This is an interesting one. Many months ago, the news about USC and UCLA moving to the Big 10 broke. The PAC commissioner, George Kliavkoff, went into damage control. 2022 is the Pac 12's window for the next round of media rights negotiations, so Kliavkoff went to his media partners to get "whisper numbers" on the value of the conference sans USC and UCLA. It was low. Very low. ESPN offered $16 million per year per school. It also required that all current Pac 12 members aside from USC and UCLA stay in the conference, or the amount was subject to reduction. Time for plan B: Talk to other conferences about a potential merger or affiliation. Yet the only viable options were the ACC and Big 12. There were a lot of complications with the ACC, and the Pac 12 presidents summarily voted down any merger or affiliation with the Big 12.
Meanwhile, the Big 12 and commissioner Brett Yormark surprised the Pac 12 - and everyone else - when he announced that the Big 12 would be working to renew their media deal a year early, effectively cutting in front of the Pac 12 in the grocery line. Instead of racing to get their own media deal done ahead of the Big 12, the Pac 12 was frozen. About all they did was start lobbing Twitter attacks on Brett Yormark. While the Pac 12 was trying to pick itself up off the mat, Yormark would do something no one thought remotely possible: Negotiate a 20% raise for the Big 12, AFTER UT and OU’s departure. About $31 million per Big 12 program, and about $49 million after various other secondary and tertiary media revenues. The ESPN portion of that deal also provides pro-rata (same amount) if the Big 12 adds ANY school. The Fox portion of the deal provides pro-rata if a P5 team is added. This is a massive provision. The Big 12's media deal was agreed to in October.
As of today, the Pac 12 still has no media deal. And ESPN is the only national media outlet still looking to fill some remaining inventory. The Pac 12 is now hoping that Amazon will enter the world of college football and, along with ESPN, come up with something financially that meets or beats the Big 12 deal. Even if Amazon decides to enter the college football market, exposure for the Pac 12 is going to be quite limited through Amazon, with it being a streaming-only service. The longer this plays out, the more in doubt that a deal close to the Big 12's is realistic. The Big 12 has far outperformed the Pac 12 this season in terms of TV viewers, creating an even bigger challenge. Is ESPN even willing to offer $16 million per school, after it has renegotiated a 6 year contract with the Big 12 that filled a chunk of its available inventory? Given that Amazon is currently laying off 10,000 employees, what are the chances that it commits a $ billion or more to enter a product that it knows zero about?
Brett Yormark clearly knee-dropped the Pac-12. He jumped in early, got a good deal done, and is now content to wait it out and see happens. The Pac 12 presidents couldn't stomach partnering up with the Big 12 schools, and that decision could be the final nail in the coffin. A merger with the Big 12 could have saved the rest of that conference.
Even if the Pac 12 somehow musters a dollar amount comparable to the Big 12, the terms of the Big 12's deal will likely be very attractive to Pac 12 schools debating a move. Pac 12 programs will have very limited exposure through the hopeful Amazon offer. I don't see any of the CA schools biting, but I could certainly see the four corners schools in play, as well as possibly Oregon and Washington. The future of the Pac 12 as we know it is probably toast. That's due not only to Brett Yormark, but the arrogance and short-sightedness of the Pac 12 presidents.
Meanwhile, the Big 12 and commissioner Brett Yormark surprised the Pac 12 - and everyone else - when he announced that the Big 12 would be working to renew their media deal a year early, effectively cutting in front of the Pac 12 in the grocery line. Instead of racing to get their own media deal done ahead of the Big 12, the Pac 12 was frozen. About all they did was start lobbing Twitter attacks on Brett Yormark. While the Pac 12 was trying to pick itself up off the mat, Yormark would do something no one thought remotely possible: Negotiate a 20% raise for the Big 12, AFTER UT and OU’s departure. About $31 million per Big 12 program, and about $49 million after various other secondary and tertiary media revenues. The ESPN portion of that deal also provides pro-rata (same amount) if the Big 12 adds ANY school. The Fox portion of the deal provides pro-rata if a P5 team is added. This is a massive provision. The Big 12's media deal was agreed to in October.
As of today, the Pac 12 still has no media deal. And ESPN is the only national media outlet still looking to fill some remaining inventory. The Pac 12 is now hoping that Amazon will enter the world of college football and, along with ESPN, come up with something financially that meets or beats the Big 12 deal. Even if Amazon decides to enter the college football market, exposure for the Pac 12 is going to be quite limited through Amazon, with it being a streaming-only service. The longer this plays out, the more in doubt that a deal close to the Big 12's is realistic. The Big 12 has far outperformed the Pac 12 this season in terms of TV viewers, creating an even bigger challenge. Is ESPN even willing to offer $16 million per school, after it has renegotiated a 6 year contract with the Big 12 that filled a chunk of its available inventory? Given that Amazon is currently laying off 10,000 employees, what are the chances that it commits a $ billion or more to enter a product that it knows zero about?
Brett Yormark clearly knee-dropped the Pac-12. He jumped in early, got a good deal done, and is now content to wait it out and see happens. The Pac 12 presidents couldn't stomach partnering up with the Big 12 schools, and that decision could be the final nail in the coffin. A merger with the Big 12 could have saved the rest of that conference.
Even if the Pac 12 somehow musters a dollar amount comparable to the Big 12, the terms of the Big 12's deal will likely be very attractive to Pac 12 schools debating a move. Pac 12 programs will have very limited exposure through the hopeful Amazon offer. I don't see any of the CA schools biting, but I could certainly see the four corners schools in play, as well as possibly Oregon and Washington. The future of the Pac 12 as we know it is probably toast. That's due not only to Brett Yormark, but the arrogance and short-sightedness of the Pac 12 presidents.
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