2019 is our coming out party

[Hville]

First of all, I didn't type anything whereby I emphatically stated Nebraska would go 6-6 in 2019. H-Ville asked who are the 3 or 4 teams that beat Nebraska next year. I simply provided some logic as to some teams that have a probability of beating Nebraska and of course I don't pump the sunshine. 7-5 or 8-4 is a reasonable expectation. Everyone is so damn far-sighted in looking at the schedule and spewing crap such as "should win" and filling the air with inaccurate data that they don't look at the issues on Nebraska's side.

I would argue that the ability to look at the issues on Nebraska's sides goes hand in hand with looking at our opponents issues also. I doubt your predictions of them probably winning next year based on a few of their key returning starters and how many times they have beat us under the past coaches provides any more accurate data. I'm not going to look it up but it wouldn't surprise me if we had more returning starters than some of those teams and thus even less issues.

 

[bilsker]

First of all, I didn't type anything whereby I emphatically stated Nebraska would go 6-6 in 2019. H-Ville asked who are the 3 or 4 teams that beat Nebraska next year. I simply provided some logic as to some teams that have a probability of beating Nebraska and of course I don't pump the sunshine. 7-5 or 8-4 is a reasonable expectation. Everyone is so damn far-sighted in looking at the schedule and spewing crap such as "should win" and filling the air with inaccurate data that they don't look at the issues on Nebraska's side.

I looked at what nu has coming back and how they did against those teams DESPITE the issues they had. There is nothing wrong with saying "should"...nothing wrong with expectstions.

Nu SHOULD beat Minny and NW based on what we know now. Granted, things can change. The NW qb could be better than the dude at bama. Adrian could decide to become a monk.

We are all guessing now obviously. But I expect those games that nu missed by an play or two to mostly go our way next time around. In no way do I EXPECT 11-1. But I will be pretty upset with 6-6 baring a rash of injuries to the wrong guys. 9-3 is totally attainable IMO. Hell they were 3 plays and a missing qb for a game from 8-4 this year. Nu doesn't need to be a ton better next year than they were in the final 6 this year to reach that number.

 

[bilsker]

Me and h'ville
sitting in a tree...

 

[One Hit Wonder]

To @Hville and @bilsker:

Obviously we are engaging in the joy and frustration of off-season banter and it will be a very long off-season. I love to drink the Kool-Aid as much as the next Husker fan but experience over time has taught me to be a little more realistic. And I too, in my competitive demeanor, believe Nebraska "should be" beating the holy hell out of Minnesota, Northwestern, Iowa, Colorado, et al with regularity simply because I'm a Nebraska fan.

It is true that many team's on Nebraska's schedule are faced with some tough issues with respect to roster and depth chart similar to Nebraska's. Playing the "we should win these games" in the off-season evolves into full-blown expectations and when the results of "should win" games turn into losses, the irrationality of fans boils over and we hear things like "Chinander has to go." Or worse, Nebraska beats S. Alabama in Game 1 and Martinez injures his knee walking off the field and Nebraska goes 2-9 to finish the season. Then the discussion turns into "...what could have been."

Anyway, the basis and perspective of my position is that Nebraska is razor thin at a lot of positions on both O and D. 2019 "could" turn out to be a very good season and I will be very excite about that. However, with the issues at depth and overall experience, Nebraska is still learning how to play the game under Frost & Co and they are still figuring out what it takes to win. They're still learning a new offense and defense with a depleted roster so I am tempering my expectations.

 

[cthusker]

To @Hville and @bilsker:

Nebraska beats S. Alabama in Game 1 and Martinez injures his knee walking off the field and Nebraska goes 2-9 to finish the season. Then the discussion turns into "...what could have been."

That statement could probably apply to 80 to 90% of most P5 teams with an exceptional starting QB imo. VERY few teams have back up QB's like Bama... period. If they are good enough to start elsewhere they tend to transfer so they can get playing time. So of course if AM were to go down early on (god forbid) we're probably not going to have a great season. DUH.... no kidding.

However the same can be said if we have minimal injuries to our starters and of course AM stays healthy. I believe most here are looking realistically and based on last season only see a few teams that MIGHT beat the Huskers. We have a very favorable schedule, an exceptional QB, an exceptional coaching staff, several transfers that look excellent and another year in the Scott Frost system. Our S&C should be much improved over the winter which should really help. I don't believe it takes 4 years of S&C to start showing a lot of progress? We also will have almost all the players buying into the new coaches and system.

Combine all the positives and I believe the Huskers have a very good chance at a 9-3 or 10-2 regular season. There's more reasons to expect a big improvement over this year then their's not imo......

