First, if a kid is drafted first 5 rounds, the scouts have basically almost been guaranteed by said player and their family that they are going the MLB route. A team will rarely "waste" a pick on someone who hasn't told them they are for sure going. So most all teams lose the kids that are drafted this high. What comes into play is for Erstad, he has to find out what a kid and their family wants to do because he can't risk it. The terrible thing is recruiting is so accelerated you have no idea how good a kid will get and where his draft stock will go. On another board, someone stated "Erstad basically has to outrecruit the scouts to find guy's way better than their draft grade." That's tough.
But let's move on to how teams not in the B1G don't get screwed. In the B1G, once a scholarship is given and accepted, it's gone for that year whether the kid makes it to campus or not. So in this case with Swanda, we lose his scholarship percentage for the next year. But let's say he was signed with Arkansas, he Razorbacks can do one of two things. The less likely is they have another one or two guys at the position committed as well with the same or "overlapping" scholarship percentage, because once that kid signs, it frees up that scholarship for them. The more likely is Arkansas goes and gets a kid out of JUCO that was only a freshman but eligible out of high school to fill the void. Again, something we can't do since that money is tied up with Swanda.
Now let's rewind where Ben Miller and Derek Burkamper were drafted last year and chose to come back, but then go undrafted this year. That's going to play a big part in Alvarado, Meyers, and Schreibers decision and I fear we may lose all 3. So we not only lose Swandas scholarship, but we lose those 3s percentage, and we lose Probst who flipped to Iowa. We may be playing this season with only 8 scholarships. The only way to avoid this is to hold scholarships back then you can go grab JUCO guys.
Draft can hit you hard in the B1G even if you see it coming.
