Heck, somebody will be right. And somebody will be wrong.
You can apply all sorts of metrics and some will be in NU's favor. And some won't.
The impossible metric is predicting what the committee will do with the bubble teams. What metrics they will weigh more heavily than others. It's a total guess on everyone's part at this point. If there was a set formula, we wouldn't need a committee.
Whether Nebraska has a 10% chance of making the dance or an 80% chance ... or somewhere in-between ... well, that's a guess too.
Here's my prediction: I don't know.
I do know there's no degree in bracketology.