 

[Hville]

To @Hville and @bilsker:

Obviously we are engaging in the joy and frustration of off-season banter and it will be a very long off-season. I love to drink the Kool-Aid as much as the next Husker fan but experience over time has taught me to be a little more realistic. And I too, in my competitive demeanor, believe Nebraska "should be" beating the holy hell out of Minnesota, Northwestern, Iowa, Colorado, et al with regularity simply because I'm a Nebraska fan.

It is true that many team's on Nebraska's schedule are faced with some tough issues with respect to roster and depth chart similar to Nebraska's. Playing the "we should win these games" in the off-season evolves into full-blown expectations and when the results of "should win" games turn into losses, the irrationality of fans boils over and we hear things like "Chinander has to go." Or worse, Nebraska beats S. Alabama in Game 1 and Martinez injures his knee walking off the field and Nebraska goes 2-9 to finish the season. Then the discussion turns into "...what could have been."

Anyway, the basis and perspective of my position is that Nebraska is razor thin at a lot of positions on both O and D. 2019 "could" turn out to be a very good season and I will be very excite about that. However, with the issues at depth and overall experience, Nebraska is still learning how to play the game under Frost & Co and they are still figuring out what it takes to win. They're still learning a new offense and defense with a depleted roster so I am tempering my expectations.

Typically I'm not one of the Kool-Aid guys either. And 11-1 isn't my prediction. What I stated was I believe with a healthy AM we are probably a favorite in 11 games. I was basing that off our schedule, where we play the game, what I believe our record will be at the time of every game and what the opponents likely record will be. For the record I'm going with 9-3.

 

[One Hit Wonder]

Typically I'm not one of the Kool-Aid guys either. And 11-1 isn't my prediction. What I stated was I believe with a healthy AM we are probably a favorite in 11 games. I was basing that off our schedule, where we play the game, what I believe our record will be at the time of every game and what the opponents likely record will be. For the record I'm going with 9-3.

Yep we're all good brother. I'm going with a prediction of 7-5 or 8-4 and anything better I will conjure up the spirit of my college days and beer bong a strong mix of Kool-Aid in the form of fruit punch and vodka with you.

 

[Middle-aged_Ball_Coach]

Interesting that you would include Minnesota as it was one of the games we won this year quite handily. And Iowa we have at home.

Mn can surprise some folks, ask Wisc in their Rival game. Home isnt what it use to be. Again, all depends on the D

I think we have to be careful about the line of thinking in which we assume because we beat one team easily this year that we'll win again next year. Each new season is different. Under the same logic we should expect to lose to Wisconsin again, amongst other teams.

Minnesota and Nebraska both struggled for much of the season. Then something finally clicked and both improved late. We happened to play them before their turnaround.

We are still turning our roster over. We've got some talented guys that the previous regime recruited but we're had massive attrition too. Just look at the 2017 class. It's already half gone. And the only four star from that class remaining is somewhere on a milk carton. If that class was retroactively ranked it'd probably be in the 70s or something. We don't have as much of a talent edge over others in our conference as many assume...certainly not amongst our most veteran classes. We need a couple more cycles to really be where we need to be in terms of roster distribution.

Have you watched Minnesota lately? We didn't see the same team. Ibrahim didn't play against us, and he's the heart of their offense. Their defense doesn't look like the same players since they switched DCs. Minnesota is a hot team right now that nobody would want to play. They also are overwhelmingly loaded with young players. They lose very little.

I still hope/think/expect that we'll beat them, but the game is in Minnesota, and we struggled to beat them this year. I don't understand how anyone can look at them, right now, and chalk that game up as an easy win.

 

[Hville]

When I looked at schedules here is what I came up with regarding my thoughts on how it would play out if the favorites won every game and to a certain extent why I think we would be the favorite. Obviously the favorites don't win all the time so its not my prediction.

Southern Alabama. Pretty much a no brainer and we will come out 1-0

Colorado. I'm going to call this a tough one to pick because its out there. I'm still gonna say that with a new coach and such Nebraska is a slight favorite. 2-0

Northern Illinois. At home we are favored. 3-0 and become ranked

Illinois. Its on the road but its still Illinois and we will be favored. 4-0

Ohio State. It is at home but its still Ohio State. They will be favored and we drop to 4-1

Northwestern. Northwestern benefited from a favorable conference schedule last year along with a lot of down west teams and a Nebraska melt down. Its at Nebraska this year and by the time they play us they will have already played Stanford, Michigan State and Wisconsin. They are likely to have 2-3 losses. We will be favored at home and move to 5-1

Minnesota. Yes it has been an up and down team that has given us a few problems. Their schedule is favorable with only having played Purdue and Fresno State on the road. They are likely to have one or two losses and I see us being favored in spite of it being on the Road. 6-1

Indiana Favored and win going to 7-1

Purdue This one is on the road which gives them the advantage. However.....they already would have played TCU, Minnesota, Iowa and Penn State. Likely to have a couple of losses which still has Vegas giving us the nod. We go to 8-1

Wisconsin. A 9-1 Nebraska team at home going against a Wisconsin team that already played USF, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Ohio State and Iowa. Likely a minimum of 2 losses and could be 3.

