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How Does Frost's First Year Stack Up Against Others?

  • Thread starter Deleted member 3561
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Deleted member 3561

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But if you wanted a super simple score-keeping method for coaching hires, I'd do it by comparing power rankings year-to-year. If the rankings are good rankings, that should tell you something about actual improvement or regression regardless of wins and losses (and I would argue knowing about either is actually more important than wins and losses in a Year 1).
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So let's do that quick just to try and get a sense of what just happened at Nebraska. I'll use S&P+ as the power ranking of choice here as I like its component parts the best and understand them the most.
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Frost jumped 46 spots. Nebraska finished 103rd in 2017 under Riley and 57th this year. During his first year at UCF he jumped 48 spots.

While Frost's 2018 was good, it only ranks third among this season's "freshman class" of coaches. Dan Mullen engineered the biggest jump at Florida, which might say more about just how bizarre the Gators' fall to 4-7 was a year ago under Jim McElwain. Chad Lunsford and Georgia Southern took second place in 2018. That one feels a little more emblematic of what's actually happening in Statesboro. Lunsford's jump would be closer to No. 1 this season if he hadn't taken over on an interim basis halfway through last season and went 2-4 no doubt bumping the Eagles' ranking slightly at the end of 2017.
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Obviously a lot can change year over year, but Nebraska is power ranked ahead of every team on their schedule next year except for 4: Ohio St, Purdue, Wisconsin and Iowa. I maintain that 8 wins is the barometer of success next year. And I feel like Nebraska should be able to steal one or two wins next year. So I don't think 10 wins is out of the question.

https://hailvarsity.com/s/5591/hot-reads-how-does-frosts-first-year-stack-up-against-others
 

ColoREDo said:
Heupel at UCF has never lost a game as head coach.
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There is a real concern among UCF fans about Heupel is can he recruit the skill players he needs to run his offense. KZ out and no real back up to Mack Jr could send UCF back to an average AAC team.

Heupel has done really well with what he was given...
 
FLA4NEB said:
There is a real concern among UCF fans about Heupel is can he recruit the skill players he needs to run his offense. KZ out and no real back up to Mack Jr could send UCF back to an average AAC team.

Heupel has done really well with what he was given...
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Just like Solich..when Osbornes players were gone he was toast. Same thing will happen to Heupel. Look at their recruits this year...not so good. Only thing that might save him is a weak conference
 
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jmatlock said:
Just like Solich..when Osbornes players were gone he was toast. Same thing will happen to Heupel. Look at their recruits this year...not so good. Only thing that might save him is a weak conference
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Or, more accurately, when Osborne’s assistants retired on the job, refused to recruit, and couldn’t be fired by Solich until a 6-6 season...he was toast.
 
FeelLikeAStranger said:
Or, more accurately, when Osborne’s assistants retired on the job, refused to recruit, and couldn’t be fired by Solich until a 6-6 season...he was toast.
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Well he got his own coaches at Ohio, and although he has done a decent job no power five school ever came calling...just saying
 
Seth said:
Frost jumped 46 spots. Nebraska finished 103rd in 2017 under Riley and 57th this year. During his first year at UCF he jumped 48 spots.



Obviously a lot can change year over year, but Nebraska is power ranked ahead of every team on their schedule next year except for 4: Ohio St, Purdue, Wisconsin and Iowa. I maintain that 8 wins is the barometer of success next year. And I feel like Nebraska should be able to steal one or two wins next year. So I don't think 10 wins is out of the question.

https://hailvarsity.com/s/5591/hot-reads-how-does-frosts-first-year-stack-up-against-others
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Good post. Thanks for doing the work. It helps keep things in perspective. Our trajectory is clearly upward.
 
4-2 with competitive games against OSU and Iowa was a solid finish. 7 or 8 wins is a reasonable expectation for 2019. Far too many fans expected 9 or 10 wins this year and a fair number seem to think that we will dominate Iowa going forward despite the fact they controlled the LOS and Frost himself said they are bigger and stronger.

Until NU manages to recruit and/or develop some all-conference caliber talent on the O and D lines, they won't be dominating anyone in the top half of the league. That takes time. IMO, 2020 is the first year that NU is a real threat to win the West.
 




Until NU manages to recruit and/or develop some all-conference caliber talent on the O and D lines, they won't be dominating anyone in the top half of the league. That takes time. IMO, 2020 is the first year that NU is a real threat to win the West.
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I agree with this. WAY too many fans thought 9-10 wins was easy this past year, and I'm already seeing the same chatter for next year. While the schedule next year seems FAR easier than this years was (OSU, NW, Wisc, Iowa all at home, Colorado will be reeling with a brand new coaching staff) I think the growing pains will still be around for another year and 8-4/7-5 seems very possible.

Watch out in 2020-2021. Imagine what AM will be doing as a senior...
 
Just a quick glance at S&P+ ratings from 2017, they appear to be pretty bizarre. NU at #103, lower than any team we lost to and way lower than two teams we beat?

Arkansas State #24
Purdue #41
Nebraska #103

I can't say I trust this stuff. I'd use Sagarin. (in short, Frost's Y/y comparison looks okay in Sagarin, not totally awesome but fine.)
 
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jmatlock said:
Well he got his own coaches at Ohio, and although he has done a decent job no power five school ever came calling...just saying
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You skipped right over him hiring young new Nebraska coaches to do the job, but being fired by an idiot and a whole buch of idiots standing behind that idiot with pitchforks and torches.

Just saying....
 



First year

TO: 9-2-1 (Bowl game)
Frank: 9-4 (Bowl game)
Bill: 5-6 (No bowl)
Bo: 9-4 (Bowl game)
Mike: 6-7 (Bowl game)
Scott: 4-8 (no bowl)
 
Scott in NY said:
I agree with this. WAY too many fans thought 9-10 wins was easy this past year, and I'm already seeing the same chatter for next year. While the schedule next year seems FAR easier than this years was (OSU, NW, Wisc, Iowa all at home, Colorado will be reeling with a brand new coaching staff) I think the growing pains will still be around for another year and 8-4/7-5 seems very possible.

Watch out in 2020-2021. Imagine what AM will be doing as a senior...
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So what 5 teams on our schedule do you think are likely to beat Nebraska next season? Just curious.... I believe we go into conference play 3-0 so we'd need to lose to 5 teams in conference? Or in other words we will have another losing record in conference next season?
 
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