the things Armstrong did. To that point, we have stuff still in the playbook from when #4 was here to keep the defenses honest. The 2nd string QB race is interesting, I don't think it's total fluff. But what I will say is I guarantee this staff is hoping Lee stays healthy so they don't have to make a decision on it. Watching the two throw (POB vs Gebbia), Gebbia has to put much more effort and motion into throwing the ball to get it the same distance or same velocity. He just needs more weight and muscle, but even with that short coming he still looks pretty similar to POB, it just takes longer for him to release it because of his windup or his need to get more of his body into it. I think we are still giving the nod currently to POB if we have to, but Gebbia will give him all he can handle once Lee leaves. But overall the amount of throws to the TEs and RBs is impressive. I happened to catch live video of Langsdorf at practice Saturday now that he finally has QBs that go thru their progressions:
giphy.gif


Runningback
This position... so many people would kill to be in the spot our RBs are in, someone has to grab the bull by the horns here. This is going to be said a lot thru this summary, but the best way I can describe the RB situation is that we have 3 guys that do many things well, they just have one or two things they are struggling with. Whereas an Alabama or Ohio State (say Ezekiel Elliott) didn't have many flaws in his game. Ozigbo for sure is slimmed down, Wilbon for sure is shiftier, Bryant for sure is a year older. I like Wilbon the best, think Bryant has the most upside, but think they will go with Ozigbo to prove me wrong. I have a feeling it will be by rotation this year. Regarding Bradley, that kid is going to be real good, the hype is pretty legitimate as he was making the other 3rd string guys and freshmen look silly. The problem is, so would the other 3 guys. So do you waste his redshirt so he can be your fourth string guy? I wouldn't, unless there's some injuries. Didn't see anything of Mazour and am wondering if they moved him to slot or something like that.

Wide Receiver
Morgan, DPE, and Lindsey are freaking beasts. Just get thru camp not getting them nicked up. The format was 1s vs 2s, 2s vs 1s, and when our #2 offense played the #1 defense, all our qb did was look for Lindsey and he moved our #2s right down the field. Our top 5/6 WRs are good and dangerous, we just have to keep them healthy. I also think our offense will do a great job of getting some double TE formations going to not have us with 3 and 4 WR sets all the time. We need to beef this core up in the 2018 class tho, and I think we are doing that.

Tightend
I didn't get to watch this group as much as I wanted. Hoppes is a lot better than people give him credit for and the hot take of the day is he may have better stats than Cethan Carter did last year just due to our QBs looking for him. Our young guys are coming along, and Miles and McNitt are great additions to help out at the H-back spot.

Offensive Line
tenor.gif

That gif doesn't sum up physical stature for these guys, that's the kind of year they have to have if we want to be the team we think we can be. The starting five are pretty much set even though I still feel like our best line includes Decker at center and Conrad at RT. But there's things I don't see and i'm not at every practice or meeting. Our backups with Raridon, Decker, and Wilson make the inside of our line solid and deep. Where our issue will come into play is our 4th string tackle. I think they feel comfortable if Knevel goes down replacing him with Farniok, but if Gates goes down, Gaylord would be tough to put out there. In that instance I think we would see Conrad get to a tackle spot like I previously stated. Jaimes is behind Gaylord and I think it's a matter of time before he overtakes him, but do you burn his redshirt for fourth string tackle? I doubt it, but they will probably make that decision in September looking at health.

Defensive Line
Mick Stoltenberg is the most valuable piece of our defense, we can not lose that guy. No one can move that kid. But our DL reminds me a bit of the LB spot, where we have a ton of options at DE, but one solid one at NG. Carlos Davis and Freedom are going to be just fine as starters, and with guys like Daishon Neal, Ben Stille, and Khalil Davis to back them up, we are fine. But our backup at NG right now is Peyton Newell, and it concerns me. Gotta figure that out.

Inside LBs
So i'll just say this, if we aren't good here, we won't be good on defense. We have way too many options. Young, Weber, Roberts, Barry, and Miller give us 5 guys for 2 spots that we should be able to find someone. There's not much for me to say here.

