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B1G 2018 All conference/Div 1 All Americans and their Recruiting ranking

Discussion in 'Recruiting' started by Bean, Nov 29, 2018.

  1. 2legit2quit

    2legit2quit Recruit 2 Year Member

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    I agree completely! if you have a 16th ranked class, but almost none of the top recruits stick around to contribute it can't be a success. It's just not that simple
     
  2. Bean

    Bean Grey Shirt 5 Year Member

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    :frost::Cheers: Here's to hoping that most if not all of HCSF's recruits stick around till the end of their eligibility even if they are candidates for the NFL draft they still stay.....like Wistrom and Peter said they did.

    "And when Grant and I both had the opportunity to leave after our junior years… if there was a different head coach there, maybe we would have done something else. But we wanted to go out as national champs, to send Coach Osborne out as a national champion coach, and I can’t definitely say we would have done that for anyone else."
     
  3. Bean

    Bean Grey Shirt 5 Year Member

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    Below are the NCAA Div 1 CFB All Americans with 247 Composite star rankings for each player:

    upload_2018-12-18_22-25-32.png
    upload_2018-12-18_22-25-8.png

    There are 52 Offensive players selected
    There are 44 Defensive players selected
    There are 16 Special Team players selected
    Total of 112 players selected.

    There are 11 five Stars Making up 10% of 2018 All American Team [6 on Offense, 4 on Defense, 1 on special teams]
    There are 29 four Stars Making up 26% of 2018 All American Team [16 on Offense, 13 on Defense]
    [4 and 5 Stars make up 36% of the team]
    There are 55 three Stars Making up 49% of 2018 All American Team [29 on Offense, 17 on Defense, 8 on Special Teams]
    There are 12 two Stars Making up 11% of 2018 All American Team [3 on offense, 6 on Defense, 3 on Special Teams]
    There are 4 with No Rank Making up 4% of 2018 All American Team [Included Walk on]
    There is one Walk On - Defense
     
    Last edited: Dec 22, 2018
  4. gardenjam

    gardenjam Red Shirt 2 Year Member

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    Thank you for sharing your hard work. Intersting stuff. But, did you take into account that there are less 5 stars nationally to begin with (out of high school) than 4 stars for instance? I don't follow numbers but aren't there more 3 star rated recruits than 4 star recruits nationally out of high school?
     
  5. BigMacHusker

    BigMacHusker Junior Varsity 10 Year Member

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    https://www.sbnation.com/college-football-recruiting/2018/1/26/16936186/recruiting-stars-rankings-high-school-football

     
  6. Bean

    Bean Grey Shirt 5 Year Member

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    This article kind of puts these percentages in perspective even thought its a few years old:
    https://www.sbnation.com/college-football-recruiting/2017/1/20/14330320/afc-nfc-championship-games-nfl-recruit-star-rating-ranking

    77 percent of the starters were rated two- or three-stars, or not rated at all.
    This is a stat that everyone will pounce on. 68 of the 88 starters not being four- or five-star recruits seems pretty substantial.

    Until you consider how rare four- and five-star recruits actually are.

    Each year, roughly 4,500 football players sign Division I scholarships. In 2010, the year from which most of the prospects in the 2014 draft came, 27 were rated as five-stars by Rivals.com. Five-stars are considered no-doubt, superstar-type players. There were 395 four-stars, a designation for very good players, and 1,644 three-stars, or good players. And 2,434 were rated as two-stars or not rated at all, meaning they are at the lowest levels of FBS (85-scholarship level) or FCS players (63-scholarship level).

    Five-stars make up less than one percent of Division I recruits, yet five percent of the AFC and NFC Championship starters.
    That doesn’t seem random. Five-stars make up 0.6 percent of all Division I scholarship recruits, but five percent of the starters. Thats an over-representation by eight times.

    Four-stars make up just nine percent of Division I recruits, yet 18 percent of the AFC and NFC Championship starters.

    Here’s how long their odds are to reach various recruiting ratings, using class of 2018 data from Rivals, if we settle on 300,000 football-playing seniors as a fair estimate:
    • 33 five-stars, or 0.01 percent of the class
    • 399 four-stars, or 0.13 percent of the class
    • 4 and 5 Stars made up 36% of the 2018 All American Team
    • 1,409 three-stars, or 0.47 percent of the class
    • 3 Stars make up 49% of the 2018 All American Team
    • 1,842 two-stars, or 0.61 percent of the class
    • 296,317 unrated, or 98.77 percent of the class
    • 2 Stars and those not ranked make up 15% of the 2018 All American Team
    This is significant when you compare the number of 4/5 stars ranked athletes each recruiting year and compare it to how many make the All American Team, i.e., 1 in 4.

    https://www.cougcenter.com/wsu-football-recruiting/2013/2/5/3956800/rivals-scout-espn-247-star-rating-system-national-signing-day
     
    Last edited: Jan 10, 2019
    Drum Monkey Robot likes this.
  7. Huskerthom

    Huskerthom All Legend 5 Year Member

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    I do not necessarily care what they do in the pros after college. Interesting statistic but.
    1. TFraz never made an NFL roster. Would your have traded him for any other QB?
    2. Barron Miles was too short to make an NFL roster yet became a legend in the CFL.

    The NFL is actually pretty stupid in some of their drafts. That QB is too short. That Doug Flutie guy could never make it in the NFL. Yet he did anyway. Now who did they draft very high? here is a nice list of guys with all of the right measurables though. https://sportsday.dallasnews.com/dallas-cowboys/cowboys/2017/06/28/top-10-quarterback-busts-last-25-years-johnny-manziel-rank

    The NFL is more enamored with measurables than anyone. One of the things that has made the Patriots successful is that they are the only team that ignores that crap and just looks for players.
     
