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Thread: 2012 Nebraska Season Prediction: 11-1 (based on Season Record contest entries)

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    2012 Nebraska Season Prediction: 11-1 (based on Season Record contest entries)

    EDIT: Data has been corrected, scroll down to correction post........
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  2. #2
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    I know Arkansas St and Idaho St are not your typical mid-level teams, but 10% of the voters think they'll lose those games? That's crazy! I can only recall losing one non-conference regular season game to a non-BCS level school in my lifetime, and that was Southern Miss under Callahan in 2004.

    Going back through the archives, there were losses to FSU and Penn State when they were Independents, but I'd still probably classify those teams as "BCS-level." You could MAYBE make an argument for FSU in 1980, and there was the bowl game loss to Arizona State in 1975 before they joined the Pac-10. I don't know a whole lot about Air Force in 1963, but that was the only other regular season non-conference loss to a non-BCS level opponent since Devaney.

    The point is, the likelihood of losing to Arkansas St. or Idaho St. is pretty remote. Heck, even losing to Southern Miss again is pretty unlikely. We'll see, I guess. Just a little surprising.

  3. #3
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    I'm assuming there is an error above on Wisconsin and that it is 23 L votes and not 223.
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  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThotDoc View Post
    I'm assuming there is an error above on Wisconsin and that it is 23 L votes and not 223.
    Actually it was supposed to be 22 instead of 223, but yes, you are correct. Thanks for pointing that out.
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  5. #5
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    CORRECTIONS:

    The spreadsheet calcs accidentally included blank entry columns without data (not properly cleared from last year's run) that were counted as loss picks.

    The corrected prediction data is below. The picture is much rosier.



    Game-by-game prediction breakdown:

    Southern Miss
    80 Win votes --- 0 Loss votes --- 100% confidence

    at UCLA
    79 W --- 1 L --- 99%

    Arkansas St
    80 W --- 0 L --- 100%

    Idaho St
    80 W --- 0 L --- 100%

    Wisconsin
    67 W --- 13 L --- 84%

    at Ohio St
    25 W --- 55 L --- 31%

    at Northwestern
    79 W --- 1 L --- 99%

    Michigan
    48 W --- 32 L --- 60%

    at Michigan St
    50 W --- 30 L --- 63%

    Penn St
    78 W --- 2 L --- 98%

    Minnesota
    80 W --- 0 L --- 100%

    at Iowa
    74 W --- 6 L --- 93%
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  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by huskrthill View Post
    I know Arkansas St and Idaho St are not your typical mid-level teams, but 10% of the voters think they'll lose those games? That's crazy! I can only recall losing one non-conference regular season game to a non-BCS level school in my lifetime, and that was Southern Miss under Callahan in 2004.

    Going back through the archives, there were losses to FSU and Penn State when they were Independents, but I'd still probably classify those teams as "BCS-level." You could MAYBE make an argument for FSU in 1980, and there was the bowl game loss to Arizona State in 1975 before they joined the Pac-10. I don't know a whole lot about Air Force in 1963, but that was the only other regular season non-conference loss to a non-BCS level opponent since Devaney.

    The point is, the likelihood of losing to Arkansas St. or Idaho St. is pretty remote. Heck, even losing to Southern Miss again is pretty unlikely. We'll see, I guess. Just a little surprising.
    AF was 7-4 in the '63 season losing to North Carolina 35-0 in the Gator Bowl.







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