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The roster flip

S

ShortSideOption

Guest
Had a great conversation this weekend with some people that have some great tradition within the Nebraska football family. We started talking about things, and the "roster flip" that gets brought up so much here was brought up. I will leave some of what was said to privacy, but i'm curious the thoughts here now that over 70% of the roster is Frost guys.

For me, I think we flipped the heck out of the roster, and we are so young that a lot of these guys are learning how to be college student-athletes. I do think that's part of our issues, and guys like Cam Jurgens, Ethan Piper, Garrett Nelson, Nick Henrich, they will all be studs for us eventually. But you look around the country and see other schools not have the same issues. In fact, one of the big reasons we were so excited about Coach Frost was that he took an 0-12 team to an 13-0 team, ending the season beating Auburn. So much has to go right for you that you can't just luck into things like that, you have to be an outstanding coach. But it got me thinking when we were hashing this out this weekend, we have heard things like "UCF actually had more talent than us when they got there" or other things like that. It had me look into something....

I took a look at UCF 2016 and 2017 recruiting classes, and calculated how many starts those recruiting classes accounted for in the 2017 13-0 run:
2016 class:
Snelson - 10 starts
Johnson - 13 starts
Moore - 7 starts
Killins - 12 starts
Hill - 13 starts
2017 class:
Luyanda - 1 start
Davis - 13 starts
Anderson - 1 start
Hughes - 12 starts
Total 2017 starts from Frost recruiting classes - 82

It got me thinking, if UCF truly had more talent than what Frost saw when he was here, we had to be close to the 100s for starts from his 2018 and 2019 class, right?
2018 class:
Taylor-Britt - 7 starts
DWilliams - 1 start
Jurgens - 9 starts
2019 class:
Robinson - 9 starts
Total 2019 starts from Frost recruiting classes - 21

Disclaimer - I left Milton and Martinez out because Frost got his QB first year at both places, didn't need that skewing things one way or the other. Secondly, I realize i'm doing this experiment with 3 games left, so guys like Robinson, Jurgens, and Taylor-Britt probably gonna bring another 9 starts to things. I also know DWilliams would have been starting every game if not for getting hurt (but I didn't take that into account for UCF guys either).

So they had over 3 times the amount of starts, but let's just call it double since our season isn't over and someone could end up starting for us. Why is that? If UCF had more talent, why could more recruits come in and play right away for Frost? Are we not recruiting as well as they were at UCF? This list also doesn't include guys like Gabriel Davis who in his true freshman campaign in 2017 had 27 catches for 391 yards and 4 touchdowns.

I just found this fascinating because there's a lot of narratives out there, and they are all starting to overlap and cancel each other out. If UCF was that much better than Nebraska, why could he get twice as many starts out of his first recruiting classes? What did he say down there that resonated and got the team going that isn't working here?

Anyways, just found these stats interesting.
 
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Big South said:
I have to believe he is making sure to redshirt as many guys as possible this year knowing that this will be a process. Maybe hi mind set wasn't the same at UCF?
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I think that's a good point. He wanted a quick flip and go at UCF, for the most part. He knows he has a lot of runway in Lincoln with a 7 year contract.

But where's our Killins, Hughes, Johnson? Heck, he had a ton of guys first team all-conference year 2. Are we going to have anyone? Why could they improve Dredrick Snelson from 17 receptions/136 yards/2 touchdowns in 2016 to 10 starts in 2017 with 46 receptions/695 yards/8 touchdowns? We were begging for any WR to do that for us.

I just don't get the development lacking here and being extremely evident there.
 
I know Frost came into a team that was winless at UCF. But before that they had pretty good record for 4-5 years or so and there was some decent players there. I don't know what the situation was there that they had a winless season. Here coach Frost came into situation that had been trending downward for a while. At UCF he had to overcome one bad season as here it has been several.
 



ShortSideOption said:
Had a great conversation this weekend with some people that have some great tradition within the Nebraska football family. We started talking about things, and the "roster flip" that gets brought up so much here was brought up. I will leave some of what was said to privacy, but i'm curious the thoughts here now that over 70% of the roster is Frost guys.

For me, I think we flipped the heck out of the roster, and we are so young that a lot of these guys are learning how to be college student-athletes. I do think that's part of our issues, and guys like Cam Jurgens, Ethan Piper, Garrett Nelson, Nick Henrich, they will all be studs for us eventually. But you look around the country and see other schools not have the same issues. In fact, one of the big reasons we were so excited about Coach Frost was that he took an 0-12 team to an 13-0 team, ending the season beating Auburn. So much has to go right for you that you can't just luck into things like that, you have to be an outstanding coach. But it got me thinking when we were hashing this out this weekend, we have heard things like "UCF actually had more talent than us when they got there" or other things like that. It had me look into something....

