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Current analytical projection

Discussion in 'Men's Basketball' started by BGRed, Jan 7, 2018.

  1. BGRed

    BGRed Starter 15 Year Member

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    There are quite a few 'bracket project' and mathematical sites out there. I find this one to be one of the more interesting ones.

    https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tournament/bracketology/

    Some interesting projections from the site:

    Overall Record
    16.7 - 14.3

    Conference Record
    7.7 - 10.3


    Toughest Remaining Games (Losses)
    Date Opponent Loc Win Odds
    2/6 Minnesota Away 16.3%
    1/22 Ohio State Away 16.9%
    1/12 Penn State Away 18.5%
    1/29 Wisconsin Away 25.6%
    2/18 Illinois Away 29.4%
    1/18 Michigan Home 34.4%
    2/13 Maryland Home 40.0%
    1/24 Rutgers Away 41.8%
    2/25 Penn State Home 44.6%
    Easiest Remaining Games (Wins)
    Date Opponent Loc Win Odds
    2/10 Rutgers Home 71.1%
    1/15 Illinois Home 58.7%
    2/20 Indiana Home 57.1%
    1/27 Iowa Home 56.9%
    1/9 Wisconsin Home 54.2%

    Power Ratings
    Rating Points Above Avg.
    Predictive 5.7
    Home 5.7
    Away 8.0
    Key Offensive Stats
    Stat Value
    Points/Game 74.6
    Avg Score Margin +3.6
    Assists/Game 14.9
    Total Rebounds/Gm 37.3
    Effective FG % 49.5%
    Off Rebound % 30.1%
    FTA/FGA 0.367
    Turnover % 14.1%
    Key Defensive Stats
    Stat Value
    Opp Points/Game 71.1
    Opp Effective FG % 47.1%
    Off Rebounds/Gm 10.6
    Def Rebounds/Gm 24.4
    Blocks/Game 5.9
    Steals/Game 6.6
    Personal Fouls/Gm 17.8
     
  2. BGRed

    BGRed Starter 15 Year Member

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    Digging deeper, we are ranked 41st in offensive turnovers per possession at 16.2%, which is a very good, low number. Worst team is at 26.0%.

    Defensively, we are about middle of the pack at forcing turnovers, at 19.0% per possession (ranked 149th overall).

    I felt like we would have been in the game with Purdue if it wasn't for silly turnovers...thought I'd check out whether this was a chronic problem.



    Purdue is 58th in not turning the ball over and 159th at forcing turnovers.
     
  3. Red Don

    Red Don Water Boy 5 Year Member

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    KenPom is starting to come around!

    Their current prediction is:
    upload_2018-1-7_11-35-0.png

    One site has us as 4th seed in the NIT. (https://www.dratings.com/predictor/bracketology/)

    Pick up a couple more wins (over KenPom's projection) and we are probably a 'bubble' Team. One or two in the B1G Tournament @ Madison Square Garden and we should be 'N'. '

    Huskers seem to be picking up Steam. I don't think anyone in conference looks forward to playing us (especially @ PBA!)
     
    huskermike likes this.
  4. BGRed

    BGRed Starter 15 Year Member

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    Updated from advanced analytics (link in OP) - on an uptick from the OP; but, we still have some work to do to earn our way into the big dance mix.

    Overall Record
    17.4 - 13.6

    Conference Record
    8.4 - 9.6


    Toughest Remaining Games (Losses)
    Date Opponent Loc Win Odds
    1/22 Ohio State Away 11.6%
    2/6 Minnesota Away 20.0%
    1/29 Wisconsin Away 27.9%
    2/18 Illinois Away 31.3%
    1/18 Michigan Home 31.9%
    1/24 Rutgers Away 41.1%
    2/13 Maryland Home 41.4%

    Easiest Remaining Games (Wins)
    Date Opponent Loc Win Odds
    2/10 Rutgers Home 70.4%
    1/27 Iowa Home 59.3%
    2/20 Indiana Home 55.2%
    2/25 Penn State Home 50.2%


    Key Offensive Stats
    Stat Value
    Points/Game 73.5
    Avg Score Margin +3.2
    Assists/Game 14.2
    Total Rebounds/Gm 36.6
    Effective FG % 48.8%
    Off Rebound % 28.6%
    FTA/FGA 0.379
    Turnover % 13.9%
    Key Defensive Stats
    Stat Value
    Opp Points/Game 70.3
    Opp Effective FG % 46.7%
    Off Rebounds/Gm 10.1
    Def Rebounds/Gm 24.5
    Blocks/Game 5.9
    Steals/Game 6.5
    Personal Fouls/Gm 17.8
     
    huskermike and Red Don like this.
  5. Redrage

    Redrage Recruit

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    they have a chance to steal one of those projected home losses to a win tonight. I think they will get a win at Rutgers and need to steal 2 other away game projected losses. Then win all the projected wins. Tonight is big start towards the end goal.
     
    huskermike and Red Don like this.
  6. Huskerhunter

    Huskerhunter Red Shirt 5 Year Member

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    You called it!
     