Outside LBs
I didn't come away positive but i'll try to spin it that way. Luke Gifford is by far our best guy, not fluff articles. Our second best is Marcus Newby, and they play the same position. Alex Davis and Sedrick King when picked on did not do well when I was there. But OLB reminds me of what I said at RB, we have guys that are good at 3 or 4 things then below average at a couple other things. That won't cut it for championships as teams can exploit that. I didn't get to see a ton of Guy Thomas, but he and Brendan Jameis were having some good battles during 1 on 1s. We gotta figure this out in a hurry. There's so much new for King and Davis that there will be growing pains in games. Be patient with them, but it's a reason to pump the brakes a bit about the new defense.

Safeties
Kalu is entrenched and good, but Antonio Reed is closer than people think starting. I would still give the nod to Aaron Williams when he isn't nicked up, but we are sitting nicely there. Kieron Williams gives us a formidable 2 deep roster. There's not much to say here, I feel good.

Cornerback
This is another story. I wasn't sold on Jackson last year, and we move Kalu to have him start. Eric Lee actually had a pretty decent day, but in no way for me is Jackson, Lee, Kalu, Williams a better secondary than Kalu, Lee, Williams, Reed. It was pretty cool to see the coaching going on because these guys know how big of a spot this is. But one of the first plays Tanner Lee hit Stanley Morgan on a 45 yard bomb right in stride over Lamar Jackson. Donte Williams immediately went and coached him up for about 5 minutes on his own. Lamar Jacksons ceiling is higher than any defensive back we currently have on the team, his consistency is close to the worst. I hope we figure this out, and a guy like Stovall from Creighton Prep may end up being our answer, he is playing really well. I would also say I expect Jones to be back sometime this season.

Offensive Summary
We go as far as our OL takes us, 9 guys that are a mix of highly rated and/or Cav guys has to be the year that we are where we want to be. When you say the starting 5, and you add our WRs like Morgan, DPE, and Lindsey to it, you have to be excited. As for our QB, i've stated many times that there are things we will miss about Armstrong (his escapability for example), but while Tanner Lee may lack some of that, his ability to get us in the right play and go thru progressions may trump what we lose there, again especially if the OL does their job. RBs will be fine, those guys all depend on the dudes up front anyway and they are all good enough to succeed. And our TEs are unknowns but we have some good ones that are a year or two away behind Hoppes.

Defensive Summary
NG, DE, ILB, and S are dang good for us. Conversely, i'm worried about OLB and CB. If you trust conventional wisdom, if you are good thru the middle of your defense, you should be fine. I like that. We are going to have to find a way to help our corners and I don't mean in the traditional sense. Whether that's help with safeties over the top, or Cover 0/1 and blitz so they only have to cover for a second or two. Diaco's energy is starting to help as well. I don't try to get too deep into the Banker vs. Diaco thing, but I do think it's important defensively to like who you are playing for, it's hard to go 100% when the ball is going away from you. Banker just couldn't motivate the guys, Hughes just couldn't motivate them. I think we have that fixed, and you should see that this year.

Freshmen not redshirt watch
Lindsey
Miles
Roberts
DThomas

If injuries, freshmen that could play
Gebbia
Bradley
Jaimes

Overall summary
To me, I didn't see anything different than the 7 to 9 win team i've seen the past decade. We still have guys at some positions that are above average to really good at certain things, but still have one or two things that can be exploited. The top teams are usually full of guys that don't have too many weaknesses. To glass is half full that, when Tanner Lee is upright our offense is humming, so our OL and him could get us to the 9 or 10 win mark. But i've talked about it before that they just haven't been good the first couple years, so I need to see it before I start thinking it's just magically going to happen. I also worry about the new defense and the positions I already talked about, and I don't need to expand on that much more.