Maryland yes its on the road but a 9-1 top ten Nebraska team will be favored. 10-1

Iowa Obviously a thorn in our side but we are top 10 and 10-1. Iowa will have already played Iowa State, Michigan, Penn State, Purdue, Minnesota, Northwestern and Wisconsin. They will probably have been the underdog in at least 4 of those games.

So there it be folks. The path to 11-1 assuming we keep our Qb healthy and we win all the games that vegas says we should. ​

 

[Hville]

Have you watched Minnesota lately? We didn't see the same team. Ibrahim didn't play against us, and he's the heart of their offense. Their defense doesn't look like the same players since they switched DCs. Minnesota is a hot team right now that nobody would want to play. They also are overwhelmingly loaded with young players. They lose very little.

I still hope/think/expect that we'll beat them, but the game is in Minnesota, and we struggled to beat them this year. I don't understand who anyone can look at them, right now, and chalk that game up as an easy win.

I'm not chalking anything up as an easy win. I'm strictly going off who I think will be favored and the theoretical impact of the favorites winning every game. My only point is trying to point out our schedule sets up very nicely for us next year.

 

[Middle-aged_Ball_Coach]

This is a lay-up. Teams with a good probability to beat Nebraska:

1. Ohio St: Talent across the board.

2. Northwestern: New 5-star QB; lots of confidence from 2018 and are 3-1 in Lincoln since Nebraska joined the Big 10 and have won 3 of the last 4.

3. AT Minnesota: In the 11-1 thread I said let's see how they do in their bowl game. Lots of young & confident talent on the roster. The MN game marks the 7th game in a row for Nebraska and they're playing them on the road.

4. AT Purdue: Brohm is back; so is R. Moore. J. Sindelar (QB) is as good as Blough; perhaps better since he beat out Blough until his knee let out on him.

5. Wisconsin: Nebraska has looked like the School of Blind & Drunk Monkeys going against Wisconsin since joining the Big 10. Until they prove otherwise, no one can provide any basis for thinking Nebraska will beat them.

6. Iowa: Similar to #5. Lost 4 in a row and 5 of 6 to the Hawkeyes. For as much as people want to put Iowa and Ferentz down, they know how to beat Nebraska.

A couple of other items:

1. Playing "at home" doesn't mean squat until they re-establish the advantage.
2. The Big 10 West isn't simply stagnating while Nebraska is getting better.

This is a great list, and it doesn't include other teams which could create matchup problems for us, such as Colorado, Indiana, and Maryland. Say what you want, Colorado beat us last year in Lincoln, and they have everyone back. It's impossible to predict due to the coaching change, but you shouldn't be high on optimism that the new coach is worse, and that they won't show up.

As for Indiana and Maryland, these are NOT bad teams. Maryland had to deal with more distractions than any team in the country, yet they still barely missed being bowl eligible. We seem to think so highly of the fact that Nebraska played Ohio State close, yet Maryland should have beat them. Make that 2-point conversion and Maryland is in a bowl game, and we aren't so confident about that game being a gimme. Did anyone watch Indiana this year? Did you seem them play Michigan? If they had more depth, they could have won that game. Purdue was barely able to beat them on the last game of the year when bowl eligibility was on the line for both, and I think that Purdue is going to give Auburn all that it can handle.

Guys, showing up with a red "N" on your helmet no longer means that other teams cower in fear and don't play. Our fans have got to get past that mindset. If Frost wins 10 games, he should win coach of the year awards, again. I'm not saying that we won't be championship caliber eventually, maybe even soon, but you have to be realistic about where we are, and where our competition is.

 

[Middle-aged_Ball_Coach]

Well you are certainly seeing something different than I am if you think all those teams are highly probable to beat us.

So you are going with 6-6. care to place a wager?

OSU? Sure. But even as a national title contender they struggled with NU this year. This year I conceeded this one before the season. Not this time.

NW? They won't be BETTER than last year in all likelihood. Nobody knows how their QB will be regardless of his 5 stars. Too lazy to look it up...are they replacing their RB? NU had these guys beat and blew it. Not next year.

Minny? Should win this game.

Purdue? Obviously has the potential to be tough but I'll hold out pumping them up til I see what they have at QB.

Wisco? They'll be starting a true frosh QB. Taylor and Deal graduate.

Iowa? The history doesn't matter. Only the now. And their now will be starting a new QB. And in Lincoln.

To your "couple others".

1. Home absolutely matters. The advantage is already there. It will only grow.
2. We'll see about this one. There will be ebbs and flows.

