How closely dies Athlon's usually mimic the AP and coaches polls?
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Athlon preseason top 25, NU 19
- Thread starter Lavaman
- Start date
We’ve been getting jobbed by the BIG schedulers since we joined. Go look at the stretch of basketball games coming up soon. Every year there is a “Nebraska is the only team in the BIG that has to do .....” This year I think it’s 1st 5 games are away or something like that. Last year it was 0 or 1 Saturday home game. Back to football, we had to travel to OSU AND Wisconsin after each of their bye weeks? How often does that happen? Throw in our other crossovers and 2019 matches up pretty favorably to 2018, regardless of who is coaching.
8 total or reg season? I think 8 in the reg season and then win the bowl, unless we get over-matched for some reason. 9-4 record without blow-outs would likely be ranked. And imo 9 wins reg season is more likely than 7 or less.
Just to accurately point out the Basketball sched
This year the first five B1G games consist of 3 road and 2 home games.
If you toss out the two Dec games it is still 3 road and 2 home in the first five Conf games after Jan 1
As for Sat home games last year there were 2 non con and 2 Conf games.
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ShortSideOption
Guest
Unless we have the best coaches in the country, we will still have a ton of the same issues that plagued us last year. However, we are in year 2 of the system and the “tough games” are at home. I see 8 wins maybeeee 9. Things people were complaining about, we now have their backups that couldn’t beat them out starting. That’s not just an instant upgrade.
I agree with ***. I've never been persuaded that returning a lot of starters is necessarily good. If they weren't very good, even though starters, I'm not sure its good to think their return will be an automatic upgrade.
We're No. 1(9)!!
Agreed,that's why I'm at 8. I don't think 7 is very unrealistic either (7 is more likely than 9, IMO).
ShortSideOption
Guest
They’ve gotta get to at least 7 this year or I’ll be concerned.
The number 19 ranking is mostly a reaction to what Frost was able to do in his second year at UCF. It’s going to be difficult to crack the top 15 unless the defense is vastly improved next season.
They'll get to 7 in the regular season, I think that's nearly a given (minus serious injury issues). I think 8 is most likely. 9 regular season wins seems like a 20% chance to me.
Too many unknowns, hell, too many knowns!. Injuries, bad bounces, still learning on the staff (play calling/game management).
I like most of our starting guys, but once we get to the second team the drop off is drastic, IMO.
I'm not arguing that our schedule doesn't match up more favorably in 2019 than it did in 2018. However, I do not believe that this is the primary factor that caused Athlon to rank NU as #19 pre-season. I'm fairly confident that how this staff had the team playing at the end of the season had more to do with Athlon's willingness to go out on a limb and predict a team that went 4-8 two seasons in a row would break the top 25 in year 3. For example, if Riley had coached NU in 2019 and ended up going 4-8 for the second year in a row, I doubt Athlon would look at that situation and say "I think Riley is really going to have this program turned around in 2019". Under a 2019 Riley regime, the away games at Purdue and Minnesota would be just as daunting as the 2018 away games at Ohio State and Michigan.
I think Athlon's prediction is a combination of a vote of confidence in the Frost coaching staff, having a returning QB who appears to be the "real deal", and a schedule that seems likely to allow us a better win-loss record than last year. In any event, its all just off season fodder. There is a lot of work to be done and improvement needs to be made on both sides of the ball if we are to make Athlon's prediction a reality.
So bring on the Spring. (And I hope the men are making use of this offseason to make strength gains.)
That seems higher than I expected. I wouldn't be surprised if the offense performs at that level. However, I am less confident about the defense unless we get some kids to really step up. That is certainly possible - given that they'll actually get to work with a DC for 2 years in a row. That has to make a difference. It sure would be nice to be actually look forward to the rankings on a weekly basis again...
ShortSideOption
Guest
Ya, I think the ball will bounce our way a bit more in 2019 but that’s all speculation. What worries me is guys like Dedrick Young were looked at as a detriment last year but we are going to start someone that couldn’t beat him out in 2018. Ruud has his work cut out for him. According to PFF Barry and Young graded out basically the same. Pretty scary if you believe what the narrative on message boards are about Young. Who replaces Morgan? Can Washington be the bell cow like Ozigbo? Who is playing NG? Who replaces Gifford? Can Ferguson finally stay healthy? Who replaces our top 3 safeties who are graduated? Who plays center?
Year 2 of an offensive and defensive system with a returning starting QB eases all those questions for me. But 19 is too high.
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19 may be too high right now, but the Top 25 is littered with 4 loss (and now 5 loss) teams. Some of it will depend on HOW we win and lose, not to mention WHO our wins and losses come against, but I don't think it's completely unreasonable.
I wouldn't put Nebraska that high in a preseason poll... need to earn it.