I took a look at UCF 2016 and 2017 recruiting classes, and calculated how many starts those recruiting classes accounted for in the 2017 13-0 run:
2016 class:
Snelson - 10 starts
Johnson - 13 starts
Moore - 7 starts
Killins - 12 starts
2017 class:
Luyanda - 1 start
Davis - 13 starts
Anderson - 1 start
Hughes - 12 starts
Total 2017 starts from Frost recruiting classes - 69

It got me thinking, if UCF truly had more talent than what Frost saw when he was here, we had to be close to the 100s for starts from his 2018 and 2019 class, right?
2018 class:
Taylor-Britt - 7 starts
DWilliams - 1 start
Jurgens - 9 starts
2019 class:
Robinson - 9 starts
Total 2019 starts from Frost recruiting classes - 21

Disclaimer - I left Milton and Martinez out because Frost got his QB first year at both places, didn't need that skewing things one way or the other. Secondly, I realize i'm doing this experiment with 3 games left, so guys like Robinson, Jurgens, and Taylor-Britt probably gonna bring another 9 starts to things. I also know DWilliams would have been starting every game if not for getting hurt (but I didn't take that into account for UCF guys either).

So they had over 3 times the amount of starts, but let's just call it double since our season isn't over and someone could end up starting for us. Why is that? If UCF had more talent, why could more recruits come in and play right away for Frost? Are we not recruiting as well as they were at UCF? This list also doesn't include guys like Gabriel Davis who in his true freshman campaign in 2017 had 27 catches for 391 yards and 4 touchdowns.

I just found this fascinating because there's a lot of narratives out there, and they are all starting to overlap and cancel each other out. If UCF was that much better than Nebraska, why could he get twice as many starts out of his first recruiting classes? What did he say down there that resonated and got the team going that isn't working here?

Anyways, just found these stats interesting.
Click to expand...

Well, Frost and Co. are betting there future on basically red shirting this whole class. We will see if the strategy works. PJ Fleck I think went the other way. I haven't looked up anything, but I think he played a lot of true freshman early and took his lumps. He is now seeing the fruits of that.

I don't think Frost playing in the B1G, which a big boy O-line/D-line conference, thought any of his linemen were ready to play. I am not sure why he didn't play more Frosh skill players. I do see he has moved Hickman on the latest depth chart to WR. Maybe he is trying to get more size on the field. Maybe they can run an RPO slant with him. Haven't seen that all year.

I think their feeling, and this is just my opinion, that the AAC is a much easier conference to get young guys on the field early and playing. The B1G is not nearly as easy. The player needs to be really exceptional.
 
NUinID said:
Well, Frost and Co. are betting there future on basically red shirting this whole class. We will see if the strategy works. PJ Fleck I think went the other way. I haven't looked up anything, but I think he played a lot of true freshman early and took his lumps. He is now seeing the fruits of that.

I don't think Frost playing in the B1G, which a big boy O-line/D-line conference, thought any of his linemen were ready to play. I am not sure why he didn't play more Frosh skill players. I do see he has moved Hickman on the latest depth chart to WR. Maybe he is trying to get more size on the field. Maybe they can run an RPO slant with him. Haven't seen that all year.

I think their feeling, and this is just my opinion, that the AAC is a much easier conference to get young guys on the field early and playing. The B1G is not nearly as easy. The player needs to be really exceptional.
Click to expand...
I hope this is the case and not a lack of development from the coaching staff. It makes sense in my simple mind
 




djlhuskerfan said:
I know Frost came into a team that was winless at UCF. But before that they had pretty good record for 4-5 years or so and there was some decent players there. I don't know what the situation was there that they had a winless season. Here coach Frost came into situation that had been trending downward for a while. At UCF he had to overcome one bad season as here it has been several.
Click to expand...
His OL was for the most part a bunch of returning guys. I think that helped him a ton. I just find it fascinating that on teams where they probably did have some talent, he was able to recruit 69 starts there for their championship run. And we are struggling to get more than 2 guys as full time starters.
 
ShortSideOption said:
His OL was for the most part a bunch of returning guys. I think that helped him a ton. I just find it fascinating that on teams where they probably did have some talent, he was able to recruit 69 starts there for their championship run. And we are struggling to get more than 2 guys as full time starters.
Click to expand...
Agree about the OL. When you put those figures out in black and white it makes me cringe
 
NUinID said:
Well, Frost and Co. are betting there future on basically red shirting this whole class. We will see if the strategy works. PJ Fleck I think went the other way. I haven't looked up anything, but I think he played a lot of true freshman early and took his lumps. He is now seeing the fruits of that.

