Pattons "handler" was in New York during conference tournament and the Bucks told him 18th pick or better. Tough to turn that down.
I think he can just as easily slip into the second round if a few guys have some really strong games down the stretch of the tourney. That would make life a little less rosy.
Let me first say that one should take my assessment of NBA futures with a grain of salt....I would have laughed in your face if you told me Anthony Tolliver would have a career at all or that Korver would have been more than a role player, much less an All Star.
That said mid-to-late first round is what a lot of draft projections have had him at so that "18" is nothing new.
That 18 being "tough to turn down"...just from a financial aspect...may not actually be the case.
http://www.basketballinsiders.com/nba-salaries/nba-rookie-salary-scale-by-draft-year/
A lot will depend on what the scouts tell him he needs to work on and where, if he's successful at addressing those areas, he might end up next year. If the opinion is in the top 7 or 8 then there's not really any financial harm in waiting a year. At 18 he'd be guaranteed $1.5. At 8 he'd be guaranteed $2.5. He'd make up most of the "lost salary" from 2017/2018. At 6 or 7 he'd make it up entirely. And then there's the risk that he falls to the late first or 2nd. I think, barring injury, there's almost no doubt that he'd go higher next year than this.
He is still growing into his body. I've mentioned that throughout the season. He has shown flashes of things that have to have NBA scouts drooling. There was a play in the URI game where he started about 18' out on the wing...took two dribbles and was at the rim for a lay-up...which he missed. Missing it isn't a problem. In a couple years he'll just dunk it. The point is there are very few 20 year old 7 footers that can do that. There are relatively few NBA 7 footers of any age that can do that. He has show he can hit from 20'. Block shots. Etc. But he hasn't shown any of it, other than an ability to run the court, on a real consistent basis. He will be of zero value to an NBA team next year.
That last part (zero value) means he will either not play more than a few minutes a game or play in the D-league IMO. Does he want to ride a bus all season and play in Sioux Falls and Ft. Wayne?
The tangibles are fairly easy to predict once the scouts really break things down for him...where he will get drafted, about how much he'll sign for, what he can expect for his rookie season.
It's the other stuff that nobody I've heard from really knows. Does he like or hate school? No idea. Can he and his family wait a year to cash in? No idea. If there is real financial hardship NOW then he's gone. Does he like his college team/teammates? All indications are yes. Does the way he and his team finished the year leave a bad enough taste in his mouth that he wants to come back and erase that? I'd hope so.
When Mo went down JP's season tailed off with it to a degree. That probably isn't lost on NBA scouts. I think he's going to be really good in the NBA. And if he is then over the long haul forgoing that $1.5M next year will have no impact on his net worth by the time he signs that 2nd contract.
I have no idea what he's going to do. Some think it's cut and dried yes or cut and dried no. I think they are guessing in both cases. Hopefully, he's getting good advice from people who both KNOW what they are talking about and give a crap about him. Fortunately, Mac went through this very recently with Doug so it's not foreign territory. It's easy for me to say but college may be the last time he'll play the game for fun and without major politics/personality clashes/egos/etc. To a 20 year old he probably has no idea about that reality.