This thread is starting to feel like one of those arguments that I used to have with crazy ex-girlfriends where I said something, and they "quoted" back to me how I had "made them feel," and my actual words weren't supposed to matter. @One Hit Wonder did not say that we'd go 6-6, or that we'd probably lose to those 6 teams. His exact words were that they had a "good probability" of beating us. That's a subjective phrase, but if you think that we're a lock to win 5 of those 6 games and go 11-1, yes, I absolutely would make that bet with you. Do I think that we'll be better than 6-6 in 2019? Yes, I do. I expect us to go to a bowl game, and I would pick 8-4 as our over/under record for the regular season.

In the Big 8 we played three teams--Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State--who NEVER beat Osborne. Those days are over. Even in those years that feel like the glory days, we'd still get beat occasionally by Colorado, Missouri, or Iowa State. With our non-conference schedule we basically had 6 all-but-guaranteed wins, plus 2-3 from CO, MO, and IA State. Those days are over.

We are now in a situation where there isn't a team on our schedule besides South Alabama who will be a long shot at going to a bowl. Look over the schedules of our opponents for next year and identify how many teams you would bet against going to a bowl. Northern Illinois should be down, but they are a bowl team this year, and they have a good shot at going again next year, depending on what happens in the MAC. Indiana and Maryland are likely to win at least 6 games next year if either one can beat us. Even Illinois barely missed out this year, and they would have gone to a bowl if they had beat us. They have almost everyone back.

We could potentially end up playing 9-10 bowl teams next year, and we were 4-8 this year. We lost our top rusher, top receiver, several leading tacklers, and all but one Safety who saw playing time. If you seriously want to bet that we're going to win 10 or 11 games, I'll take your money. If Nebraska covers, I'll be happy to pay. If not, I'll be comforted by taking your money.

 

[Pops]

When I looked at schedules here is what I came up with regarding my thoughts on how it would play out if the favorites won every game and to a certain extent why I think we would be the favorite. Obviously the favorites don't win all the time so its not my prediction.

Southern Alabama. Pretty much a no brainer and we will come out 1-0

Colorado. I'm going to call this a tough one to pick because its out there. I'm still gonna say that with a new coach and such Nebraska is a slight favorite. 2-0

Northern Illinois. At home we are favored. 3-0 and become ranked

Illinois. Its on the road but its still Illinois and we will be favored. 4-0

Ohio State. It is at home but its still Ohio State. They will be favored and we drop to 4-1

Northwestern. Northwestern benefited from a favorable conference schedule last year along with a lot of down west teams and a Nebraska melt down. Its at Nebraska this year and by the time they play us they will have already played Stanford, Michigan State and Wisconsin. They are likely to have 2-3 losses. We will be favored at home and move to 5-1

Minnesota. Yes it has been an up and down team that has given us a few problems. Their schedule is favorable with only having played Purdue and Fresno State on the road. They are likely to have one or two losses and I see us being favored in spite of it being on the Road. 6-1

Indiana Favored and win going to 7-1

Purdue This one is on the road which gives them the advantage. However.....they already would have played TCU, Minnesota, Iowa and Penn State. Likely to have a couple of losses which still has Vegas giving us the nod. We go to 8-1

Wisconsin. A 9-1 Nebraska team at home going against a Wisconsin team that already played USF, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Ohio State and Iowa. Likely a minimum of 2 losses and could be 3.

Maryland yes its on the road but a 9-1 top ten Nebraska team will be favored. 10-1

Iowa Obviously a thorn in our side but we are top 10 and 10-1. Iowa will have already played Iowa State, Michigan, Penn State, Purdue, Minnesota, Northwestern and Wisconsin. They will probably have been the underdog in at least 4 of those games.

So there it be folks. The path to 11-1 assuming we keep our Qb healthy and we win all the games that vegas says we should. ​

If Wisc has three losses out of that run they will be a better team due to it just as NU was this past year.

 

[solesrfr]

...

Keep in mind that I thought a 10-2 type season was possible in 2018...

C

 

[Middle-aged_Ball_Coach]

I'm not chalking anything up as an easy win. I'm strictly going off who I think will be favored and the theoretical impact of the favorites winning every game. My only point is trying to point out our schedule sets up very nicely for us next year.

I think that our schedule next year has the potential to be one of the toughest in the country. Yes, it's nice that we dropped Michigan and Michigan State, but Maryland and Indiana should be .500 teams next year, and we still have Purdue. The B1G West should send a bunch of teams to bowls next year. I would pick Nebraska, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Minnesota to go to bowl games next year. If Northwestern and Illinois can show up for their non-conference games, they have decent chances, too. Colorado and Northern Illinois are wildcards because it will depend on how strong their conferences are. South Alabama is the only team that I'd bet will NOT make a bowl game. If we hadn't played the schedule that we just did, we would NOT be talking about this being a good schedule.