    Redrage likes this.
  7. Redrage

    Redrage Recruit

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    it's still going to be a tough road to get one of those top 4 seeds for the BIG tourney but getting one of the top 6 seeds will still be good. you will still be playing someone you should beat. If Huskers can go to OSU and win, oh boy! just hope they dont turn around and give one back to Rutgers. I think going 1-1 on the road trip will be good, 0-2 is not going to get Huskers a top 6 seed but a 2-0 trip can really get Husker fan's dreams fired up. That Penn State loss really sucks!! can't wait to see the updated projections now
     
  8. Rainbow Dash

    Rainbow Dash It’s one thing to read about dragons... 2 Year Member

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    Last 5 games are very winnable. Rutgers, Maryland, @Illinois, Indiana, Penn State.

    Where we will (or won’t) make hay is in the next 5 games.

    @Ohio State
    @Rutgers
    Iowa
    @Wisconsin
    @Minnesota

    I think there is a pretty good chance we either go 3-2 or 2-3. If we can somehow go 3-2, it would put us at 17-9. That’s a pretty good position to enter the remaining 5 games. Going 2-3 would put us at 16-10, with a razor thin margin for error.

    It’s all about going 3-2 in this road game stretch.

    Side note- I think Indiana will collapse without Davis. Plus, they have a tough schedule down the stretch.
     
    ColoREDo likes this.
  9. Knight

    Knight Red Shirt 15 Year Member

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    I think Maryland is tougher then given credit for. They've had some injuries but still have talent and some experience. I know it is a home game, but I wouldn't count that as a win just yet. I don't know anything about Indiana, but they may be getting better too. Have to protect that home court though!
     
  10. BGRed

    BGRed Starter 15 Year Member

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    After update overnight, we're creeping slowly onto the bubble = B1G understandably not getting any love by the math gods.

    upload_2018-1-19_7-40-34.png

    Remaining games:

    Toughest Remaining Games (Losses)
    Date Opponent Loc Win Odds
    1/22 Ohio State Away 13.5%
    2/6 Minnesota Away 23.1%
    1/29 Wisconsin Away 31.0%
    2/18 Illinois Away 34.5%
    2/13 Maryland Home 44.3%
    1/24 Rutgers Away 44.3%

    Easiest Remaining Games (Wins)
    Date Opponent Loc Win Odds
    2/10 Rutgers Home 73.2%
    1/27 Iowa Home 62.8%
    2/20 Indiana Home 59.0%
    2/25 Penn State Home 53.5%
     
  11. NUinID

    NUinID Red Shirt 2 Year Member

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    I get what you are saying, I think 3-2 in that 5 game stretch is doable. Wisconsin and Minnesota really aren't playing very well right now. Those 2 and Iowa are the ones they have the best chance at. But if they play anywhere close to the way they played against Michigan last night I wouldn't count them out of any games down the stretch.
     
  12. Redrage

    Redrage Recruit

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    Let's see what happens this week with 2 away games. Need to be 1-1 no matter what or the shine might go away on this bright season. Giving away a game to Penn State and blowing a huge opportunity to Kansas hurts. There is no way we should have lost to a team like Penn State. Beating Michigan by 20 is big but it still counts the same in the standings as beating Illinois by 1. The only way to fix the Penn State loss is to beat OSU too, you really need two good wins to fix a bad loss. Finishing out 8-2 would help too but we will need more consistency to do that. nothing less than 1-1 this week or else start making plans for a first round home game in the NIT, do they still do games at home sites? It's been awhile since we even went to that.
     
  13. Redrage

    Redrage Recruit

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    we really need to stay in top 6 seeds, top 4 would be great but being in top 6 gets you the #11 vs #14 winner. the bottom 6 teams seem to be the teams that really having a bad season, not very good this year.
     
  14. skerBob

    skerBob Just another unsuspecting mammal

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    [​IMG]

    This projection says while we are at 14-7 now we will finish only 18-13. I am predict that we will win more the an four games. Instead of 4-6 in the last 10, I believe we are more likely to go 6-4. That will give us 20 wins and put us where we want to be.
     
    huskermike likes this.
  15. huskermike

    huskermike Cyber Traveler 10 Year Member

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    I like your prediction better than the projected. :nod:
     

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