  8. Bean

    Bean Grey Shirt 5 Year Member

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    https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/recruiting-by-the-numbers-why-the-sites-get-the-rankings-right/
    "Assessing Individual Rankings. Take All-Americans, for example, the best measure we have for assessing individual success at the college level. Over the past five years (from 2008 to 2012), 316 players have been named to at least one major All-America team. Of that number, only 42 of them -- barely 13 percent -- arrived on campus as can't-miss, five-star prospects according to Rivals.com. Only 81 of them (around 25 percent) were ranked among Rivals' top 100 prospects in their respective recruiting class."

    "By contrast, twice as many All-Americans in the same span (162, more than half of the total) were regarded as mere three-star prospects or worse. According to the gurus, the top dozen or so recruiting powers in the country should field more talented rosters than that by themselves, right? Only if your standard allows for zero margin for error, in which case you may as well stop reading."

    "Odds of Becoming an All-American, by Recruiting Ranking
    5–Star:
    1 in 4.
    Top 100: 1 in 6.
    4–Star: 1 in 16.
    3–Star: 1 in 56.
    2–Star: 1 in 127.
    All FBS Signees: 1 in 45.

    On the final count, the higher-ranked team according to the recruiting rankings won almost exactly two-thirds of the time (66.4 percent of the time, to be exact), and every "class" as a whole had a winning record against every class ranked below it every single year.

    So What? The evidence is overwhelming: Despite some obvious, anecdotal exceptions, on the whole recruiting rankings clearly are useful for creating a realistic baseline for expectations. But the narrower your focus, the less useful they will become.

    The massively hyped, five-star recruit headlining your team's next recruiting class may be an irredeemable bust; he is also many times more likely than a scrappy three-star to pan out as an All-American and move on to the next level."
     
    Last edited: Dec 21, 2018
  9. Native

    Native ToungeInCheek since 2010 5 Year Member

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    Good Stuff. Also, I think we should look at the numbers for the top 1/2 of the power 5 conferences or just power 5 conferences. Tail wags the dog quite a bit.
     
    Last edited: Dec 20, 2018
  10. Native

    Native ToungeInCheek since 2010 5 Year Member

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    My quick count gave me 16/112 as non-power 5 (14%)
     
  11. Huskerthom

    Huskerthom All Legend 5 Year Member

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    Here is the issue with your statistics. Once a coach proves himself as a winner. Any person who they offer gets a bump in Recruiting. So you might be a high 3 star in initial talent. Saban thinks you have something special. So he offers you. Boom you're a 4*. Nothing changed talent wise. Saban offered so now you are a 4 star. Now other high profile coaches offer you because Saban offered you and BOOM your a 5 star. Nothing changed talent wise. You are the same guy.

    As a result you sign with a top team. AL, OSU, GA, etc. They can not double or triple team you because there is another guy just like you next to you. Plus you have the best training facilities, top coaches etc. Boom you are an AA. Now you get drafted high because you also have the right measurables. Fact is there are probably another 50 guys who if given the same chance as you would have done the same.

    Put two equally talented guys out of HS. Put one at Alabama and one at Kansas. Who is more likely to become an all American? Who is more likely to get noticed by scouts and get drafted high? The guy at AL had better training, better coaching and better visibility.

    So now that All American gets into the NFL. He has a name so he serves his rookie contract with that bottom rung team. Now he is set money wise. Decides to go play for ont of the top teams for one of the top coaches. Boom he made it to the playoffs. So now you are their with a bunch of other 5 star guys who traveled a similar path.

    My point is that he became successful because he got the right breaks. Not JUST because he was talented. It is a self fulfilling prophecy.

    Now if HCSF is the coach we think he is and starts to win a lot of games. The guys he picks will start to be recognized as winners. So we will get more 4 and 5* guys. Mainly because Scott says they are 4 and 5* guys. Not because they are better than the guys he is picking now.
     
  12. Bean

    Bean Grey Shirt 5 Year Member

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    No doubt a player has a better chance to become an All American with a proven Football coach/program compared to one that isn't or who doesn't win many games. I haven't seen but a few times a player gets a supposed bounce because he signs with a popular coach. Most of these player get their ranking before they decide who they will sign with. Alabama and other top 5 teams sign allot of players early and big majority of those are already 4/5 star ranked. That's one of the reasons these teams are in the top 10 regularly because they can sign proven H.S. athletes year in and year out.
    https://247sports.com/Season/2020-Football/CompositeTeamRankings/

    Nebraska will get there I think but HCSF needs to build the program to where it was in the 90s, then we'll sign more 4/5 star athletes and win B1G championships. We will need to be patient.
     
    Last edited: Dec 20, 2018
  13. Huskerthom

    Huskerthom All Legend 5 Year Member

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    You misquoted me. I said they get the bump shortly after getting OFFERED. Which often happens prior to most of us knowing who they are. So when they actually commit you think they have always been considered a 5*. Most do not get bumps after comitting because that has already been factored in.
     
  14. FeelLikeAStranger

    FeelLikeAStranger Keeping it Brockmire 15 Year Member

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    We literally wont sign any “more” 5* until there are “more” that come from Nebraska. What are we averaging, 1-2 per decade?
     
  15. Bean

    Bean Grey Shirt 5 Year Member

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    Last "Consensus" 5 star who signed with NU was Lucky in 2005.
     
    Last edited: Dec 21, 2018

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