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Current analytical projection
- Thread starter BGRed
- Start date
Damn, you are a argumentative sonuva, ain'tcha! Hell, you don't even believe we are in with 23 wins.... Probably? I will, right now, guarantee we are in with 23 wins. Also, even if we hit the 20 win mark, and as long as we are still the #4 team in the B1G, we have a real shot at it, as most pundits, are saying that they will be taking 4 teams from the B1G 10. So, there is that possibility(not guaranteed of course, but possible). 2 - 3 weeks ago, I felt like 20 was the number, but, now, I honestly think it's 22 to get in on the last 4 in, 23 is a lock, imho.
Check out BGRed's post above yours.
23 is not a lock. As I said, "probably." You'd then be hoping teams that don't have a shot to get into the tournament don't then run the table in their conference tourney and get an auto-bid. Every year, a team or two (or three) steals a bid from a team more worthy. It just happens. Doesn't mean it will happen to Nebraska with 23 wins. But yes, I'd say we'd likely be bumping bellies if Nebraska wins 23.
It's also highly unlikely Nebraska ends with 20 wins and gets the 4-seed -- which I said, would probably mean going 3-3 the rest of the regular season. Michigan would likely overtake NU for the #4 spot if that happened.
The problem for Nebraska isn't win total or conference standing. It's quality wins. We don't have much in that regard.
Nebraska is 0-5 against what is considered Group One opponents (those are teams ranked in the top 30 RPI when played at home, top 50 on a neutral court, or top 75 on the road). Nebraska doesn't have a win in this category.
Michigan is a Group Two win. They have an RPI currently at 32. A solid win for sure. But there isn't much else to grab onto. Honestly -- if Nebraska hadn't beaten Michigan, we wouldn't even be having this discussion.
The other issue is that our remaining regular season schedule doesn't offer quality wins. Maryland is our best remaining opponent -- and currently their RPI is just below ours. In other words, Nebraska will be hurt much more by losing a regular season game or two than by winning 5 or 6. There's very little room for error when your schedule isn't difficult. Ideally, Nebraska wins 5 or 6 of the remaining regular season games then wins 1 or 2 in the conference tournament -- which would likely be a quality win or two and significantly add to the resume.
Yes, as long as Nebraska keeps doing what they have been doing, they have a good chance of making the Dance. But slip up a couple times, and they are in trouble.
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I don't rely much on that analytical stuff, as it changes daily. IF, and I say IF, we hit the 23 win mark during the regular season, we are locked into the #4 spot in the B1G, and just about everywhere I have read, the B1G is sending no less than 4 teams to the dance, we are locked in, if we win out. Guaranteed. Okay, my opinion, but, I'm personally guaranteeing it....
I have to think, that if, when, we beat Minnesota on the road, the only game left that I see as a struggle is PSU. I think we smack Illinois around on the road myself. I really believe that we have that confidence that we haven't had in years, on top of having the talent to pull these victories off. Time will tell, but, I honestly feel that we get the invite, no matter what some computer says.
And that is why NU needs them to keep winning.
And Michigan loss last night. According to ESPN, UM fell to #38. If Michigan can't beat Ohio State, it's doubtful their RPI will rise back into the top 30, which mean's NU will have zero Group One wins.
This just goes to show that NU has no margin for error. I would even say at this point, NU needs to win out (including the Maryland game). Certainly doable, but the resume is paper thin at this point, and that doesn't include any bid stealing in conference tournaments. Fans need to root for Cincy & Wichita State, Rhode Island, Nevada and probably MTSU and Buffalo to all win their tournaments.
We will win all the games left on the schedule. This team is gelling more and more, as each game is being played down the stretch. They know they are worthy, and that will get them over the top in every game. Look out, psu! You are last on the list, and you will get the full gamut from the Huskers!
GO BIG RED!!!
Onward to The Dance!!
GO BIG RED!!!
Onward to The Dance!!
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The guy on the Big Show on BTN last night made a good point. If NU wins out and finishes 23-8 they will be 14-4 in conference that is 10 games over .500 He didn't think that there was any way they could keep them out of the tournament with that type of conference record.
We will win all the games left on the schedule. This team is gelling more and more, as each game is being played down the stretch. They know they are worthy, and that will get them over the top in every game. Look out, psu! You are last on the list, and you will get the full gamut from the Huskers!
GO BIG RED!!!
Let's DO IT!!!!!!!!!!!!
They aren’t going to leave us out with 23 wins.
