2012 Nebraska Season Prediction: 11-1 (based on Season Record contest entries)

[fjbfour]

EDIT: Data has been corrected, scroll down to correction post........

[huskrthill]

I know Arkansas St and Idaho St are not your typical mid-level teams, but 10% of the voters think they'll lose those games? That's crazy! I can only recall losing one non-conference regular season game to a non-BCS level school in my lifetime, and that was Southern Miss under Callahan in 2004.

Going back through the archives, there were losses to FSU and Penn State when they were Independents, but I'd still probably classify those teams as "BCS-level." You could MAYBE make an argument for FSU in 1980, and there was the bowl game loss to Arizona State in 1975 before they joined the Pac-10. I don't know a whole lot about Air Force in 1963, but that was the only other regular season non-conference loss to a non-BCS level opponent since Devaney.

The point is, the likelihood of losing to Arkansas St. or Idaho St. is pretty remote. Heck, even losing to Southern Miss again is pretty unlikely. We'll see, I guess. Just a little surprising.

[ThotDoc]

I'm assuming there is an error above on Wisconsin and that it is 23 L votes and not 223.

[fjbfour]

I'm assuming there is an error above on Wisconsin and that it is 23 L votes and not 223.

Actually it was supposed to be 22 instead of 223, but yes, you are correct. Thanks for pointing that out.

[fjbfour]

CORRECTIONS:

The spreadsheet calcs accidentally included blank entry columns without data (not properly cleared from last year's run) that were counted as loss picks.

The corrected prediction data is below. The picture is much rosier.



Game-by-game prediction breakdown:

Southern Miss
80 Win votes --- 0 Loss votes --- 100% confidence

at UCLA
79 W --- 1 L --- 99%

Arkansas St
80 W --- 0 L --- 100%

Idaho St
80 W --- 0 L --- 100%

Wisconsin
67 W --- 13 L --- 84%

at Ohio St
25 W --- 55 L --- 31%

at Northwestern
79 W --- 1 L --- 99%

Michigan
48 W --- 32 L --- 60%

at Michigan St
50 W --- 30 L --- 63%

Penn St
78 W --- 2 L --- 98%

Minnesota
80 W --- 0 L --- 100%

at Iowa
74 W --- 6 L --- 93%

[CombatTargeteer]

I know Arkansas St and Idaho St are not your typical mid-level teams, but 10% of the voters think they'll lose those games? That's crazy! I can only recall losing one non-conference regular season game to a non-BCS level school in my lifetime, and that was Southern Miss under Callahan in 2004.

Going back through the archives, there were losses to FSU and Penn State when they were Independents, but I'd still probably classify those teams as "BCS-level." You could MAYBE make an argument for FSU in 1980, and there was the bowl game loss to Arizona State in 1975 before they joined the Pac-10. I don't know a whole lot about Air Force in 1963, but that was the only other regular season non-conference loss to a non-BCS level opponent since Devaney.

The point is, the likelihood of losing to Arkansas St. or Idaho St. is pretty remote. Heck, even losing to Southern Miss again is pretty unlikely. We'll see, I guess. Just a little surprising.

AF was 7-4 in the '63 season losing to North Carolina 35-0 in the Gator Bowl.