I don't see anything that would lead me to believe our fortunes are going to be different against Ohio State, Penn State, or Wisconsin. I still think we will be in dog fights against Iowa, Northwestern, and Oregon. I obviously don't think we lose all of those. But 7-5 or 9-3 is still for the most part the same to me. If we can win one of that first group I mentioned, and then go 2-1 in the second group I mentioned taking us to 9-3 in the regular season, that's a heck of a year in my opinion. I am not very good at visualizing, so the whole "we have a QB for our system now" is tough for me to just get on board with us being instantly better. That sentiment is not wrong in the slightest in regard to what we want, but we gotta put some things on the field on Saturdays before I start believing it. The phrase I believe with my eyes not with my ears holds really true for me. But Tanner Lee and our OL being as good as we hope would be what is needed to get us to 9-3 or 10-2, and i'm just not able to get to that yet. I'm still putting us at 8-4 this year at this point.

Possible good news
I am not sure Morgan or Reed will be suspended at all (my opinion). I am hearing that they possibly did multiple week inpatient rehab as part of their court order and as punishment and i'm thinking if they passed that and charges were lifted, they wouldn't have to miss time. The rehab thing I know is true, the no suspension is what i'm gathering from trying to put the puzzle together. That could be wrong tho.
 

A 7 to 9 win season would be a YUGE disappointment IMHO. Barring injuries, our offense should be much better than anything we have seen in years. Our QB/RB/WR skill positions will be better than anything we have had in ages and yet we will only be a marginal team? What am I missing? OL? I think TL will make everyone around him better including the line. I m too old for another rebuilding project.
 
Thanks for the thorough, insight-filled post ***, appreciate the update.

Lamar Jackson's attitude and outlook through the summer workouts and 2 weeks of practice has been improved over last year (well documented), but I am curious how he took the coaching after getting beat early in the scrimmage ... and how did he respond, and did his play improve?

To carry this a little further, in your opinion, is there anyone else working at CB who could step in if LJ is not able to overcome the early inconsistencies? High ceiling is one thing, but the impression given thus far is that Diaco will play the best - at every position.
 



As always...thank you for the incredible information in this post. It is greatly appreciated. :thumbsup:

However, I am going to have nightmares tonight after viewing some of the gifs in the post. :Banghead:
 
A 7 to 9 win season would be a YUGE disappointment IMHO. Barring injuries, our offense should be much better than anything we have seen in years. Our QB/RB/WR skill positions will be better than anything we have had in ages and yet we will only be a marginal team? What am I missing? OL? I think TL will make everyone around him better including the line. I m too old for another rebuilding project.
Not that this is what you were getting at... but 8-4 or 9-3 I wouldn't consider rebuilding. We swapped out some terrible east team for the defending conference champion on our schedule. We could be 8-4 this regular season and very well be better.
 
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Thanks for the thorough, insight-filled post ***, appreciate the update.

Lamar Jackson's attitude and outlook through the summer workouts and 2 weeks of practice has been improved over last year (well documented), but I am curious how he took the coaching after getting beat early in the scrimmage ... and how did he respond, and did his play improve?

To carry this a little further, in your opinion, is there anyone else working at CB who could step in if LJ is not able to overcome the early inconsistencies? High ceiling is one thing, but the impression given thus far is that Diaco will play the best - at every position.
Jacksons attitude is outstanding and he appeared to be intently listening to Williams. Bootle and Stovall give me some hope but I'm not sold yet. I may actually lean Stovall but I'm on like 1 practice observation so really what do I know.
 




Thanks for the updates. I know Mazour to slot was speculation, but that could be a good move. Sounds like playing time at RB would be tough, but some depth at receiver wouldn't hurt and he might contribute as a possession guy if he had to.
 
I like Mazour in the slot for the jet sweeps this staff likes. I prefer a running back getting the ball on those rather than a wide receiver. So many things have to improve for this team to win 9 - 10 like we should. I am afraid we will miss Tommy and the things he could do. This offensive line has to take a big jump forward. I am hopeful!!!!
 



One thing that might be the biggest game changer is Jack Cichy (Wisconsin) being out for the year. You spoke of "if the middle of your defense is good, then you are good". Well Cichy was the cog in that wheel! I think that Nebraska not only beats Wisconsin, I feel it will happen in convincing style. Obviously pure speculation but I know last year's game still sticks with the guys that played in it.
 


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