I don't think Frost playing in the B1G, which a big boy O-line/D-line conference, thought any of his linemen were ready to play. I am not sure why he didn't play more Frosh skill players. I do see he has moved Hickman on the latest depth chart to WR. Maybe he is trying to get more size on the field. Maybe they can run an RPO slant with him. Haven't seen that all year.

I think their feeling, and this is just my opinion, that the AAC is a much easier conference to get young guys on the field early and playing. The B1G is not nearly as easy. The player needs to be really exceptional.
Click to expand...
Whats the big unknown is what is the best recipe for long-term sustained success. That's why I feel that we could be better right now in 2019 if Frost did things differently, but don't think it has a negative effect on our long-term success.

That said, PJ Fleck played close to 20 true freshmen last year in 2018. Look at what happened in 2019 for them. From our 2019 class, we've played, what, 4 or 5? This 2019 class can lay a foundation where we don't have to worry about playing young kids early come 2021 or 2022, but the redshirting has certainly created a delay. That 2018 class for the gophers only had 3 four star recruits and was only 7th or 8th in the B1G, yet they are now helping an undefeated top 10 team.

www.startribune.com

True freshmen into the fire: not just surviving – thriving for Gophers football

The kids are more than just all right at Minnesota.
www.startribune.com www.startribune.com
 
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Thats interesting. The flip side to that is what about the leaders of the team and the qualities of those players? Mike Hughes was a first round pick - we don't have one of those but maybe LJax will get taken higher than expected. Trysten Hill was a 2nd round pick - we don't have a DT making that type of impact. Shaquem Griffin (5th round pick) compared to ??? Mo Barry maybe? Tre'Quan Smith (3rd round pick) compared to our best WR in Stanley was an UFA. Jordan Akins was also a 3rd round pick.

So perhaps the quality of depth wasn't as good, so younger players could come in and make a more immediate impact at UCF, but the top of the our roster doesn't quite have the same level of talent? With players of that caliber, internal leadership maybe was less of an issue? Add to that a QB who made noticeable progress? If Martinez would be putting up numbers comparable to what Milton did his sophomore year, we'd be looking at this year much differently.
 
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1. Scott at UCF was very similar to The Bob Father at DONU in 1963. He inherits a team with talent that is under motivated and under coached in a league (AAC similar to Big 8) that is relatively easy to win. Then he presents them with an offensive system that is difficult to counter and a Heisman Trophy caliber QB to run it. (Milton vs Claridge: Dr Tom once said that Claridge was maybe as talented a QB as ever played at DONU, just didnt play in a system that showed it).

2. Coming here he found athletes that have played under multiple coaches and systems, no unifying direction in their collegiate careers except for one thing: losing!
The review of the defense by Hail Varsity today will make you want to cry in that in week 9, the defense still is not communicating even at a high school level. So LB's running a 4.3 won't get you anywhere if they cant learn who to cover 3/4 of the way through the season :(.
Our coaches must be so embarrassed thinking of the other teams laughing when they show our tapes to their offense.
DC Chin cant scheme when his players cant remember who their guys are and where they are supposed to go! ***, did you and your friends talk about this and what if anything you would do?

3. Historically Fleck is making a mistake playing all those freshman. One big year does not a future make.

It increases the chance for injury (they already lost their starting QB for the year) because freshman often aren't ready for Big Ten football.

DONU knows from experience that linemen benefit from physical maturity and S&C from the RS year.

And in the "modern era" players don't stay around for 4 and 5 years. They leave for the pros (see th DE for Ohio State, he is too good to play four years in college) or if they don't play a lot right away they hit the Transfer Portal.

RS players usually know why they are sitting out a year and have agreed to that plan for their future, especially with the four game rule.

GBR
 

NUinID said:
I think their feeling, and this is just my opinion, that the AAC is a much easier conference to get young guys on the field early and playing. The B1G is not nearly as easy. The player needs to be really exceptional.
Click to expand...

No question the AAC is different.
He had lightning in a bottle, motivated players and a whole different animal at UCF....
When you look around the country you see examples all over where teams are starting FR/SO in big time conferences, & they are successful generally speaking.
Lots of moving parts for DONU and no way fair for Frost to be compared to his UCF production/success. I do have faith that in a couple of recruiting classes we should start to see a good product on the field.
If not I’m going to need therapy.....
 
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